Image is of Elon Musk giving the Nazi salute a week or so ago.
I didn't really want to keep spotlighting American domestic events as I had assumed that shit would calm down pretty quickly, but it appears that the Trump administration, including Musk, are determined to bring down the empire from the inside.
One of the most important lessons of ruling a country - and especially an empire - is to never, ever believe your own propaganda; and yet now we have neo-Nazi failsons disrupting parts of the imperial apparatus and causing general government mayhem because they actually seem to believe in libertarianism; that the state and the capitalists are somehow in opposition, rather than working in lockstep to maximise profit and boost American hegemony around the world.
I'm not so optimistic as to believe that a national collapse is FOUR DAYS AWAY, like those weird anti-China cranks often speculate - the US has at least a decade or two left even under these conditions. But consider the damage being inflicted in these past couple weeks, and extrapolate that over the next four years. Does any living American political figure possess the competency to halt - or even meaningfully slow - the already ongoing decline? And could they achieve power (or even be allowed to do so) after Trump's term is done?
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Some images of the removal and taping up of USAID signage at Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington D.C. Comrades, I don't think we'll get more poetic imagery than this of the death of contemporary globalised neoliberal capital:
Which brings me to the point of discussion, what comes afterwards? More barbarity? Isolation? Protectionism? The fall of empire? I encourage any analysis or reply, no matter how brief or detailed.
As for me, the enternal pessimist, I think we're entering a new phase of the US empire, not a fall or decline but a shift in tactics, and the current focus appears to be around shipping lanes and freedom of navigation. If we look at the current targets of the US administration's aggressive rhetoric, in Panama, Canada, México, Greenland, Egypt, Iran and China, and even South Africa, a picture emerges: that is drawn on the USA controlling the world's shipping. With Panama we have the Panama canal as an obvious flashpoint, México with the Gulf of México, then with Egypt we have the Suez, Iran is about the Strait of Hormuz and the oil trade with China, with China itself it's about the South China Sea, with Canada and Greenland there's the Arctic shipping lanes such as the North West Passage, and with South Africa there's the Cape of Good Hope and Durban. It really looks as if Trump and his advisors are playing the board game "Risk" here, and looking to exert influence or directly control key points in this regard. If manufacturing can't be brought back to the United States, the consolation prize is to control the flow of goods and the world's oceans.
What Iran and Yemen demonstrated over the past year and a half in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is scary for whoever seeks to control the world's oceans. Which brings me to the topic of Yemen, Trump has been scarily quiet here, with regards to Ansarallah/the Houthis. Aside from designating them as a terrorist organisation, he hasn't said much. When the right hand is moving, you must watch what the left is doing. Trump's first call to a foreign leader after taking power was to Saudi Arabia's MBS. Yes, even before Netanyahu. There was been increased US and French reconnaissance flights around Yemen. And despite all the cuts to USAID and various other three letter organisations, rumours are that the US has increased contact with the opposition/internationally recognised government in Yemen. If I were in the position of Ansarallah, I'd be preparing for for engagements with the United States.
my gut feelings about USamerican domestic politics is that we are about to see a commensurate rise in state’s rights with all the federal bloodshed that’s happening. Some people might not call it that, but a lot of lawyers are going to make money talking about state and federal authority soon. Your South Carolina’s already don’t have expanded Medicaid, and now they have some sort of mandate to terrorize trans and Hispanic people. Your Oregon’s are going to be forced to lean more on regional alliances and might face budgetary issues. They might also terrorize trans and Hispanic people. Firefighting agreements and water compacts already “unite” most of what’s west of the Rockies. i am not familiar enough with things east of that. If domestic politics are scrambled, and Trump/ DOGE manage to gut the CIA and bureaucracy, then foreign policy is a crapshoot. USamericans truly do not think or care about other people in the world.
The Monroe Doctrine revival idea is tempting, because it’s very rational. Yeah, the USA has been forced to recalibrate and retreat following the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the strongman demagogue who’s back in office has always been obsessed with Latin America. To put a very crude finish on the topic, Texas and the South have a moral/ race war angle on Mexico and Central America. They will always be chomping at the bit to shoot up more water stations and put up more barbed wire. California and the West managed a complex rotation of accepting and deporting vulnerable populations for massive economic gain for well over a century. They will always try and send a donation or lobby a bill away from messing with the money. i do not think those competing forces will be resolved until there is revolution on Turtle Island.
The national and international capitalist both have no stake in invading Mexico or anywhere in Latin America. The current system is set up so that the first gets cheap labor in the USA, and the second gets it abroad. Historically, the CIA directly profits from the drug trade across Central America. i refuse to entertain the idea that Trump is somehow a delusional or irrational actor, he’s just petty and unfamiliar with the usual reasons and excuses of statecraft. For better or for worse, lots of people can tell that the current system needs to change. i think Trump ‘24 is Nixon’s second term as farce.
Nixon pivoting on the gold standard makes infinitely more sense in retrospect than it did in the moment. i won’t pretend to know what is cooking within the current USamerican administration, but the long hangover of quantitative easing after ‘08 and China’s assertion of its global position all vaguely echo the rise of Japanese manufacturing and the inflation crisis that Nixon had. When Nixon abandoned the gold standard, the average USamerican thought they were being saved from foreign price gougers.