geikei

They made some deal on extending existing export licences and loosening controls for 6 months but china has put up a lot of bureaucratic hurdles in aquiring licences, making excuses for not sending stuff and demanding proof of use and sensitive information. The deal wasnt anything concrete and binding, just "we'll look into it and let you get some more". So that the hole in inventories isnt and wont be replenished and scarcity will continue. Hell china has slowed down in the digging up, buying and refining volumes already and those havent even picked up post "deal"

They played a role in couping Khan but the military stooges put in place still moved the country closer to China than ever before. No matter how far cia ops and bribes go in Pakistan the sheer size and dependency and need for China in almost every way still wins out so Pakistan can and does act against US interests

Pakistan at this point is way to deep into China's sphere of influence for US bribes and cia ops to move mountains. Like yeah the US played a role in khans arrest and overthrow but the following military junta still almost immediately and to this day did not take a single step away from China. On the contrary it deepened intergration and dependency radically. China is simply to big and too important for pakistan geopoliticaly, military and economicaly for them to be "on the poket of the cia" . Their entire state, economy and military deterents would collapse without continuously deepening relations with China through ways the US can simply can not or would not (due to india) provide. Cia ops , bribes etc are fine and all but 1. China can do them as well, especially in their backyard and 1. They end up secondary to the sheer economic and geopolitical impact China can throw around and offer Pakistan. The US can try to put compradors in place but ironically these compradors would end up moving the country closer to china regardless due to the actual reality and politics of having to run that country and keep their regional positioning.

There is a lot of plausible deniability in intelligence sharing so there is and will be a lot of wiggle room for China so it wouldnt surprise me if they do it or of they already have. No one is really focused on them in the grand sceme of things of this war compared to the scale and publicity of western intelligence operations and sharing in ukraine

I dont think so , platforms like these it seem way to way too overkill just to know some oil facility was bombed or that some blockade action was taken like 20 minutes earlier than they would otherwise . At the very least they are there to colllect data of cutting edge american platforms in deployment/use

@[email protected] apparently China just (not just , like 3 days ago) deployed 2x 815A electronic surveillance ships to the Persian Gulf which are some of their most modern platforms. They claimed its for antipiracy patrols but come on lol. So ,any thoughts on implications. Would it be just to pick up and collect data from f-35s and B2 deployments ? What intelligence/data sharing they could provide to iran, in real time or not, that can make a differenece defensively and offensively given whatever the capabilities iran still has. help with shot downs, ship targeting , early warning idk. Any change in movements and deployments they may force the US to do just by being there and the threat of the above?

A cope sci-fi scenario would be that China could position some j20 in bvr range or some AD battery hidden and actualy shot down a f35 or more so likely the bomber especially since the latter would have a predictable path to the nuclear site. Would the US missions even have awacs support themselves or would they be going in blind like Israel since Iran is a non threat for these platforms? Retrieving some wreckage would be very valuable for China tbh. Like if they shot smth down over iran how could the US even prove it? Iran would claim shotdown and the US would look like moron losers if they claimed china helped. Wont happen but its fun to imagine

vance wasnt even in the security meeting lmao loser

A lot of her own commentary and conclusions should be thrown out of the window but what should be taken more seriously is Iran's own willingness, agency and urgency to become a close partner with China and the large missgivings it had in openning itself to inevitable chinese influence. And how that carries blame for their relationship with China not being in a position where China could or would do more. A lot of the examples she brings up through the thread are real indications of Iran dragging their feet, not trusting China, having a "we are a great power, not east not west and with no need to be in the sphere of influence of other greater powers, we got this" attitude and indecisiveness and not acting with the desperation, yes, their actual position. Either now or 5 years ago, China should not be more desperate for closer alliance, military or otherwise, than Iran itself is willing and desperate to seek the very same things from China.

Well its not a military partnership in any way. The fact that it was mainly Iran that was dragging its feet on the greenlighting of the comprehensive security partnership until they were literally being bombed and after the 8th time of "fell for it again award" regarding western diplomacy and attempt should throw some cold water both on the possibility of dirrect russian involvement and more so Iran's on own urgency and internal political will to form close alliances (and yes dependencies) to Russia and China over the last whatever years

Some things they could try sure? Whole spectrum overstates it. Especially for stuff that could have immediate impact AND iran would cooperate with (or wanted to cooperate with for years now).

As far as military supplies go, its a question of what systems and how and if they can even be used. China running in to now give modern air defenses and aircrafts is unrealistic for multiple reasons. They would be useless to iranians without extensive months long training and a complicated intergrated ecosystem they operate under. Also with the degree of mossad penetration and Israel depth of opperations and the US joining in the chances these would fall into their hands are pretty high and at this stage of the game its something China wouldnt want. Giving Iran long range rockets and missiles (also launchers cause other wise its useless) isnt impossible but China's rocket force is one of its greatest focuses given their needs and Taiwan and US placement in the pacific. Giving them in any large scale to Iran would have an impact in their magazine. Also they dont wanna speed up a Taiwan crisis by making sure US goes unhinged in the equipment and military stuff they send to Taiwan, where the US is still afraid to do any big moves. Drones, drone parts, electronics and material to build weapons are already sourced from China by iran in a large degree and we have no idea if they are picking up and it wouldnt be surprising if they are. Normal Ground war millitary stuff Iran doesnt even need as of now and if they do we will see if and what they source from China.

So other than that its either making nuclear threats or full on economic warfare against Israel and/or the US over this. For Israel i agree that they should have done so but i wonder if that could actualy make a large impact on israels war effort and economy on its own. I talked about it here https://hexbear.net/comment/6199174 . Basicaly without also sanctioning the US and the entire west AND all the useless arab countries Israel would most likely be held afloat by its patrons and get all the stuff it gets now from china by rerouting through like every other country in the world. Just stopping. Its not a normal country and not that big of an economy with the entire west subsidizing its entire existance already. And they obviously wont engage on an aggressive economic war with the US and the EU over iran and israel without even being sure it will succeed. They should try but its not some war stopping trap card, as sanctions rarely are

Literally no global south's goverment was or is under any delusion that China would militarily intervene and fight a war against the US and Israel in Iran. No country was basing any amount of the relations it builts with China on any assumption that they would militarily intervene to defend them. What more most know that China doesnt even have the capability to do so in 90% of the globe currently. If China helps and doesn’t have the means to affect the concrete outcome by force in Iran that would be much worse for its credibility. Beyond military intervention any developing country wanting to create some deterence against the US and their allies can at this point can approach China and try to get in line to buy some non western modern military equipment. Or join some military coordination and tech sharing (for older stuff but still). If they really want to get under China's sphere of influence and protection they can go to Beijing and ask to host Chinese military bases. I cant tell you how positive China's response would be in each individual case and approachment but why tf would any country expect China to use military and economic force protect them if they dont attempt any of these stuff. I made a comment yesterday wondering if Iran even did these stuff earnestly or attempted and expected in any shape or form to have China intervene and help them militarily. Ah and iran also shows that China will trade with you even if you are under economic warfare from the west, which is more usual than actual invasions and matters to countries even more

The oil and blockade stuff quickly becomes irrelevant given the fact that China cant actualy be blockaded by the US or any allies the US can muster in any significant capacity and even if that was attempted it by definition would include blockading the entire EA from energy and other imputs as well, including Taiwan, Japan and worst Korea. Even if there is regime change and the US somehow manages to force all gulf nations plus new Iran to turn of the oil valve , or the US tries to close the straight of whatever, 90% of SEA and EA countries will implode months before China is even notably hurt by it with taiwan being first to. Its a scenario only for redditors. There are other reasons regarding changes in chinese oil needs, overseas routes and availability, rapid changes China can force domesticaly in a time of crisis that make it even less likely for China to be seriously hurt it even in that phantasy scenario