Maybe, but you'd have to convince the reformists to actually care about state security, maybe getting bombed was enough of a wake up call but I'm not holding out hope.
Gucci_Minh
would they start international assassination program same as entity
They can't even if they wanted to, Iranian counterintelligence is either incompetent or just can't keep up with the extent of mossad infiltration in Iranian society. they knew the exact apartments that Iran's nuclear scientists and generals sleep in, Iran couldn't even keep Ismail Haniyeh alive as a visitor. Any attempt by Iran to do the same would be foiled immediately by tipoffs from various comprador assets.
Any peace deal with israel is going to be the same as the minsk agreements, a delaying tactic for the empire to rearm. If Iran takes the initiative to develop nuclear weapons and stockpile even more ballistic missiles in that time, then there's still a chance of deterrence. If they behave like Russia prior to the Ukraine war and keep trusting the west for diplomacy, then at that point I don't know what to say.
However, how long can those last after an actual war is started?
The rot goes deep enough that it will be a significant undertaking that should have been done 20 years ago. Better late than never I suppose but how do you do counterintelligence when your counterintelligence people are deeply infiltrated too? Doesn't help that there are plenty of willing traitors and Shah supporting diaspora in the recruiting pool.
I would say the destruction of multiple Tu-95s is a bit more than minor. It won't change the final result of the war, but it is a fairly significant setback since these are the main plane that carries Russia's standoff munitions, and since Russia's MIC is like the adeptus mechanicus they only really have the ability to maintain them. Production of new airframes would be a big undertaking over many years.
That said, there are probably a fair number of Tu-95s still operational (Ukrainian media usually just makes up a ridiculously inflated damage numbers as we know) and they can always increase usage of the Tu-22m and Tu-160 if required.
Given the shape and the description in the wiki link in the other comment, there are variants of it such as explosively formed penetrator, shaped charge, or fragmentation warheads. This one looked kind of like the EFP version given the cone shape, which isn't optimal for anti-personnel use but in a confined space like an APC would have killed everyone inside just by the blast alone.