CleverOleg

Is this because of Iran’s weird 0:30 time zone thing maybe?

Israel fucking loves to go into a genocidal rage right before a ceasefire, like they are mad they have to stop the killing so they try to get as much done as possible until the last second.

They didnt have 5% of their population being SK agents with atgm hidden in their asses to sabotage them

Something I really got from Losurdo’s Stalin book was just how much danger from internal sabotage the ongoing revolution of the USSR was in before the Great Terror. Stalin may have been a bit too paranoid but not really by much. And what we can see in Lebanon and Syria and what Israel tried to do in Iran, your enemies WILL activate these subversive elements eventually and if they have enough juice they WILL destroy your country.

Would anyone blame the IRGC if they do a Stalin-style purge of their country? Can we really not see how your enemies will cry about human rights and free speech, because you refuse to allow the people who would destroy your country to live?

I think I understand Stalin a little bit better today than I did 2 weeks ago.

That sounds like literally the definition of a ceasefire.

I mean, the strategy with the US/Israel has been to unilaterally claim a “ceasefire” to try and force the other side (Hamas) to either accept a rotten deal or to continue with war and then try and paint them (Hamas) as the aggressors who turned down a “great deal”

I was one of those hoping to see Gaza be included in the ceasefire, but I am also seeing thanks to insight from comrades here that Iran probably wasn’t in a position to negotiate. I mean, I think Iran still had options open like closing the Strait but idk

Yeah I don’t feel as pessimistic as others in the thread at the moment. I’m not saying it’s great or anything but I think this largely just returns us to status quo to what things at 13 days ago.

It’s unbalanced, but isn’t the whole dynamic between the US and Iran unbalanced? The very top of Iran’s escalation ladder is destroying the Gulf’s capacity to produce oil and closing the Strait. The US top rung is… a nuclear holocaust of Iran that kills tens of millions of people? I feel like the inherent imbalance in the dynamic means the response is going to be unbalanced.

Edit: I am admittedly bullish on the idea that Iran will package a peace deal with one for Gaza, so if this leads to that then all’s well that ends well, I guess.

If it were not for Marxist analysis I myself would have a hard time seeing Israel as anything but basically bulletproof. And even with it, I see Israeli collapse kind of like de-dollarization: something that almost certainly must happen but the status quo makes it likely a ways off. Of course these events can be accelerated or decelerated (I think Israeli collapse is the former while de-dollarization is the later, with China showing every interest in maintaining USD hegemony), but still, the steps it takes to get to Israel collapse are just not how these people think, even the smart ones IMO.

I think something we should enter into our calculations here… I highly doubt that anyone in the top echelons of power in the west thinks there is even a 0.01% chance of Israel collapsing. To nearly everyone else besides us, Israel looks like it’s stronger than ever. It’s western and virtually an extension of the US itself. They don’t see a fascist state flailing from one failed conflict to another. I fully believe they believe they can leave Israel out to dry and that Israel will probably be fine.

Speaking for myself but I’m sure others feel the same way, I’d love to hear details (non-doxxy of course) of how this campaign has worked out on the ground. Even if Mamdani loses, it really seems like it’s been an incredibly successful campaign and I think there’s probably lessons for us all to draw from.

I kind of just assumed there’s at least two crews onboard and they switch out every so often, because flying for 40 hours straight seems insane.