Image is of the damage caused by an Iranian Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile in Israel, causing dozens of injuries.
Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
If this community actualy thought that China's only chance of saving themselves from western domination is becoming an active party in the Iran-Israel-US war (spoiler alert, Iran didnt even ask them to or ever did anything to create that contigency) then maybe we shouldnt get our money up, we dont deserve any Ws associated with us and should instead focus on groupwatches of China clickbait youtube videos and group reads of non communist geopolitical expert subtracks with readership of 500 people. Because apparently thats the level of understanding of China, the world economy and relevant trajectories we are capable of
It’s more the general inaction as genocide and imperialism gets closer and closer to their borders, sorry for any confusion
I agree regarding the lack of trade embargo and economic coercion against israel despite having written before how i think it would end up symbolic and not stop the genocide, they should still have done it. Imperialism has been in their borders for half a century in pretty much the same capacity it is now. The only thing that changed is that the balance of hard power now favors China for the first time and will increasingly do so with each passing year. SOft power as well but thats another talk. China knows where imperilism is and is coming from and has made the necessary decisions and has built the hard power to kick its ass when it finaly attacks in desperation. Iran should have done the same with similar urgency and focus. And thats the only thing that matters, cause china is simply too big to be salami sliced, contained, embargoed or stopped by all these ohh so smart economical and geopolitical games. The US could put a comprador regime next to them and that regime will still be forced to continue the same amount of trade and relations with China because their entire economy and state couldnt function otherwise. It is and will become increasingly clear that Imperialism could only hope to actualy achieve its objectives regarding China by an an actual desperation war with not great chances for them and at the same time thats its the only way for imperialism to be kicked away from its borders, where it has been as i said for most of its modern history. Either imperialism will chicken out out given it will probably lose, try and nuke the plannet, try without nuking the plannet and probably losing with a slim chance of success. Whether some reformist becomes leader of Iran and now China only gets the oil it increasingly needs less off without discount and no massive economic cooperation happens with Iran (which the current regime also has been dragging its feet ) doesnt move the needly remotely enough to matter for an actual conflict between China and "the imperialism in its borders"
We shall see. I’d bet on the sea levels rising up to that one tower in Shanghai before they confront the imperialists ravaging the world
maybe whatever, but not confronting them in Iran certainly doesnt say shit about whether they will or not in the literal theater and situation everyone knows they will be fighting
I love Hexbear but the geopolitical discourse here is surprisingly naive.
This kind of naive, incoherent and doomerist posting is pretty damn recent, and has basically been escalating since October 7th, with this being the most fevered pitch, which I can barely read anymore because it is so all over the place, and so depressed that it reminds me of how people were posting about the Kursk incursion.
Now mind you, this isn't that, but the idea that we have been able to accurately predict, either positively or negatively, exactly what is going on is laughable, and the amount of doomer screeds and even fairly silly hopium based around that is insane rn. I may as well go talk to some ultras if I wanted to be this armchair general upset.
I don't know if the news mega recently took a nosedive in geopolitical awareness or if it was always this bad but I haven't notice. People were unironically thinking Iran would become another Syria if Khamenei got assassinated, never mind that Assad is still alive so whatever argument they had about a country collapsing when the head of state gets assassinated makes no sense when using Syria as an example. Iran also hasn't suffered through a decade+ civil war.
People were unironically thinking that China would be encircled, never mind that China was actually encircled during the 70s with not a single non-hostile country bordering it save for Pakistan. During the late 60s and 70s, China had border conflicts with at least 4 countries (Soviet Union, India, Vietnam, DPRK). China's nearby waters were also next to countries completely hostile to the PRC (ROK, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia). Hong Kong was still a British colony. China had to deal with Asian NATO called SEATO when it was far weaker than it is today.
But SEATO is no more while the PRC is still around. Every country save for India and the Philippines has much warmer relationship with China, Hong Kong and Macau are now part of China, and almost every single separatist movements, even Taiwanese separatism to a certain extent, have been defeated and discredited. The imperialists went from supporting Tibetan separatism, an actual formidable separatism given the demographic and terrain, to supporting Uyghur separatism, a separatism that doesn't have any real demographic advantage, and Hong Kong separatism, a separatism that is DOA because Mainlanders hate Hong Kongers anyways.
Pretty L shitty comment, some superiority complex nonsense trying to argue "the CPC knows better" when It clearly doesn't matter how many effort posts one makes showing how China is following neoliberal reform advice from westerners and the Biden admin.
That dipshit Carl Zha literaly dropping the mask "Chinese people don't owe you anything." I'd rather certain people embrace their inner ghoulish and abandon the banner of communism than to continue this shitty larping.
If the global south can't demand anything from China, not even a fucking token gesture because "geopolitics too complex for you to understand" then I'd rather they stop larping as a socialist, they could be nothing further from it.
Yes we better watch the YT grifters I agree, at least it feels much better to clap on every "China W" delusional shit than to admit they've never really pledged anything. We're idealistic, sitting here thinking we're building world communism while in reality we're already in bed with the ghouls who are destroying the world.
Correct.
"Some foreigners with full bellies and nothing better to do engage in finger-pointing at us. First, China does not export revolution; second, it does not export famine and poverty; and third, it does not mess around with you. So what else is there to say?" -Xi Jinping
I recognize your username and I appreciate many of your contributions to the news mega in general, but what is it that you expected China to do to in this situation? I'm genuinely asking, how should China have responded?
Should they have drawn themselves (including their 1.5 billion civilians) into a hot war between the fascist, collapsing U.S. state and the repressive, theocratic state of Iran? Is this the hill to die on? Let's go nuclear!