BynarsAreOk

The thing is and this might be yet again stating the obvious, how is this a China win?

If "Israel running out of [insert key resource/weapon"] is such a great 5d play then why didn't China already embargo Israel over the last 18 months of genocide, couldn't they see that continuing to support Israel would lead to them continuing their aggression? The 5d chess players couldn't even play the 1st move of checkers, perhaps if Israel were under such an embargo there wouldn't even be a war with Iran right now. In fact, hey Xi if you're still listening, the best time to stop trading and sustaining Israel's economy was 18 months ago, the second best time is today, just saying.

But the elephant in the room is that this wasn't a 5d move or a principled act, China only reacted after being pressured by Trump's tariffs. Yet they welcomed Biden's admin in 2024 with open arms even as the Biden team pressured them to change their economy.

The elephant in the room is if Trump wasn't an idiot pivoting from big plot to big plot to get his desperate huge W, if he had simply started the Iran war before pressuring China with the tariffs there would certainly be no rare earth ban right now.

That the CPC was pressured against the wall and forced to use the rare earth ban for leverage now allegedly causes inconvenience to Israel is just a happy coincidence. We need quite a bit more of those for meaningful change and it is pitiful to portray this as some 5d chess.

You are literaly one of the most responsible(and South Africa's coal etc) for Israel to remain stable enough to function as a society right now, zero self-awareness from the grifters right now, can't even read the damn room.

That is the thing, I agree with you, but the US is self sufficient and the EU already gets LNG from the US now so whose outputs are getting reduced by 30%? Maybe the EU is at some risk but not the US and if we say the global south again, I don't think anyone actualy cares about it, we`re in the endgame where as far as everyone is concerned the "world economy" is just an euphemism for US and China.

Again back to the point this could just lead to another commodities boom that benefited the OG BRICS back in 2005-2010. Today's BRICS aren't concerned about oil hurting industry since we have none. Except from China all of BRICS are primarily commodity exporters not industrialized nations.

The biggest losers in all of this would be the global south seeing food prices skyrocket like in 2022.

I do not think institutional investors will let oil e.g Brent go over 100-120 in the worst case. Assume they could be wrong by 2x, hitting 200+ seems like a WW3 scenario and Gulf oil is very short of that yet.

There is absolutely way too money to be made by manipulating the price up and down.

They have spent the last 2 years pushing the China "weak demand" narrative in order to push oil price down. There are billions and who knows how many huge players deeply invested into shorting oil for the long term. Some of them are getting out now but not everyone, in fact nothing ever happens gang exist in the financial market too and the "China weak demand" narrative will stay dominant.

I think we should consider that the ME oil = world economy narrative may be overestimated.

The US is self sufficient already and they're also supplying the EU. The "world economy" is already in shambles, the EU is in a recession since 2022, yes markets will crash, commodity prices skyrocket, but we should consider that in actual practice the impact on the west may not be as big as people are assuming here.

The calculation may well be the pain is worth it because the US isn't going to be the one suffering the most. If this is what they believe then all this calculation based on "the US can't do X because it would destroy the Gulf oil production" is moot.

Also it goes without saying it is China the one to lose out the most if we have another commodities boom. It is China the one primarily looking for cheap oil and cheap food, not the US.

I think you're closer to the truth here, still saying the hits were on warehouses etc still begs the questions about workers and security on site etc these are military facilities after all.

Obviously the counterpoint is given they would know such a strike is coming eventually its hard to imagine precautions around this aren't already in place.

For once 100% agreement here.

Their "involvement" matters when the Iranians and the Palestinians stop dying. IMO some YT grifter using western MSM headlines which we know more than half the time are made to justify the infinitely expanding US MIC spending is not serious narrative at this point.

Yes Israel is running out of bombs and missiles. So anyway another bomb dropped in Gaza and Iran is still about to get nuked.

https://www.lemonde.fr/videos/video/2025/06/18/guerre-en-ukraine-au-sein-de-la-3e-brigade-d-assaut-ukrainienne-des-centaines-de-soldats-arborent-toujours-des-symboles-neonazis_6614140_1669088.html

No benefit yet. It would only galvanize the lib-baby socialist pipeline on social media.

The right completely dominates YT and streaming now, except for some niches on tiktok. Hasan stands out not because he is particularly great but because he is the only big figure remaining. For example Asmongold is living in a basement, proudly proclaims doesn't take a baths and literaly have dead rats around him. Someone like that already managed to rise to the top of "politics" streaming.

If they're truly concious about this it would be a mistake to open up the left wing social media sphere to creators more radical than Hasan. He does far more good than bad overall, but he is not radicalizing towards any movement yet.

"Whoever wants to win me will have to walk more than me in the streets, talk more with the people and do more than me. And I doubt that among those who are now, there is anyone capable," Lula expressed firmly.

They could do that or you know, just point out you try to cut the already meager social welfare for literally poor and disabled people in the most unequal country in the world. Maybe point out you dance and squirm like a worm trying to justify your neoliberal appointed ghoul keeps raising the interest rate which literally now sits at 15% which is the historical high. Maybe point out there have been severe scandals in your government including the latest social security pension scandal that is making your shit government incredibly unpopular. How you literaly promised to reverse the privatization of Eletrobras but after 3 years you cowardly piece of shit refused to even take the issue to congress.

I'm sorry this is worse than slop, who cares about what this ghoul is saying?

And obviously it's a regime change operation, it's called Operation Rising Lion. Anyone familiar with Persian history will immediately get the reference to the sun and lion, part of Iran's flag until the Islamic Revolution.

Interesting, not sure many people noticed that even here, I certainly didn't.

People just refuse to understand Israel isn't Ukraine and this isn't Graham's "we're killing Iranians ~~Russians~~ for cheap" kind of war.