HarryLime

Interesting analysis:

THREAD: It seems a ceasefire has been achieved in what US President Trump is now calling the “Twelve-Day War” between Israel and Iran. What motivated the parties involved to accept it?

Seeing reports that Iran launched the missiles before the ceasefire came into effect and they landed after. Buzzer beater missile attack.

If Israel responds, they break the ceasefire, and if they don't, they look weak. Very cheeky move by Iran, and it seems to indicate they feel they've won.

BREAKING | Iranian missile impact on an Israeli site in the southern Negev (Naqab).

🇮🇷 BREAKING: Confirmed launches from Iran towards Northern Israel and the Negev

sort of? tactical draw, strategic defeat, same as hezbollah.

It's a strategic victory for Iran because Israel failed at all its strategic goals. They couldn't destroy the nuclear program or overthrow the government.

From the outset, Israel’s aims were unmistakable:

1. torpedo U.S.-Iran diplomacy;
2. drag Washington into conflict;
3. take out Iran’s nuclear and missile programs;
4. trigger regime change.

If the ceasefire Trump just announced holds—and is paired with serious U.S.-Iran diplomacy—it would mark a strategic defeat for Israel in launching this war.

Netanyahu took his shot. A desperate Hail Mary. And none of it has worked up until now.

Fordow was evacuated. The site may very well be intact.

And in any case, Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and advanced centrifuges are now hidden, with a stronger covert breakout ability than ever.

The Iranian public has rallied in defense of the country and against foreign aggression.

If the government channels this unity into a new social contract, it could be transformative. If not, the old polarization may return.

Meanwhile, Iran has hit Israel hard over these 12 days: Tel Aviv, Haifa, the north, south, and other cities have seen major destruction. Military and intelligence sites damaged. Energy and research infrastructure hit.

Israel’s vaunted air defenses failed the test. Its reliance on the U.S. has never been clearer.

Netanyahu saw the costs of a war of attrition and blinked.

But for Iran, can any ceasefire be trusted?

Unless it’s tied to credible U.S. diplomacy—not maximalist demands—and unless Israel halts covert attacks and assassinations and continued airstrikes (a la Lebanon and Syria), this truce will likely collapse.

Trump helped create this mess by enabling Netanyahu.

If he truly wants to stop the region from being “destroyed,” as he just said, he’ll have to restrain Netanyahu and force a ceasefire in Gaza too.

Lasting peace is impossible until Netanyahu and his war-first approach is gone for good.

Israel launched this campaign against Iran with the goal of regime change and destroying Iran's nuclear program, and it has failed at both objectives. The ceasefire gives Iran time to sort out its internal security issues and intelligence failures and time to build up its air defense network. IMO Iran won here.

Heaviest night of Israeli bombing across Tehran since the war began - State TV

I had written a comment that I felt that the ceasefire was actually a W for Iran, as it would mean Israel had failed at its main objectives in its campaign. But it looks like the ceasefire was just fake. Maybe one had been negotiated and the Israelis are torpedoing it.

I know it's satire, but that game honestly looks like it would be fun.

Iran’s Mehr News, a state-affiliated outlet, has dismissed Trump’s ceasefire announcement as fiction—calling it the delusion of a “madman” made while Israel was actively bombing Iranian territory.