xiaohongshu

Increasing instability means high risks of war. What do you think countries do when they run out of fuel or food because of disruption of the global trade, or deterioration of material conditions due to regional destabilization caused by American foreign policy?

But the US has the entire world under its thumb via the USD.

Again, think in terms of contradictions. The hegemony of USD also caused massive trade deficits, large scale deindustrialization and growing dissent among its working class as jobs were exported to the Global South. The global financial crisis of 2008 further devastated the real economy and exacerbated the deterioration of material wealth of the lower/middle class, and directly precipitated the rise of populism in the form of Sanders and Trump in the 2016 election. None of this was a coincidence.

What the American capital has been doing since the first Trump term, including his first trade war with China in 2018, was an attempt to resolve these very contradictions that are inherent within the American capitalist system. Funnily enough, it is actually much easier to understand the geopolitical play when viewed through such Marxist lens, in terms of contradictions, than to see the present geopolitical conflicts as some kind of competition between US-China, NATO-Russia, US-Israel-Iran etc.

That doesn’t mean the US will always get its way. The politics and economy of the world is simply too complex to be accurately calculated and predicted. Just like how the US and Japan both miscalculated the Plaza Accord, and both countries ended up not getting what they had hoped to achieve, though the outcome still favored the US in the end. The same will happen with US and other countries like China, Russia moving forward - nobody could predict how the current policies will actually play out in the future. But it certainly won’t stop the US from attempting to play a maximalist strategy with all the advantages it still has, and for other countries to respond in kind.

Yes, if the tariffs are causing inflation to go up, then the Fed will not cut rate or even raise it again.

This is why it is in China’s interest to see the inflation goes down in the US, if they want the Fed to cut rate. And that involves working out a compromise with the Trump team to make sure that the treats don’t get too expensive for the American consumers.

Fed holds key rate steady, still sees two more cuts this year CNBC

The Federal Reserve kept its key borrowing rate targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December.

However, the central bank expects inflation to remain elevated and sees lower economic growth ahead.

Still, the Federal Open Market Committee expects to make two rate reductions later this year, according to the closely watched “dot plot.”

The Fed still refused to cut rate, once again citing “inflation risks” even though inflation has dropped to 2.7%. This is bad news for China’s local governments who need the Fed rate cut to alleviate their debt burden.

I had previously expected the recent US-China negotiation to have at least involved a small rate cut as a sign of good will, but it looks like the US-China talk is far from over.

Harris would have pulled the trigger with 0 hesitation.

That’s literally what I said - consistency. I already mentioned that even Putin said that he preferred Biden to Trump because at least Biden’s foreign policy was consistent. And this makes it possible to formulate a plan to deter or to dissuade the other side from going through.

The problem with Trump is that his decision swings from one end of the spectrum to another, based on something that is likely not tangible. This unpredictability amplifies the risks of global instability, because you can no longer predict what he wants.

You could say the wrong thing just because it’s in the morning and not the afternoon, and that’s it for someone who has the authority to launch nukes. When countries cannot predict what the US wants, bad decisions can easily lead to other bad decisions and eventually reaching the point of no return for the all of us.

ICE is literally kidnapping people off the streets and throw them into “detention centers”. I’m not saying this doesn’t happen under the Democrats but let’s not pretend like they are happening on the same scale, or that the fascist thugs aren’t being emboldened by Trump.

It may be easy for an American-born citizen to say “it’s all the same” but for many immigrants in America, this is already causing a lot of undue stress and panic on top of feeling that the society has turned hostile against them.

We are also seeing increasing assault - quite openly - against LGBT and minority rights and while I cannot speak for them, I can imagine that many would prefer not to live in fear like that under Trump.

You are right though that both parties are two sides of the same coin in foreign policy, but as I mentioned in my initial comment, the unpredictability of Trump is what makes him so dangerous for the world. Biden/Harris at least have a level of consistency. When other countries cannot predict what America wants, it risks destabilizing the entire world and things can spiral out of control easily.

That’s a very uncharitable read of my argument.

I said that if the US left is not prepared for the struggle, including through an armed struggle, then it’s objectively better to have a Biden/Harris administration to buy a few more years of time while building up a resilient movement in the meantime.

People here somehow wanted an accelerationist scenario with Trump but what has transpired instead is that Trump is letting his fascist thugs to deport immigrants, assault on progressive and civil rights left and right, provoking even more deranged foreign policy on Gaza and Iran, and guess what? There has been no meaningful opposition just as I predicted while fascists are roaming the streets doing what they want. The American left literally does not have a strategy to counter Trump fascism.

The keyword here is pragmatism. This was what the Chinese communists understood, but the American left doesn’t. They had to work with the nationalists to kick out the Japanese invaders, even after just experienced a huge massacre by the KMT. Can you imagine if the communists were too idealistic and vindictive to work with the KMT? Japan would have carved up China and communism would not have prevailed in the end.

Having some perspective matters. Take this from a country where communism actually won.

Look there is no point getting angry about this at this moment. We literally have Trump on the brink of pulling the trigger. The nightmare scenario that has haunted me since before the election is already happening.

Which part of the “do nothing, win” meme do you not understand?

China is literally going to do nothing, and win.

Remember, China is playing the long game that is likely beyond your comprehension.

Everyone here has been saying it for the past few years.

This is what makes Trump so dangerous.

With Biden, there was a consistency in the foreign policy. Even Putin admitted that during the interview with Tucker Carlson.

With Trump, we can go from “I’m gonna stop the war within 24 hours” to “let’s nuke Tehran” in a single day. And this unpredictability further exacerbates instability in the world.

Not trying to pull a “told you so”, this is not the time and place, but I did warn of exactly this happening during the election (that Trump is going to end up 10 times worse than Biden/Harris) when the entire site gave me shit and accused me of “voting for Harris means supporting fascist genocide” as if strategic voting isn’t a thing.

How are you going to get visual confirmation of a plane that is literally invisible?

My reading is that the neocons already gained a firm control over the Trump administration. Elon Musk and the other MAGA clowns were allowed to have their fun for a bit, until they fumbled, and now the “adults in the room” are back in charge.

Technology acquisition (stealing technology like they accuse China of doing lol), reshaping of the global supply chain by killing off businesses and buying them out, pressure foreign countries into providing a favorable deal to the US, etc.

The US does not have the capacity to re-industrialize! It simply cannot compete with China or even with Europe. This is their only play, and if they do it right, they can maybe even force the Europeans to purchase American goods to offset some of the trade deficit and Trump gets to announce a win for his MAGA base.