Tobberone

Oh... There is another month until the solstice. It will get worse before it gets better.

My sincerest condolences.

Long haulers usually prefer to gas up at their own private facilities to keep costs down, as I've understood it, using gas stations more as an emergency refilling. I'm not sure if that market is big enough to carry the entire infrastructure itself.

Construction is another big sector for diesel, but in both transport and construction there is a lot of work being put into moving the sector to electrification. Which is well, because given how fast the automotive market has turned change might be fairly quick.

There are other uses as well, but will they be able to carry the market? Driving the need for supertankers and trillions worth of investment in oil infrastructure with fuel cans at the chemistry shops? With rising production costs for big oil? I don't know if I'm more relieved or more anxious about the idea...

Well, I may be cynical, but I'm asking two questions:

1. Who owns media?
2. What happens in a society when EV reach 90-95% market share? What happen when the last petrol station goes bust? Which infrastructure will follow?

I see a huge interest in not letting incumbent infrastructure fail. That's what electrification is up against

Oh, Karen...

Due to the other comment below, i spoke with the guys that run our panels and they answered "well, in theory..."

I'm guessing here, but it might be an issue with the controllers, or that the idea of turning them off is simply inconceivable (why would I turn mine off and let others make money), or something else. But it doesn't seem like standard practice.

Interesting! Is the idea to use excess electricity to heat the sand and then reproduce power via Steam turbine? Any idea how the heat is extracted ?

I've heard of a similar plant, but that used mirrors to heat up the sand directly, rather than using it as a way to use excess electricity.

Same idea, different material is thermal storage in sand.

Please expand! Why is this not an issue with solar?

Unfortunately it is a problem that needs solving. Electricity needs to be used as it is produced and if its not, it will be a problem. Where i live, the de facto solution today is to heat the oceans. That's not a viable long term solution and why we urgently need to find a way to store energy!

Don't get me wrong, setting up homes to be more energy efficient also needs to be done and may be a bigger issue, but the V2G has been in the horizon for years but has been held back by lack of standardisation and support. That steps are taken in this regard are also great!

Well, wind, sun and fossil free heating spells the terms of divorce with the oil industry. No wonder they fight so hard to block it.

What happens when a nation like Norway goes 92% EV? There will not be any demand for the oil infrastructure, so within the time these last fossil fueled cars goes to the scrap yard, so will the market for fuel stations etc.

Don't get me wrong, the market for rest stops and charging will be the same, but the costs of servicing the pumps and the risks of varying fuel prices will not cover itself. So it will not be carried along.

What about heavy transport? It will take longer, but in time it will go the same way. And prices will increase. With falling demand, perhaps not the price of the fuel, but the costs of keeping the service running. That will be a big upheaval in the automotive service industry.

Geopolitically? Unless you can produce your own oil, it's a big win on independence. It is also a big win in regards to availability. Instead of knocking out 1 plant, an aggressor would have to knock out 10000 small, private production facilities on roof tops. Also a big win.

And if you are able to produce your own oil, it will instead become a liability when those still dependant on oil needs to secure their supply...

Yeah, I got that. And the point of my post was that expecting and planning for a 35% share is neither unreasonable nor impossible. The "impossible" part is on Toyota, not California.

The UK and Germany are both at about 25% EV adoption, as per news here the last days. That's a combined market about half the size of the USA. That seems to work out rather well in terms of supply.

Unless of course, we exclude all non-american car makers in the world. And that's the issue, isn't it?

The pattern is well established. As societies grow wealthier and more secular, and woman gain greater agency, birthrates come down.

Well, urbanisation and our inability to plan cities for kids might, just might, have something to do with it. In the town I work 1/6 of families that live in urban neighbourhoods have kids, while it's 4/10-5/10 in areas of bungalows with proper gardens.

Add an unstable political/medical/economical environment and housing policy becomes relevant. In good times it might be ok to have kids while living in a city flat and plan for moving to greener pastures as it becomes necessary, but not if you can't count on having a job when it's time to buy a new house. And with the housing market being what it is today for first time buyers...

No wonder nobody wants to have a baby!