idk, i feel that Iran's long term survival and success hinges on either getting a nuke and/or building a conventional modern airforce and air defense systems at scale (by approaching China and Russia with the desperation their position dictates and doing and giving up everything they can to get whatever they can from them, something that they havent remotely done by now) for Israel and the US being unable to do what they have been doing. Also purge a lot of people. Yeah they probably shouldnt accept any loopsided ceasefire right now but at some point they will have to even if it still isnt in their favor and create a relatively stable enviroment to chase the above goals without israeli airplanes and mossad agents strolling around above and on the ground.
geikei
Ukraine was doing everything they could to become a western client state and get into every western alliance and militray program they could. It was and is on its knees constantly begging for air defenses and alliences and a billion US troops on its ground. It had a hundreds of soviet Air defense systems already and it was training and intergrating with western systems for a decade. What has Iran actualy done regarding its relations and approachment with China.
There have been a bunch of comments showing how it was dragging its feet in closer military and economic ties with China, due to the reformists looking with one eye west yes but also because they didnt want to be under Russian or Chinese influence and a junior partner to such a relation. Its a big boy country that made its own choices and other powers will act also based on Iranian willingness, actions and what it asks for, what it accepts and has to offer. I made a longer comment here https://hexbear.net/comment/6248893 .
Beyond that and as far as military supplies go, its a question of what systems and how and if they can even be used. China running in to now give modern air defenses and aircrafts is unrealistic for multiple reasons. They would be useless to iranians without extensive months long training and a complicated intergrated ecosystem they operate under. Also with the degree of mossad penetration and Israel depth of opperations and the US joining in the chances these would fall into their hands are pretty high and at this stage of the game its something China wouldnt want. Giving Iran long range rockets and missiles (also launchers cause other wise its useless) isnt impossible but China's rocket force is one of its greatest focuses given their needs and Taiwan and US placement in the pacific. Giving them in any large scale to Iran would have an impact in their magazine. Also they dont wanna speed up a Taiwan crisis by making sure US goes unhinged in the equipment and military stuff they send to Taiwan, where the US is still afraid to do any big moves. Drones, drone parts, electronics and material to build weapons are already sourced from China by iran in a large degree and we have no idea if they are picking up and it wouldnt be surprising if they are. Normal Ground war millitary stuff Iran doesnt even need as of now and if they do we will see if and what they source from China.
You are correct but there have to be other historical, geographic and even cultural factors taken into account if one is to explian how vassals of similar economic scale and size like Canada, UK or Germany , that on paper should actually have more independent power and policy making vs the US relative to Japan, seem more willing to eat shit and die on America's directive.
Japan's proximity to the emerging dominant superpower in China and their much greater economic entaglement. A collective trauma from the plaza accords informing theor strategy now. A historicaly more nationalist and sovereign minded view of themselves and cultural attitude. The actual total war and surrender they "suffered" purely in the hand sof the US and the following occupation. Maybe the fact that they werent the ground zero nearly as much gladio and CIA activity compared to some European countries for most of the post war period. Maybe with the LDP being a one party state and the constitution being US written their political development in recent decades saw less of an industry of US led think tank/ngo politician incubation and training. In general the fact that the US is in Asia but isnt of Asia. The region and japan may have a more historicaly continuous collective memory, cultural and ethnic dynamics, national relations, spheres of influence etc etc spanning hundreds if not thousands of years. Being without the US as the major player and hegemonic power isnt something that alien or disqualifyingly uncomfortable
Japan is probably extremely annoyed with the tarrif and trade negotiations and that informs how much they jump on the US train on other matters at the momment. Maybe they are a vassal state but not a VASSAL state and there is some hope for them. Since at least they are showing some stiff resistance to the US saying "blow up your ailing economy and industry completely for america and trump". At least way more than what the germans and british are showed and show
A large chunk of the country containing the most important agricultural and energy rich regions being occupied by US compradors is way beyond "airstrikes" and it is what hampered the Syrian state's ability to adequetly feed and provide modern electricity and heating services to its population year round. Also besides the memes, the Assad "regime" was significantly more corrupt, violent, incompetent and hollowed out compared to the Iranian state. Due to the circumstances and civil war sure, but at the end of the day the way that shaped public opinion and willingeness and capacity to defend it matter
Idk why DJI stock exploding would have much to do with the Israeli wars in the region. The ukraine war by far the place where drones have continuously being proven as the future of walfare, and where most innovation and demand for drone and drone parts comes from regarding military uses. By an order of magnitude. If the rise in stock is for military reasons and demand is way more likely that it follows the trend of proliferation based on the Ukraine war and the subsequent investments and race from all great powers to use those lessons and focus in that production. Compared to that Israeli use and demand for drones is relatively mundane
They are just buttering up Trump. Maybe this is a good sign, meaning that they could have refused concrete commitments regarding israel-iran or US launching opperations with pakistani collaboration or from their space. And so they had to at least go all in in the "trump amazing diplomat deserves nobel prize saved the world" stuff. It doesnt cost anything
They made some deal on extending existing export licences and loosening controls for 6 months but china has put up a lot of bureaucratic hurdles in aquiring licences, making excuses for not sending stuff and demanding proof of use and sensitive information. The deal wasnt anything concrete and binding, just "we'll look into it and let you get some more". So that the hole in inventories isnt and wont be replenished and scarcity will continue. Hell china has slowed down in the digging up, buying and refining volumes already and those havent even picked up post "deal"
They played a role in couping Khan but the military stooges put in place still moved the country closer to China than ever before. No matter how far cia ops and bribes go in Pakistan the sheer size and dependency and need for China in almost every way still wins out so Pakistan can and does act against US interests
Pakistan at this point is way to deep into China's sphere of influence for US bribes and cia ops to move mountains. Like yeah the US played a role in khans arrest and overthrow but the following military junta still almost immediately and to this day did not take a single step away from China. On the contrary it deepened intergration and dependency radically. China is simply to big and too important for pakistan geopoliticaly, military and economicaly for them to be "on the poket of the cia" . Their entire state, economy and military deterents would collapse without continuously deepening relations with China through ways the US can simply can not or would not (due to india) provide. Cia ops , bribes etc are fine and all but 1. China can do them as well, especially in their backyard and 1. They end up secondary to the sheer economic and geopolitical impact China can throw around and offer Pakistan. The US can try to put compradors in place but ironically these compradors would end up moving the country closer to china regardless due to the actual reality and politics of having to run that country and keep their regional positioning.
If this community actualy thought that China's only chance of saving themselves from western domination is becoming an active party in the Iran-Israel-US war (spoiler alert, Iran didnt even ask them to or ever did anything to create that contigency) then maybe we shouldnt get our money up, we dont deserve any Ws associated with us and should instead focus on groupwatches of China clickbait youtube videos and group reads of non communist geopolitical expert subtracks with readership of 500 people. Because apparently thats the level of understanding of China, the world economy and relevant trajectories we are capable of