BynarsAreOk

Even I don't think they'll be stupid enough to do that this time lol.

Then again for those who missed the reference, this is what they're talking about. China calls for Houthis to respect rights of navigation in Red Sea..

It is not just de-escalating, who cares about that. My issue is they constantly pander to bullshit "international law" shit. The same international "law" China "violates" when they take a dump on US vassal Philippine ships on the SCS. IMO its incredibly dumb and almost straight up evil to use "international law for you but not for me" shit when you clearly don't care about "international law" if its about Chinese national interests. How Chinese foreign policy advisors don't understand this is insane.

And again, I'm not saying that is bad, on the contrary, fuck neoliberal international law nonsense, but China can't be hypocrite about it.

I think part of the reason they do this is because it is also their strategy towards Taiwan, to reinforce the previous US agreement on One China etc... therefore they don't want to be seen as disregarding international law but... sigh this is so tiresome. Its like a doormat that needs a heavy beating or something.

The difference is what someone wishes to see happen vs what they say is more likely.

IMO pro-China and pro-Russia "analyst" circles that got famous during the Ukraine war are desperate to portray the image of a "strong and independent" Iran so that both of them, for their own selfish reasons(Russian soft power threat, China's "always winning" nonsense), can avoid having to directly intervene. So these analysts continue to push #1.

People who are closer to the organic Resistence would say #2 but that is closer to wishful thinking than reality perhaps too. The rationalization supporting the "long attrition war" is the way doesn't even begin to calculate what happens if and when the US moves on to the "ok you wont resign so sadly we're about to take out that military base next to hospital or school" part of the war.

Nonsense shit for views, the last paragraph is completely a parody of 9/11, its impossible not to notice it by the person writing this. The "X doesn't cut into Y" format is very much "jet fuel doesn't melt steel beams".

Yeah I looked over his tweets to be sure, nothing but anti-Trump from him, he even writes Free Palestine lol. Not trying to rehabilitate him but I think its just him doing the usual military personal "thoughts and prayers" stuff rather than actualy saying he would support the war imo. Iran shouldn't hit the US is a reasonable take from pragmatists, it would only get US public opinion on Trump's side etc...

This, they look stupid now but seems like a reasonable take, if he ever considered this I bet the TACO stuff hit him too so an award months from now isn't as good as a W today.

Are you sure? he is @RealScottRitter I don`t see anything like that, he seems very hardline on the Trump is an idiot and this is pointless.

This doesn't read like someone who is about to put on the uniform again to die for Trump`s idiocy but who knows.

Congratulations on never getting any future enemies to the negotiating table. They’ve basically shown that negotiating with American diplomats ends in their country getting bombed.

Counterpoint, nobody should negotiate with the US on principle. The last 40 years since the fall of the USSR has been a complete repetition of this lesson that seemingly nobody wants to learn.

Don`t get me wrong, I agree with your point here, but I feel the starting premise is already false. Who exactly was ever arguing for being peaceful and friendly with the US in hopes of some pragmatic deal?

25 something years ago someone would have said Russia...

The fact we're reduced to pinning our hopes on Iran and not the other 2 military superpowers that could significantly tip the scales of this conflict says it all.

We will likely be here 6 months from now having the great "realization" that the US's intent was to bomb and destroy Iranian civil society as a whole and not some underground bunker, and you'll hear this realization from the same experts that are pandering "Israel is running out of missiles" without a hint of irony.

they used the situation to have a political and trade related motivation for stopping eare earth metal exports, knowing that us military assets are dependent on those resources.

This doesn't make much sense though. The rare earth mineral, despite what the grifters want to claim, will only realy make a material difference in this war months if not years from now.

The current US stocks already exist, obviously. The IDF bombs and missiles already exist, the US already made even more contracts to build even more bombs, JDAMs specificaly, that are being used in Iran and Gaza right now. This was April 2025 US approves major weapons shipment to Israel as IDF prepares for Gaza offensive, eyes Iran

My point is if China was using the rare earth ban as a principled tool of aiding the resistance in the ME they would have done this 18 months ago. Yet not only they didn't but they spent all this time welcoming Biden and even wholesale accepting the previous US admin demands.

Indeed if Kamala had won(or Trump not done the tariffs) we would be in the same Iran war right now but without the tariffs ban there would be no RE ban, just like in the 14 months of Biden there was no embargo against Israel, which btw don't forget we saw Syria collapse under Biden and the Israel embassy strike too. We knew Israel was escalating for about 12 months now too sadly.

And of course lets admit that the RE ban was a much stronger measure than necessary, so why not simply stop the civilian trade with Israel, nobody would've blamed them except the western neolibs who would cry "China is HAMAS!1!!1!" for picking a side. At that point, sadly as I repeat often China cares far too much about having their seat at the "civilized" table and not about ideals of international socialist struggle or anything like that.

The thing is and this might be yet again stating the obvious, how is this a China win?

If "Israel running out of [insert key resource/weapon"] is such a great 5d play then why didn't China already embargo Israel over the last 18 months of genocide, couldn't they see that continuing to support Israel would lead to them continuing their aggression? The 5d chess players couldn't even play the 1st move of checkers, perhaps if Israel were under such an embargo there wouldn't even be a war with Iran right now. In fact, hey Xi if you're still listening, the best time to stop trading and sustaining Israel's economy was 18 months ago, the second best time is today, just saying.

But the elephant in the room is that this wasn't a 5d move or a principled act, China only reacted after being pressured by Trump's tariffs. Yet they welcomed Biden's admin in 2024 with open arms even as the Biden team pressured them to change their economy.

The elephant in the room is if Trump wasn't an idiot pivoting from big plot to big plot to get his desperate huge W, if he had simply started the Iran war before pressuring China with the tariffs there would certainly be no rare earth ban right now.

That the CPC was pressured against the wall and forced to use the rare earth ban for leverage now allegedly causes inconvenience to Israel is just a happy coincidence. We need quite a bit more of those for meaningful change and it is pitiful to portray this as some 5d chess.

You are literaly one of the most responsible(and South Africa's coal etc) for Israel to remain stable enough to function as a society right now, zero self-awareness from the grifters right now, can't even read the damn room.

That is the thing, I agree with you, but the US is self sufficient and the EU already gets LNG from the US now so whose outputs are getting reduced by 30%? Maybe the EU is at some risk but not the US and if we say the global south again, I don't think anyone actualy cares about it, we`re in the endgame where as far as everyone is concerned the "world economy" is just an euphemism for US and China.

Again back to the point this could just lead to another commodities boom that benefited the OG BRICS back in 2005-2010. Today's BRICS aren't concerned about oil hurting industry since we have none. Except from China all of BRICS are primarily commodity exporters not industrialized nations.

The biggest losers in all of this would be the global south seeing food prices skyrocket like in 2022.

I do not think institutional investors will let oil e.g Brent go over 100-120 in the worst case. Assume they could be wrong by 2x, hitting 200+ seems like a WW3 scenario and Gulf oil is very short of that yet.

There is absolutely way too money to be made by manipulating the price up and down.

They have spent the last 2 years pushing the China "weak demand" narrative in order to push oil price down. There are billions and who knows how many huge players deeply invested into shorting oil for the long term. Some of them are getting out now but not everyone, in fact nothing ever happens gang exist in the financial market too and the "China weak demand" narrative will stay dominant.