this post was submitted on 06 May 2025
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doomer
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American analysts, including Biden earlier in his career, have long foretold that the threat of Ukraine joining NATO would provoke an invasion by Russia.
Why did Biden later claim the invasion was expansionist? The same reason Bush claimed Iraq had WMDs. The same reason Obama claimed the Libyan state was about to commit a genocide, or that the Syrian state had used chemical weapons when evidence instead pointed to the Al Nusra front.
In reality, Russia invaded Ukraine because Russia is scared of NATO, because NATO is an arm of American power, and Ukraine joining NATO would put American power on the border close to Moscow. This response was so predictable that analysts have been forecasting it literally for decades.
America prolongs the war to weaken Russia, and indirectly China, because this strengthens America's hold over the global south.
I regret spending 30 seconds skimming that article.
Key quote that I was looking for, which invalidates the whole thing:
LOLOL, be serious!
How many countries has Russia invaded since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991? How many countries have NATO members invaded since that same time? What was the reasoning behind those invasions?
Perhaps you have a different answer, but here's mine: Russia has invaded Ukraine (for 10 years, ongoing) and Georgia (for about a week?) since that time, both for legitimate defensive/strategic reasons as I have explained elsewhere in this thread. NATO members (USA) have invaded Iraq and Afghanistan since that time, Iraq for absolutely no good reason for over 8 years, and Afghanistan as an overreaction to 9/11 for nearly 20 years, where a limited intervention to capture Osama Bin Laden would have sufficed. Maybe I have missed some items, but from my perspective, NATO looks like a bigger threat than Russia.
No, it's directly and logically countering your argument.
Your exact quote I was responding to:
Please provide evidence to demonstrate how Russia is more dangerous to NATO than NATO is to Russia.
Regarding your other questions, I already explained my rationale in another part of this post. I would have much preferred that Russia would have found some other solution to address the existential threat that NATO poses to them, but I can understand their reasoning for doing it this way. They made the calculation that offense would be the best defense, which is valid at any level of self-defense.
I'm not making a moral argument. I'm making a realistic geopolitics argument. If you want a hypothetical involving the US, I have a perfect one that parallels what has happened: what exactly do you think the US would do if Mexico were already in a full military alliance with Russia and China expressly created to be anti-US, and Canada announced that it was planning to join that same alliance? Please answer this question.
Edit: to make the opening less confrontational.
Again, can you demonstrate that Russia has used more coercive tactics, chaos, disruptions, and corruption for geo-strategic advantage than the West has used since 1991? If you want to go back further than that, let's include the much more sordid record of the US overthrowing governments left, right, and center around the world. The military dictatorships, the death squads, etc. The point I'm making is that the West, particularly the US since the end of WWII, is in no position to claim cleaner hands than Russia, and least of all use that claim to justify their actions as being more well-intentioned than Russia's.
If countries next door to yours which are allied to a major historical foe (known for using underhanded tactics to manipulate and overthrow governments and for starting major wars) having missiles, including nuclear ones, pointed at you is not a threat, I'm not sure what you would consider a threat. For comparison, the US nearly completely lost its shit when tiny Cuba had a handful of Russian nukes located there. If you can't see why Russia would be extremely concerned about a powerful, armed anti-Russia coalition immediately next door to them, I don't think there's much point in continuing the discussion.
You're trying to twist my words into something they're not. That part of the conversation was relating to your assertion that Russia was so threatening that it justified NATO expansion. I see that you also didn't address the second part of my last post, about why Russia would feel existentially threatened by that same NATO expansion.
From NATO's own mouth:
Despite their claims that NATO had/has any purposes other than as a Soviet deterrent, that was its main purpose and as such it should have been dissolved or fundamentally restructured after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. But no, it continued on and now its main role continues to be as an anti-Russia alliance.
Fact Sheet: U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe - maybe the nuclear missiles aren't pointed at Russia and ready to be launched at the press of a button, but do you think that the US keeps over 100 nuclear weapons (by 2021) in 5 European countries for anything other than to use it against Russia at short notice?
It seems that you just can't see things from Russia's perspective. I ask again, how would the US react if Mexico had Russian-controlled nuclear weapons based there and Canada started moving to join the same "defensive" alliance? This is not whataboutism, but to illustrate that NATO is understandably seen by Russia as a major threat to their national security. Does their perspective not matter?
Yes, I've mentioned multiple times in this thread including in the discussion with you that the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991. NATO should've rightfully been dissolved a short time after that.
You keep moving around and not addressing my questions. Let me simplify it: would you feel threatened by an adversarial nation from a different continent across an ocean placing a bunch of nuclear weapons in a country neighboring yours? Yes or no?
The first and primary reason for NATO existing: "deterring Soviet expansionism". Distance makes a lot of difference. 30 minutes for a missile from the US to reach Russia. 2-3 minutes for one from Europe to reach them. That's enough of a difference for people to get into bunkers or not. You are being disingenuous in not admitting that bringing nuclear weapons across an ocean and placing them next door will be perceived as very threatening, regardless of whatever explanations are given. Think about how asymmetric that power is too. The US reaches Russia in 2-3 minutes with their nuclear weapons, while it would take Russia 30 minutes to do the same. It means Russia would effectively be largely wiped out before they would have a chance to return fire to the US.
Since you're just not willing to admit that such "defensive" moves can feel very threatening to another country despite evidence and logic, there's no point in discussing further.
I haven't mentioned a submarine in any of my posts. You're the one who brought them up. I'm not concerned about the scenario that I described because the country I live in doesn't have nuclear weapons from a distant foe nearby. We were discussing why Russia would legitimately feel that these things were a serious national security threat, but I see you're intent on sealioning. I've had enough of it, so I will not be responding further.
Edit: on second thought, I've blocked you since you're not willing to have an honest discussion.
Edit 2: unblocked you because I decided my threshold for blocking someone is higher than this. I just won't discuss politics with you in the future.
You're just not willing to accept that I may even possibly have valid points and are now laughing and accusing me of dishonesty. That's enough. Like I said in my last post, I no longer wish to discuss this with you.
Thanks for clarifying. I think there may be a misunderstanding about my argument. I'm not saying that distance necessarily makes us safer from my own perspective. I could agree with you that mutually assured destruction is probably the end result regardless of distance. The point I'm making is that for military and national security experts, distance (and consequently time before being hit) is assuredly considered a factor, despite what you or I may think. This article may provide some useful background on these concepts. There may be better articles out there but I happened to run across this one when I searched for when ICBMs became viable.
I've mentioned this before, but the US nearly completely lost it when they found out that there were Russian nukes in Cuba in 1962. The same exact scenario would be just as alarming to the US today. Trying to wave away Russia's concerns with this type of scenario is unrealistic. Have you ever watched Dr. Mearsheimer speak? If you haven't, it's worth looking on Youtube for his name and Russia or Ukraine. He is a renowned scholar in international relations who has a realistic perspective of West-Russia relations and who speaks very clearly about it.