The Fox News-tier story that’s been pushed around for the last few years is that Communist Triads (yes, seriously) are sending fentanyl one step away from being synthesized over seas, and the last step is done in Mexico or Canada. This dodges all customs, and furthers the nefarious plot to undermine our sacred and precious democracy. This explains a little why China, Mexico, and Canada are all part of the fentanyl thing in Trump’s mind. Warning for The New York Post, but it’s a good brainworm sample.
In reality, China has the largest chemical industry in the world, and makes most every precursor chemical used in USamerica. This includes chemicals used by pharmaceutical companies, and maybe savvy consumers, to make fentanyl and carfentanyl. Most precursors are some type of piperidone, and most of those are already List 1 chemicals. If you have the knowledge and equipment, you can synthesize fentanyl without using any of those precursors. You could also make your own piperidone the long way from black pepper. Is this a thing Trump will bring up and threaten about? Yes. There isn’t really a reality to the narrative though, so idk how China can fold towards the fantasy story.
my gut feelings about USamerican domestic politics is that we are about to see a commensurate rise in state’s rights with all the federal bloodshed that’s happening. Some people might not call it that, but a lot of lawyers are going to make money talking about state and federal authority soon. Your South Carolina’s already don’t have expanded Medicaid, and now they have some sort of mandate to terrorize trans and Hispanic people. Your Oregon’s are going to be forced to lean more on regional alliances and might face budgetary issues. They might also terrorize trans and Hispanic people. Firefighting agreements and water compacts already “unite” most of what’s west of the Rockies. i am not familiar enough with things east of that. If domestic politics are scrambled, and Trump/ DOGE manage to gut the CIA and bureaucracy, then foreign policy is a crapshoot. USamericans truly do not think or care about other people in the world.
The Monroe Doctrine revival idea is tempting, because it’s very rational. Yeah, the USA has been forced to recalibrate and retreat following the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the strongman demagogue who’s back in office has always been obsessed with Latin America. To put a very crude finish on the topic, Texas and the South have a moral/ race war angle on Mexico and Central America. They will always be chomping at the bit to shoot up more water stations and put up more barbed wire. California and the West managed a complex rotation of accepting and deporting vulnerable populations for massive economic gain for well over a century. They will always try and send a donation or lobby a bill away from messing with the money. i do not think those competing forces will be resolved until there is revolution on Turtle Island.
The national and international capitalist both have no stake in invading Mexico or anywhere in Latin America. The current system is set up so that the first gets cheap labor in the USA, and the second gets it abroad. Historically, the CIA directly profits from the drug trade across Central America. i refuse to entertain the idea that Trump is somehow a delusional or irrational actor, he’s just petty and unfamiliar with the usual reasons and excuses of statecraft. For better or for worse, lots of people can tell that the current system needs to change. i think Trump ‘24 is Nixon’s second term as farce.
Nixon pivoting on the gold standard makes infinitely more sense in retrospect than it did in the moment. i won’t pretend to know what is cooking within the current USamerican administration, but the long hangover of quantitative easing after ‘08 and China’s assertion of its global position all vaguely echo the rise of Japanese manufacturing and the inflation crisis that Nixon had. When Nixon abandoned the gold standard, the average USamerican thought they were being saved from foreign price gougers.