Salem

Thank you.

Is there any refutation of zei_squirell's post from the other day that I can read up on? This war's forecast seems heavily in the US/Israel's favor.

The real reasons for the US-Israeli war on Iran, explained - Geopolitical Economy Report/Ben Norton

Is that Samson Doctrine publication post from Iran have any weight of truth to it? I know that Israel has it but I just thought it was a boogeyman that Israel let circulate

Yeah that's what I thought it was, but the fog of war makes everything quite uncertain that I would at least like heterodox perspectives to help in forecasting where this is going. r/JewsOfConscience is a hub for anti-Zionist Jews.

a comment of someone on r/JewsOfConscience: https://www.reddit.com/r/JewsOfConscience/comments/1lcm3um/cnn_jun_15_2025_israel_underestimated_irans/

"Listen, I try to be realistic here, there is no evidence of a significant re-grouping, Trita Parsi is known for drinking a lot of Kool-Aid. Israel checkmated Iran, there is no need to live in a fantasy world.

Forget about the nuclear program, it's a sideshow (the US will drop a bunker buster into the Fordow facility sooner or later), the reality is much worse...

They took out all air defence systems to establish air superiority, then they assasinated Iran's military leadership and the whole country is infiltrated by Mossad collaborators actings as Israel's eyes on the ground.

That's what will happen next: Iran will exhaust their remaining ballistic missiles (~1000 left), then they'll switch to their small stockpile of new hypersonic BM with bigger warheads, as well as cruise missiles. (Israel fully calculated this limited and acceptable retaliation into their war plans, including the closing of the Strait of Hormuz or an attack on Saudi oil fields)

Since Israel established full air superiority, they'll be able to shoot down any BM after it's launch inside Iran and immediately destroy the launcher too.

After this phase is over, they'll assasinate the Ayatollah and go into waiting mode. People say he will simply get replaced, maybe even by a military leader, but they don't understand that Israel created a similar situation to Lebanon with Hezbollah. The new leader will immediately be assasinated too and Iran will be either turned into a headless zombie state or they'll be forced to capitulate to Israel's demands."

I'm kind of worried that Israel will use nuclear weapons against Iran when unable to really deal with this onslaught. Despite people feeling a sense of vindication seeing Israel suffer a fraction of the terror they inflicted upon Gaza and the Palestinian people, this is plunging Israel into a sense of desperation and despair, especially since Israel cut off the exits for its population to flee via its airport.

While I do imagine that Israelis with means will be leaving through Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, or Cyprus, the rest of the population won't pressure the government to surrender or stop the war, but to escalate. Israel only knows escalation and there is a risk of nuclear escalation.

After October 7th 2023, half a million Israelis left. Likely dual nationals, those people are not likely coming back. Over the course of that time, Israel has escalated against Gaza and the West bank with impunity, with a periodic moment when Iran would strike military targets within Israel. This iteration of strikes by Iran would likely extend further than the previous iteration to restore a sense of deterrence.

This act against Iran by Israel, in the pursuit of its own goals in Gaza & the West Bank, seems like an action counter to its own goals of fulfilling its genocide. I recall Chris Hedges detailing how the desire and will to annihilate the other is also one of self-annihilation.

This entire conflict and violence seem lend credibility to the notion that Israel was relying on being fettered by the US. Left to its own devices, Israel chooses self-annihilation because it knows no other way nor does its legal system allow for checks, balances, and restraints on its ideology. Perhaps, that is in part why the US and other British colonial projects were successful in its designs for the continent in ways that Israel can not be.

Is there any follow up about the Iranian acquisition of proof about Israel having nuclear weapons or was it just that coordinated anecdote about the IAEA coordinating with Israel?

I'd like to believe scholars like Ilan Pappe or persons who believe that Israel is on its last legs, that it will cannibalize itself on its contradictions, or that fascism is destined to fail. But what is socially, historically, and ideologically obsolete is not politically obsolete.

This can last indefinitely.

From what I understand about Gaza recently, they are closing off the internet to presumably quarantine leaks of the final acts of genocide. Israel is kettling the remaining population to force them into Egypt using food and starvation as lures to complete the genocide.

I'm really stunned how soulless, cruel, and callous people and Western governments are towards the Palestinian people. Genocide should be unanimously condemned and instead it is treated like a wedge issue where it is split the way abortion, taxes, and energy policy.

I understand that this genocidal support isn't a majoritarian project in these countries, and that these political acts of support for a genocidal regime are minoritarian and rogue actions of executives in these governments - why else is the repression so fierce in the US & Europe - but this really just paints a picture of a world conquered by evil.

After Gaza, within a generation of everyone growing dispassionate (10-15 years), Israel will accelerate their project with the West Bank. Their tools of oppression and death will grow more sophisticate, and leading as a model for the future of liberal democracy, our rights in those liberal democracies will extend and cease with ritualistic and periodic voting.

I caught the show once at a friend's house and saw Steven Yuen's character's arc close. It was too much.