asieriko

You always can see the las km on YouTube

I agree. I see them all at the front, I expect an attack from Remco on the next climbs Cherave or Huy, climbing hard by the team, and then, at the top the attack. There are around 40km to the finish.

It's raining. I hoped that Evenepoel would try a long range attack, because I don't see him with the others on Huy. But with this weather I'm not so sure. On the other hand he can take it as a quality training.

If they all arrive to the last climb, I only imagine Nys beating (or trying to) Pogacar.

I see two main contenders Van der Poel and Pogacar. After San Remo, I believe that Mathieu is stronger as he was able to follow Pogacar on both climbs. In order to win Pogacar should drop MVP, and even if the climbs are harder than in San Remo, they are shorter and better suited to Van der Poel.

Pedersen and Ganna are strong too, but I see them below the other two. I give them chances if the race is played differently, a crazy race with no control.

Finally, Van Aert et al. should be there too, but I see him incapable of fighting Van der Poel, he is very strong in stage races but has problems in one day's. And Jorgenson is strong, but I don't see him with the two favorites and hardly with Ganna and Pedersen.

Let's see

But Pedersen and Ganna were too strong on Paris-Nice and Tirreno, I don't know if they will be better. On the other hand Mathieu is improving with respect to Tirreno. And after his climbing performance in San Remo I don't see Pogacar dropping him on Flandres, and even less on Roubaix.

I hope for a team strategy like Ineos did when Van Vaarle won.

Very strong Van der Poel, clearly superior to Pedersen and Ganna. Pogacar will be the only rival for the cobbled monuments.

Disappointing Van Aert, lately he doesn't deliver in the races that should matter to him.

Yeah, Ganna is definitely strong. He can be a surprise in the cobbles.

However, I don't see any stronger than Van der Poel now. I thought that he was not on a very good shape on Tirreno, but watching him yesterday the only option I see is a team ride like Ineos did when Van Baarle won in 2022.

Pogacar could be there too, but I don't see him beating VDP.

When at half Poggio Pogacar couldn't go solo, I pictured MVP winning, if not for a surprise attack from Ganna.

Now I see very difficult for Pogacar winning MSR or Paris Roubaix, he needs harder races.

You nailed it!

Surprisingly they are not letting the break open a big gap. I has been a bit more than 5 minutes, but now I almost 3, with more than 200k to go.

The big question for today:

Will Pogacar try something climbing the Cipressa?

I cuold see it if they climb it so fast that only a few riders arrive to the las km

I think Pedersen is very strong, and he has done goog MSR before. On the other hand I have doubts about Van der Poel, I known that he is able to win without racing, but I didn't see him good in previous races.

About Pogacar I'm divided, he tried the las two years the same (hard pace by Wellens), but he wasn't able to drop the contenders, Poggio is not hard enough. But, I do remember how he was able to win in Flandes, where I thought thar it would be too difficult for him to drop Van der Poel. I think that he has to arrive to the poggio with some seconds because he is not the best descender (not bad, but not the best).

Ganna is very strong, and not only on flats but also on climbs. He has climbed the Poggio with Pogacar before. I believe that he has his chances.

And you can never rule out Matthews in this race. Mohoric is also there. Magnus Cort can be an outsider to, but I don't see him winning this race.

There are other names too, which may have a chance if the first on Poggio slown down and produce a bigger group.

Let's see.