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Israeli is giving off quite a few serious tells right now regarding Iran’s success thus far, and I think they are worth discussing.

We are hearing that Iran is firing a handful of missiles at a time now, 3-12ish range. Despite censorship efforts by Israel, we are still getting a slow drip of footage of these handfuls of Iranian missiles connecting with targets in Israel. From this, we can deduce that Iran is having a much higher success rate than earlier barrages, because it certainly doesn’t seem like we have seen that many fewer impacts comparatively.

Additionally, we’ve noticed fewer anti-missile defense munitions in footage of missile barrages. While some areas like Tel Aviv will still have a high ratio of anti-missile munitions to missiles in the air, we are seeing fewer around military installations and other places outside of Israel’s urban core. We are also seeing attempts to use cheaper intercept munitions on ballistic missiles, and have had footage of kinetic intercept munitions connecting with Iranian ballistic missiles and literally getting shot straight through while the missile continues on unaffected.

To me, this screams that Israel believes Iran is in this for the long haul, and that Israel is concerned about anti-missile munition stockpiles. On top of this, the media/internet censorship of Israel accompanied with banning citizens from leaving the country on flights is also telling that they are very afraid of creating a mass panic and exodus from the country. Personally, I believe that Israel and Iran have both identified Iran’s win condition: shatter the myth of Israeli superiority to their neighbors and scare enough people away that Israel begins becoming unsustainable.

Fetterman is baying for war.

John Fetterman on Fox News calls for the United States to get engaged in Iran war:

"I think it's a great start with the 30,000-pound bunker busters. Just keep dropping them until you can actually confirm what exactly happened to them. We have the tools... we have to just, again, finish it out."

https://bsky.app/profile/justinbaragona.bsky.social/post/3lrsos7yw5k2l

Vid at the link.

Don’t believe everything you read on Twitter and don’t use it as an excuse to doom

“Tehran denies western media reports about 'seeking mediation' to end war

Iran has targeted Israel with ballistic missiles every day since the war began, and has vowed to intensify its strikes”

https://thecradle.co/articles/tehran-denies-western-media-reports-about-seeking-mediation-to-end-war

Trump is about to severely miscalculate, the dumb fuck

May they sink a fuckin whole ass carrier

Update on the US military buildup against Iran. 17 mid air refueling aircraft on the move. F-35s and F-16s confirmed in tow, F-22s highly likely, and F-15Es suspected.

Source of one of the air trackers

Lots of bombings taking place throughout Western Iran and Tehran, as expected and has happened over the past few days.

Al Jazeera

New missiles launched from Iran spotted over Tel Aviv, occupied West Bank

According to reports in Israel, up to 10 missiles have been launched from Iran. A short while ago, sirens sounded in Amman. Just as we were coming on air, they sounded in Amman another siren, indicating that the missiles were not over Jordanian airspace any more. They were sighted over the occupied West Bank and Tel Aviv.

At this time, there are no confirmed reports of missile impacts. Israeli medical and emergency services have not reported treating any injuries. There is also no visual confirmation of any strikes so far. The area in Israel where alarms have been triggered is extensive, stretching beyond the boundaries of the larger Tel Aviv district.

On Air Force One - Trump told a CNN reporter why he left G7 ~44 seconds - https://www.youtube.com/shorts/KkjPW42OFf4

Now both sides aren't allowing anything to be shown, guess I'll have to buy a ticket to see shit live

About an hour ago Trump posted a creepy, fundie screenshot of a post written by Mike Huckabee. I put that shot into a "image to text" website. I couldn't find a single transcription. Fucking US media.

From Mike Huckabee, a Pastor, Politician, Ambassador, and Great Person!

Mr President, God spared you in Butler, PA to be the most consequential President in a century-maybe ever. The decisions on your shoulders I would not want to be made by anyone else. You have many voices speaking to you Sir, but there is only ONE voice that matters. HIS voice. I am your appointed servant in this land and am available for you but I do not try to get in your presence often because I trust your instincts.

No President in my lifetime has been in a position like yours. Not since Truman in 1945. I don't reach out to persuade you. Only to encourage you. I believe you will hear from heaven and that voice is far more important than mine or ANYONE else's. You sent me to Israel to be your eyes, ears and voice and to make sure our flag flies above our embassy. My job is to be the last one to leave. I will not abandon this post. Our flag will NOT come down! You did not seek this moment.

This moment sought YOU! It is my honor to serve you! Mike Huckabee

Trump certainly has supporters who need ALT text. I guess they have to transcribe their hero's screenshots again and again and again and again and...

NYT

Israel will no longer be able to provide its civilians with a 15-to-30-minute warning ahead of incoming Iranian missiles, a practice it largely maintained since Iran’s counterattack began, Lt. Col. Tali Varsano Eisman, an officer in the Israeli Home Front Command. She told N12, an Israeli TV channel, that the military now faces “difficulties in identifying” missiles fired on Israel and recommended that people spend the night in shelters or close to a safe space. She did not elaborate on why.

The Israeli military said in a statement that there are no changes in the Home Front Command’s guidelines, adding that “if there are any updates, they will be communicated through the official channels.”

Is there any refutation of zei_squirell's post from the other day that I can read up on? This war's forecast seems heavily in the US/Israel's favor.

NYT

2 minutes ago

People across central Israel just received cell phone warnings instructing them to find shelter ahead of an imminent missile attack.

Still seeing a lot of talk on here about the Fordow nuclear facility in Iran. The source I'm using for this writeup is by the Royal United Services Institute, a British military think tank. The whole report is here: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/challenges-involved-military-strikes-against-irans-nuclear-programme

So they do a good overview of the depth of various Iranian nuclear facilities, and most Western analysts agree the depth of Fordow is between 80-90 metres, not the some 800 metres being thrown around here. Still very deep, but well within potential for a strike by the United States. As they write:

Firstly, the penetration achievable with each weapon will vary greatly depending on the material covering each target. A weapon that can penetrate through tens of meters of packed earth or sand may only penetrate a few meters of standard civilian construction-grade concrete, and even less reinforced, high-density concrete. Furthermore, most of the Iranian facilities are likely to be covered by different layers of reinforced concrete, rock, packed earth and potentially other materials.

For the FFEP [Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant] and new facility at Natanz at an estimated 80-100 meters, possibly with layers of reinforced concrete, even the GBU-57/B [the Big Bomb only the B2 stealth bomber can carry] would likely require multiple impacts at the same aiming point to have a good chance of penetrating the facility. Strikes with lesser penetrating weapons could still collapse entry and exit tunnels given good intelligence about their exact layout and location (with some information already available in open-source satellite imagery analysis). However, unless a longer-term campaign were mounted with regular follow-up strikes, efforts to dig down to the facilities to re-establish access and supplies would likely begin almost immediately.

Of course, even if such a strike is successful, as they and others argue it would ultimately not degrade Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons by any significant degree.

The practical challenges of carrying out attacks against dispersed and hardened facilities makes clear the infeasibility of relying strictly on a military solution to the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear programme, likely necessitating a major operation to penetrate hardened facilities and/or degrade Iranian air defences. As has been repeatedly argued elsewhere, the highly dispersed nature and advanced state of the Iranian nuclear programme – including extensive latent expertise within the Iranian scientific community – further complicates efforts to eliminate the nuclear programme by military means. For this reason, any comparisons with Israeli attacks against Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 and Syria’s Al-Kibar facility in 2007 are highly misplaced. In both instances, the attacked countries’ programmes were highly concentrated and at a nascent stage, relying extensively on foreign assistance for their development. Following any military strike on its nuclear sites, Iran not only has the requisite indigenous expertise but will also have increased incentive to rebuild, and to rebuild deeper and more hardened facilities.

Shaded 238 jet powered drone shot down over Iraq

Shaded shot down over Syria by an AIM-9 Sidewinder, I've censored the faces.

Looks like the survivability of jet powered drones is not much higher than the propeller driven drones.