Yeah, I’ve been following the war, not everyday, but pretty consistently and this definitely seems like the biggest day I’ve seen both in casualties and in material. LFG Ukraine and hopefully this emboldens other nations to donate more!

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Same here. Not sure I've seen +1280 ever before.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 years ago

It was 600 and change daily just a while ago. They've literally doubled the pace.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (2 children)

Do you have any information why and why now?

If I remember correctly, last year in autumn, Ukraine was pushing before winter and before some rain and mud would make everything more difficult or even impossible from the logistics side. Made a lot of sense to me.

But I have seen videos from a few weeks ago and due to heavy rains, there was mud everywhere. Looking at the temperatures in eastern Ukraine, it's not frozen yet.

Why is Russia pushing now? And they get >1000 for two(?) weeks already. Is there any event that could explain this? Elections in Russia? Some 2023 deadline where they want to show a victory on TV?

[–] [email protected] 16 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

Rumor has it that Russia is pushing hard because Putin has to announce his candidacy for the March 2024 presidential election soon, and he wants a victory he can include when he announces that.
This may also explain why Russia keeps pushing, apparently disregarding very bad weather for it, they have tried to attack through mud, which you won't believe how bad it is, unless you've seen it, and they also tried to attack through the recent blizzards!
This is the reason Russian losses are way higher even than when they took Bakhmut.
But there is no way from what I've heard, that Russia can take Avdiivka quickly, it's way better defended than Bakhmut, so Russian losses will probably remain high as long as they keep trying. This city has actually been a target for Russia since 2014 AFAIK, and it's heavily fortified and defended.
My guess is that when Russia fails to take it before the Speech, Putin will move the goal post, and want to take it before the election. So this could continue through the winter, at extreme cost to Russia, because Putin is actually not a clever strategist, he is just ruthless, stubborn and scared, with a major inferiority complex.

[+] [email protected] 10 points 2 years ago (1 children)

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 years ago (1 children)

If they are to take it, they need to take it before winter.

Yes, strategically you are right. But obviously that's to late now.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

Perhaps, but the weather change is recent, and perhaps the reports haven't convinced enough of the leadership that the weather is bad enough that stacking bodies won't overcome it.

But then again, a lot of the Russian big pushes have been of questionable war importance. There seems to be at least two more games being played in parallel (army & other internal politicking, but also non-military interest groups), probably even more.

Regardless of why, it seems clear Russia is playing for something different than Ukrainian annexation and genocide, but I've heard little credible analysis as to what it could be.

The most credible guess seems to be dreams of reinstating USSR/Russian Empire as a legacy after Putin, but this has so many holes and contradictions to previous actions that Putin's deathbed is one of the only plausible explanations. And the costs by now surely must have exceeded any indulgence of a dying leader?

Anyone wanting to succeed him must weigh the already decade long repercussions against his lifespan. And we're not very far off having enough deaths and ruined relations that it will define another Russian generation regardless of if they win the war or not.