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Your opponents are agreement incapable.

This really is, like, one of the most consequential takeaways of the 21st century. That the west does not make reliable agreements nor does it keep it's word. It's extremely obvious that the west's opponents will now all begin to think like this, yet the mere idea of that is completly absent from mainstream media, somehow they still represent tje west's opponents as the inflexible ones.

I think you can probably still make some kind of deal, the ukraine war will probably end in a deal, china will still be seeking deals, but it'd be stupid to immediatly come to the table when the west tells you and not play hard to get, and even stupider to not get strong guarantees as well as some type of sanction for when the west breaks them or disregards them

I genuinly don't understand how any single world leader can still think about negotiating with the west. It's a death sentence and they just walk right into it and doom us all.

every year or two, we get another country or leader that thinks that they'll be the intelligent, crafty ones to finally manage to make a deal that puts them in front and disadvantages the Americans and high-mindedly thinks they're saving their country from war and bloodshed, and inevitably, the US and their allies take advantage of every single tiny little point or loophole in that deal until they break it when the time is right for them to do so.

and all anti-imperialist forces seem to do is bleat about how that's "unfair" and that these diplomatic tricks are somehow a) new and b) portend the downfall of the West because other nations will see how unfair the US is, when in reality breaking deals might actually be the oldest things that the Americans have done, right from the inception of the state as a British colony, and are partially the reason that they ascended to world hegemon in the first place

I really hope that Iran has spent the last year or so preparing as much as possible, because if not, it demonstrates that there's just some fundamental naiveity that prevents the anti-imperialist camp from observing a conflict and going "hm, gee, negotiations and diplomacy didn't work there! guess I can't do that with the US in good faith!" and millions, maybe even tens of millions may die before they, as you say, harden their hearts

Only note is that Khameini and many of the political/military class of Iran have faced a genocidal war, or at least an existential war. That being, the war against Iraq who indiscriminately used gas attacks and terror bombing during 8 years of bitter fighting, including the largest Iranian air disaster in history when the USS Vincennes shot down Iran Airlines flight 655.

The west must taste defeat, and not a defeat where it simply chooses to weasel away troops over a few years whilst their proxy security force gets overwhelmed; they need to be evicted with great force. It may end up in endless escalation and victory for imperialism, but allowing the imperialists to pick and choose when they win or lose based on what suits their goals given them a god complex, and only buys them time as they whittle down smaller alliances and challengers to the unipolar world order.

Jakarta method never ended.

yup, Israel really banked on the war being over as quickly as it started, or at least dragging the US into it immediately by gloating about "coordination". I dont think they ever expected to crack any of the strategic nuclear sites in Iran, but do just enough damage and strike just enough panic into the Iranian political class to get them to back down.

Pezeshkian is known to have been an opponent to True Promise II and part of why True Promise III never materialised before now. There are other moderates who equally didnt want to escalate the confrontation, hence the negotiations with Trump. However, it appears these moderates have backed down.

Awfully convient timing. Anyone who asks can say these assets are just for the legitimate combat exercises in Finland, and not to place stratotankers at a staging base before their final trip to bases in West Asia.

Look into what Palestine Action do in the UK and how they gather intelligence. You can scout facilities out, keep an eye on what goes in and out, and figure out which companies are working with which. Enough people doing this for long enough and working together could gather a lot of information on the arms production network within the US. The arms manufacturers themselves are usually hard targets and have insurance, but their insurers, suppliers, cleaners, etc etc are not, and it's often easier for them to cancel a contract rather than facing being targeted by an anti-arms trade campaign. Do this consistently for long enough, and it starts to become materially harder for arms firms to conduct their business - fewer companies will work with them, security costs go up, etc.

Found one anyway.

Missile Factory in Arkansas Raytheon partnered with Israeli defense contractor Rafael in February to construct a Tamir missile facility in Arkansas to support US and Israeli warhead requirements.

The Tamir is among the primary missiles used by Tel Aviv’s Iron Dome.

The center, which will be built in East Camden, will also manufacture the Tamir’s American variant SkyHunter for the US and its allies.

Plans for the Arkansas factory were first announced in October 2023.
https://thedefensepost.com/2024/04/25/raytheon-expands-missile-factor-alabama/

L3Harris (formerly Raytheon Technologies) assembles SM-6 missiles in Camden. The Aerojet Rocketdyne facility in Camden manufactures their propulsion systems.
https://www.magnoliareporter.com/news_and_business/ouachita_county/article_ae76c556-2c95-4b56-96aa-e0fac2201efc.html

So there are either multiple factories here, or they're expanding one big one they have to make multiple missile types. Looking it up on Apple Maps it seems pretty small and desolate minus a bunch of factory/warehouse-like buildings from satellite images I'm seeing.

Edit: oh yeah, the other post with the maps is better and has the factories in East Camden listed out, seemingly. There are multiple factories here. I guess it makes sense since this place only seems to have a university, weapons manufacturing, and seemingly little else. Not sure how many weapons manufacturing company towns there are in rural US, but yeah.

SM-3 interceptors, the kind used by Israel, can only be produced in very small quantities. The US produced 71 in 2023.

It's not the same missile, Israel use their own version called Arrow 3. But it gives an idea.

No surprises there. Likely trying to trip up cruise missiles and drones trying to hit Iranian infrastructure.

The invincibility the settlers felt is actively disappearing and it's so good to see. Time to experience a fraction of the terror Palestinians have felt every day.

Ambulance? Shelter? Both are a military target according to

Going straight for that star destroyer

• I assume they'll start off with just Intelligence support, the flying fuel tankers, things like that

They are doing all of those thing + running sorties to intercept Iranian drones. They also operate early warning radar stations throughout the region that are tracking Iranian ballistic missiles. the us is doing everything besides launching ground attack missions.

I assume they'll start off with just Intelligence support

US has absolutely already been providing that, wouldnt be surprised if they've provided a fuel tanker already too

Big "oh fuck our plans didn't result in the immediate collapse of a state of 90 million people we're fucked whoops" vibes.

Israeli's really seem to be high on their own supply. Is there no material analysis to understand that bombing defenseless women and children isn't the same as fucking IRAN?

/c/slop tier analysis. This is just orientalism.

"The Persian Mohammedans, on the death of their beloved mullah, quickly fall into disarray. Truly, the orientals lack the je ne sais quoi that allows the maintenance of a modern nation-state." This is the tldr of their trash tweet.

I want to just put out there that I can see Iran being successfully destroyed. Done Syria/Libya style.

The west has moved a lot of things into position for this.

And frankly, let's recall Iran isn't run by pragmatic, thoughtful people who grew up in the USSR education system like Russia, it isn't run by Marxists like China or the DPRK. Iran is run by theocratic, reactionary, religious fundamentalists. Many of their religious policies like the mandatory hair-covering are unpopular with much of the younger society. That is an inherent, deep, deep, deep disadvantage in short and long-term planning, it is a problem because it makes them unpopular with their people because of their hard line on certain things. And given many young people in Iran have grown up never knowing the Shah it'll be very easy for them to slip into thinking they can make peace with the west, or that they should join the west or at least not defend the current rulers of their country. Add on the fall of Syria, the amount of jihadists they can deploy as in ISIS puppet groups, kurds, etc into Iran as their proxies to carry out assassinations, to carry out attacks, to demoralize the society and gather intelligence, it's a really sticky situation.

Fact is the zionists have been murdering a lot of top people in Iran very successfully. Their intelligence and likely penetration of the Iranian military is extreme and an extreme problem. They seem to know where to hit down to the day or time of day to kill these people and the Iranian air defenses are not stopping them. They don't have control of their airspace, they don't have air dominance like Russia does.

Given that and nothing else besides the recent string of victories of the zionists and the US need to cement complete control of the middle east/west Asia for their coming confrontation and cold war against China I think it's very plausible. It's depressing to think about but I think they're not as strong as they present themselves as. That doesn't mean they're as weak as the zionists or US present them as but people trot out the Millennium challenge thing and that was back in 2000, Iran has suffered a lot under sanctions since then and the doctrines of warfare have changed a lot, drone warfare for example including on the seas has matured and evolved and it's possible NATO capabilities in that area plus area denial weapons would be enough to destroy Iran in a naval fight and negate the advantage of all their small swarms of missile boats. You have to remember that challenge was in an era where it assumed old school 90s carrier battlegroups with a carrier or two, destroyers, various support ships, and a few helicopters and planes. Not with that plus tons of drones operated by people in pajamas in Germany and Tel Aviv all coordinated together.

The whole "the zionist entity is on the verge of collapse" thing so repeated here honestly comes across as copium/hopium blend based off propaganda and what we would rather be true. Objectively they've scored so many geopolitical and strategic wins from Syria falling to western puppets to Nasrallah's assassination, Hezbollah's stand-down (because Syrian supply lines were cut), the pager attacks, the Gaza genocide carried out so far and opposition to that viciously crushed all across the west, etc.

Ultimately most people here are hope-casting, or doom-casting. There is the fog of war that will not lift until the smoke has cleared and by that time the situation will likely have been decided in one direction or the other. The Iranians are likely to lie about successes and downplay failures. The zionists are likely to hide the Iranian successes and downplay their own failures. I don't pay any attention at all to western imperialist propaganda "reporting" on this and haven't since the genocide flared up really as I can't stand them so I'm not really influenced by zionist claims just by the alleged facts on the ground, the history of who momentum is with (the zionists sadly), and other factors like that.

Optimism of the will, pessimism of the intellect. The west still has a lot of strength and I fear I see a grander plan unfolding successfully. China's long-game approach to non-interventionism for example means tons of western interventions and securing the rest of the world against them by coups, wars, color revolutions, "moderate rebels", etc early on in the game right now might blunt their ability for success by the time they are ready to do that and strong enough to do that. I don't know the right moves, I just know we shouldn't underestimate them and their power at this point.

I of course hope Iran brings the entity to its knees but hope does not reality make as I hoped Assad would prevail against the west and that Nasrallah would teach the zionists a bitter lesson and we can see how those things went.