TwinkleToes

right. Well - we're not talking about Israel at all here, sorry. I'm sure there's lots of space to discuss it not in an explicitly Ukraine themed thread.

Kind of obvious that this was always The Plan. And they will probably go much further than logic/reality justifies, because there is no going back. This is an all or nothing gamble by the black hearted, petromafia gangster ghouls in charge of Russia. They will never again have the remotest element of surprise that they would actually do this type of naked imperial land grab against sovreign European states.

But - the landscape now is way beyond the likely most pessimistic estimates they had in their 2022 war plans. Primary o&g export markets destroyed. The majority of their soviet military stockpile inheritance destroyed. 1 million+ war casualities that will be a burden on the state going forward in terms of pension, disability, and military usefulness. A stable of third-rate allies of limited diplomatic use who only run on bribes. The implosion of their most pugnacious allies (Wagner, Syria, Iran and it's proxies Hamas and Hezbollah) who had been most useful in creating mischief among Russia's western enemies. Terminal demographic decline pushed into hyperdrive by this maniacally stalemated war. The critical loss of power projection into the Baltic, Black Sea and Mediterranean. The depletion of missile stocks. The implosion of their arms export industry due to the crap perforamnce of their second rate 'good enough' weapons systems compared to commercially available drone technologies. The demonstrated impotence of their air defense. Their new vassal status as the junior partner to China, to whom they can refuse no requests for resources on favorable terms going forward. The declining strategic importance & increasingly large extraction costs of their only real exports, oil & gas + minerals, made worse by their willful destruction of their own labour force.

Hell - the very abrupt obsolescene of their entire way of Horde War. Their philosophy since the 1950's was that it didn't matter that NATO had better gear - their medium tier tanks and artillery was good enough as long as you had enough of it, and that they could push from Poland to Portugal before NATO even started to think about being able to respond, because the Euros are a bunch of feckless pussies who won't fight anyways....right? Tanks, artillery and crude, inhuman mass have proven to be NOWHERE near as overwhelming as they assumed, even in a flat, relatively poorly equipped country right next door.

It's maddening that Russia continues to insist it's winning but - in the big picture.....they're getting absolutely obliterated, at the micro and macro level. It's not necessary for them to admit it for it to be objectively true. The war ends when Putin dies, full stop. How that happens is the only thing left to ponder.

? nobody mentioned Israel. Well - you did, but not sure why. I take that back - I have an idea why. I'm sure I'm going to regret responding to a 2d old burner account - but, here we are.

Fo Sho. I guess what I'm saying is it's still amazing how truly awful he is at it. And it screams how utterly desperate and terrible Russia's position is, despite their bluster and obvious failures, that they are somehow winning.

You can understand why they are trying to strong arm Ukraine into absurd concessions for almost nothing in return in terms of security guarantees - the war is not going well for Russia, they're still within a cab ride of their start position, destroyed their entire soviet arsenal inheritance, lost the Black Sea fleet, lost their 30-year Oil and Gas war chest, lost vital pieces of the Air Force's C&C, destroyed their primary oil export markets to Europe, wiped out their arms export industry, have made themselves a global pariah for decades, suffered 1 million casualties....etc etc etc.

And Trump is an obese octogenarian, who eats like a stoned toddler, and is likely to get his maneuverability clipped in the mid-terms. They're on a speed run to try and force an agreement that is more favorable to Russia than reality, never mind justice, should allow. This war will likely go down as one of the greatest self-owns in the history of foolhardy imperial misadventures. The scale of it is not far off of the Persians deciding to go teach that impudent Alexander a lesson. Trump's absurd tactics is, like so much of his entire schtick, based on complete bullshit and disastrous assumptions about how strong his position is. 4D Chess.

Curious whether a spectacular attack against Moscow during this period would be beneficial to Ukraine or not. Ukraine could always have fought a 'dirtier' version of this war, like how they blew up Dugin's daughter early on. They undoubtedly could be doing more terroristic type attacks in Russia, but one of Ukraine's supporters' valued concepts is the moral high ground. Since the Dugin bombing, they have only targeted high level military officials and a prominent Z Blogger with assassination attacks here and there.

The irony of the orange Moron withdrawing most support is that he has little remaining leverage to make either side do anything. The Art of the Deal, you see. 4D checkers.

If Ukraine launched a wave attack on Victory Day, is it more likely that would trigger a vicious response, demoralize Russians into believing this war isn't worthwhile, maybe both? It would definitely trigger a harsh response - but like the Tet offensive...which was a tactical disaster for North Vietnam...it did shock the U.S. so much that the war was seen as unwinnable afterwards. But - that's not a perfect example, because there is no Walter Kronkite in Russia, and public opinion doesn't count worth a sack of rotten beets.

Hard to say whether Ukraine should respect it and hope it translates to a ceasefire, or whether to really go for it and show the Russians and their leadership that they not only cannot win this war, but that they cannot protect themselves from embarrassment, and that it's not going to get better until they get serious about fucking off.

No serious minded person expects Russia to respect any truce anyways, in the short or long term. The only way to ensure long term peace is to destroy Russia's long term capabilities. Even with European support alone, they can probably continue to bleed out and degrade the Russian war machine for a long time yet. Funny, all Trump's bullshit bluster about how Ukraine 'doesn't have the cards'. They absolutely do. They have a lot more cards to play than Trump does.

This is a great way to call Trump's bluff and expose his true allegiance. Of course, Trump refuses this out of hand even though it's completely in-line with his talking points about wanting Europe to buy American arms and invest in their own defense. Yet - it's a flat no from him. Zelensky could have done this offer behind the scenes, but he does so publicly because he knows what the answer will be, and that it exposes Trump's true motivations.

This is a basic lying tactic he has used his entire life. Just keep repeating a complete and obvious lie, until people's brains break it down into "yeah that sounds right, I've heard that before". At that point, it's as useful as actually being true. He is the richest, most successful, winningest winner that ever won. Everyone except him is wrong, corrupt or a loo-zah. There's nothing magical about this demented toddler's mindset.

There's been traitors for as long as there's been warfare.

Flapping your arms and gums about WHAT he's done is less important to think about than WHY has he done this. It's ridiculous and irrational on it's face.

But - it makes perfect sense if you start from a place that this is a colossal distraction. But why? Well - ultimately, if you accept that Trump works for Putin, then consider that the Russians are unable to defeat Ukraine right now on the battlefield, given the support that they continue to get from Europe. Putin and Trump have collaborated to remove US support - mission accomplished. But - they don't have direct leverage over Europe to try and erode European support for ukraine as well. So - if you're starting from a place that you wanted Russia to win and that's the ONLY thing you care about...what would you do? How can you erode Europe's ability to support Ukraine?

Initiate a devastating global recession to destroy governments' ability to focus on supporting Ukraine, and hope that they crawl back to supporting their own economies.

That's the answer. This is ALL happening

a) because Russia is starting to lose, and will lose very bigly and very quickly...soon b) Trump is 80 years old, and his window of being able to help Putin is closing with every Big Mac and Diet Coke he eats c) Putin himself is in advanced age and probably declining health d) Russia's equipment reserves are passing replacement rate levels, which leads to a MAJOR degradation in their offensive potential. Things don't get a little worse - they're getting EXPONENTIALLY worse e) Since they can't directly stop European aid, they are trying to do it indirectly by initiating a global recession and trade war.

Just opinions, you're under no obligation to agree. But - what else makes sense? The only other thing I could reasonably accept if it wasn't 100% that Trump works for Russia, is that somehow along the tarriffs chain, that he is skimming a percentage, like a classic Mafia casino scam. He may well be doing that as well as aiding Russia. But he's certainly not doing all of this - and excluding Russia, Belarus and Hungary from tarriffs - for no particular reason at all. The reasons are fairly damn obvious.

This story comes out every year, when russia announces their normal conscription process. These enlistees a) go to basic training - which for Russians is totally insufficient to make a difference on the ukrainian battlefield, b) can't and haven't been used for offensive operations, c) Mostly cycle back to civilian life when they're done. This isn't special, it isn't news, and if he were stupid enough to rush these guys from their jobs as delivery drivers, baristas, IT support and tire shop technicians into the battlefields, the entirety of them would be chewed up in about 3 months. This isn't a story. This is their normal conscription process.

As is usually the case, Trump has badly overplayed his hand without actually having even a fraction of the leverage he assumes he does. The US is rapidly making themselves utterly irrelevant to the process. Ukraine seems to clearly understand that the only way for a lasting peace is to erode Russia's warmaking capability permanently. They can continue to fight at this intensity with drones and small territorial exchanges for a long, long time yet, even if the US fully withdraws all support.

Trump going further and actively aiding Russia is a) insane b) not implausible and c) would result in American deaths that he would then have to explain a justification for, in a war that is allegedly none of america's business anyways. No serious minded person expects Russia to abide by ANY peace deal in the long term, so from Ukraine's perspective, it makes much more sense to keep fighting. It's fight for your lasting freedom, or wait for another round of attempted enslavement.

The frantic speed run to try and strong arm Ukraine into an unjust peace is failing. It's very telling that they're turning the crazy up to 11, because he is nearly 80 years old, morbidly obese, lives on KFC and insane hatred. And if Russia could do any more than they currently are, they would have already done it. It's a ridiculous bluff, Ukraine and their European backers have called it. For Europe, the degree of danger is not abstract or a partisan issue to score cheap political points off of. They're going to give Ukraine what it needs to continue bleeding out Russia, at least long enough for Putin, Trump or both to die off.

What hurdles does a peace plan face? The fact that Krasnov will not stop at simply ending US support, or even removing the US from NATO. He will take more and more measures to punish European support of ukraine, in order to try and get a better settlement for his boss in the Kremlin

The reason the crazy has been turned up to 12, is because Russia is stalled and their position gets weaker from here on in. Russia can't advance, they've been smashing their hollow skulls against Pokrovsk and Toretsk for nearly a year. Ukraine is countering their FAB glide bombs now, is beginning slowly to push back in the Donbas, and domestic drone and weapon production is lessening their level of dependency on outside sources like the US. Ukraine hasn't conscripted anyone under 25, and are getting decent uptake on the volunteer enlistment packages. Russia, on the other hand, has stalled, is sending men into battle on dirtbikes and donkeys, can't remotely replace their hardware losses in any aspect, and if they wanted more manpower today, they would have had to enact wider conscription 6 months ago. Which they didn't. Their capacity to make significant gains in Ukraine has essentially stopped, but Ukraine's ability to erode their current holdings is accelerating.

In short - Russia' options get worse from here on in. That's why Trump is, on obvious orders, trying to strong arm a ludicrous deal that ukraine doesn't need to accept. Trump isn't going to stop punishing ukraine's supporters until Russia gets more than it deserves, given the state of things on the ground.