I think he's gonna do it. Momentum is a real thing in electoralism and the polling is so close.
Be prepared for the most insufferable media coverage imaginable. If Cuomo wins, there will be an establishment victory lap talking about how the steady center is the way forward followed by zero critical coverage of how he actually governs. If Zohran wins... well, you can imagine. We joke about how leftists always infight, but it's going to be nothing compared to how liberal media will punch left against him.
The Onion, like The Simpsons, is going to be an important future reference for anthropologist and historians trying to make sense of this era.