this post was submitted on 15 Oct 2023
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Poland election: first exit poll puts Law and Justice in lead but opposition coalition possible – follow live (www.theguardian.com)
submitted 2 years ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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[–] [email protected] 62 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (7 children)

good news:

  1. Looks like opposition gets safe majority, but not supermajority (neither 3/5 required for rejecting presidential veto and some other things or 2/3 required for changing constitution, finalizing some international agreements and some other things). Seems like PiS won't be able to get majority in any way imaginable
  2. The pro-russian bitches party, konfederacja, polled around 9% but in exit polls they scored nice 6.2%. It would be even better (and funnier) if they got less than 5%, which is electoral threshold, but i don't hold my breath for this one, they are already sorely disappointed after they got high on their own supply of propaganda where they found one poll with 13.4% support for them. They're kinda like AfD, in terms of better known euro parties
  3. Electoral participation seems to be record high at almost 73%. This seems to contribute to lower PiS score
  4. Parallel to elections there was kinda "referendum" with weaselly worded broad and imprecise questions meant to stir shit re: immigrants. However participation in this one is less than 40% and so it's not binding

bad news:

none. i'm drinking tonight

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 years ago (2 children)

Konfederacja is not like afd. PiS is like AfD. Konfederacja is like a child of FDP with NPD

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 years ago

Nah i wouldn't say so. Konfa is more like AfD, PiS is more like CSU that got high on power and let intrusive thoughts win

PiS - Fidesz is also reasonable comparison

[–] [email protected] 8 points 2 years ago

Have fun, and thanks for the summary :)

[–] [email protected] 7 points 2 years ago (2 children)

i voted today, ask me anything

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 years ago (1 children)

What did you vote and why?

[–] [email protected] 14 points 2 years ago (1 children)

i've voted for our tiny (8.6% in exit polls) social democrat party Razem every time since they were founded

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 years ago

Hello my fellow Razemek ;)

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 years ago (3 children)

What are you drinking? I really hope for you people in Poland and for all of us Europeans that the exit polls results will be confirmed by actual results.

Where are you following the results? And at what time should we expect final(ish) results?

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 years ago (1 children)

expect late polls monday evening and final, official results somewhere around tuesday or maybe even wednesday

official results will be here: lower house: https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/pl/sejm/wynik/pl upper house: https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/pl/senat/wynik/pl

as for now everyone seems to be taking exit polls from ipsos, this is fine might be paywalled https://www.rp.pl/wybory/art39269471-wybory-2023-badanie-exit-poll-pis-wygrywa-wybory-opozycja-ma-wiekszosc-w-sejmie this is fine, even that it's owned by ringer axel springer now https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/wybory-2023-opozycja-ma-szanse-przejac-wladze-znamy-mozliwy-podzial-mandatow/m1j15wm,79cfc278 guardian is fine, bbc is fine, everyone is reporting the same thing anyway from same sources

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Thanks! As for the the drink?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 years ago

i had some mean mojitos

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

ipsos late poll is out:

PiS 36,6% (198) KO 31,0% (161) TD 13,5% (57) Lewica 8,6% (30) Konfederacja 6,4% (14)

most likely coalition is KO + TD + Lewica with 248 seats, 231 needed for majority, 277 needed to reject presidential veto, 308 to change constitution

official results are expected tuesday evening or so

https://nitter.net/MarcinPalade <- this dude is a statistician, he posts results every time elections happen, rumors, exit polls, late polls, whatever you want, he has it

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 years ago

Thanks man, have a great day!

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 years ago

looking at partial election results something extremely funny is about to happen. check again tomorrow

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

schadenfreude delivery:

These are PiS high command's cheerful faces at yesterday's post-election conference. Technically they won elections as they got largest share of votes, but they won't be able to form majority government

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 years ago

Drink one for me :)

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 years ago (1 children)

So, Elightened Centrism coalition coming?

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 years ago (1 children)

looks like KO + TD + Lewica, so socdems, centrist liberals, centrist-ish christian democrats and agrarians, overall proeuropean

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 years ago (2 children)

So, for an outsider, is this similar as current, more or less righ wing? Will Poland go back on some problems regarding lgbt..+ community or will persecution continue?

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

PiS are right-wing populists. The proposed coalition would be liberal/center left. So way less radical right-wing stuff and more support for LGBT rights.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 years ago

thanks. That does sound good.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 years ago

right wing populist are out of govt, better rule of law, judiciary, cooperation with EU, maybe even lgbt rights or abortion rights are in <- don't hold your breath for the last one because that one new christian democrat party is part of that coalition and it's unknown how will they behave

[–] [email protected] 38 points 2 years ago (3 children)

How could Germany do this?

[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 years ago

πŸ˜‚πŸ‘

[–] [email protected] 7 points 2 years ago

As a German I feel it's about time that "blame Germany" isn't enough anymore to win an election in Poland.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

ironically german minority didn't seem to get MP this time, and they used to have two and later one every electoral cycle

edit: based on exit polls, there's still possibility that they do get it

[–] [email protected] 17 points 2 years ago

Good to see their facism to die down the slightest of bits. Hopefully it keeps that way, but considering that Tusk sees no problems with Hungary, I doubt it. Just less rabid facism. But we'll see if he keeps going after women's rights, minorities' rights, Rule of Law and whatnot.

[–] [email protected] 17 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Just get rid of PiS please!

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 years ago (1 children)

this seems to be done deal

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Lot of people don't seem to understand how multiparty parliamentary coalition democracies work.

PiS was still biggest "oh dear". Doesn't matter, what matters is who can pass the confidence vote in Parliament and based on current estimates, PiS can't.

Oh since you seem to be Polish, who is likely to be put up as PM candidate by the new coalition to the Parliament to vote. I would assume Donald Tusk? Then again I know pretty much nothing of Polish politics.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

coalition PM will be most likely Donald Tusk, but before this happens, it's likely that president Duda will customarily ask PiS, as biggest party, to propose their own PM, who would be Morawiecki, which proposal will be rejected. they can delay new government appointment this way by up to a month

this time there's coalition but each of these parties is actually also a coalition in a trenchcoat, because this way they avoid 8% threshold and instead have 5% one, so instead of 3 parties in coalition there's like 8 to 10 depending on how you count

[–] [email protected] 15 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Not great, not terrible.
I think PiS still got way too many votes though.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 years ago

Like in other places. It’s all about disinformation and control of the media. Polish national TV has not mentioned any opposition leader by name in years - and you can imagine how they report on what is happening in the country and the World. It sways people. As we very well know from everywhere.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 2 years ago (2 children)

Also, the weirdo Putinists appear to be underperforming, at least in the exit polls. Hopefully this isn’t just the shy-Tory effect of extremist voters lying about whom they voted for.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

two election cycles ago they overperformed in exit polls compared to actual results and got under electoral threshold (4.76%, 5% threshold, polls at like 5.5%). their cope was major laughingstock for a few months

they are known for oversized online presence and habit of picking up highest results from shittiest polling company they can find and blasting it all over as internal propaganda. well they got high on their own supply and today many of party members, some of them who expected getting MP seat but not anymore, got big sad and didn't participated in party meeting scheduled after conclusion of voting

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 years ago

if you're looking for shy Tory effect, that works for PiS historically

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 years ago

Hope exit polls will reflect the truth and you guys don't pull a Slovakia in these elections. My anxiety was never higher than the last week and would love to see good guys win for once.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Come onnnnnn no shield for Hungary!

[–] [email protected] 8 points 2 years ago (2 children)

They have Slovakia as their new shield unfortunately

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 years ago

I'd say that's not so likely given Slovakia's actively claimed as "Rightful Magyar Clay" by Fidesz' ultranationalists

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 years ago

Wouldn't be surprised if Italy also steps in to stop sanctions against antidemocratic nationalists and populists in the future