Nightwingdragon

So is this a 12 hour ceasefire? 24? Permanent (read: until the next time)?

And why does it start in 6 hours? Do the two sides get to just lob missiles at each other for the next 6 hours and then just say "gg" in a text to each other or something?

Whether Trump had anything to do with any agreed upon deal should also be taken with several grains of salt. Remember, he likes to take credit for things he had nothing to do with such as the ceasefire between India and Pakistan. This assumes there is even a tentative ceasefire in place, which itself I question given the source.

Or Iran could just be playing Trump for a fool. Let Trump think that he won because he's the bestest thing ever, and then while he's taking a victory lap, lob some bombs at Tel Aviv and make Trump look like a complete moron in the process.

Barring the participation of larger military countries such as China and Russia, Iran (and the Middle East in general) does not have the capability to retaliate against the US in any militarily significant way outside of symbolic attacks on US bases in the area. Troops are never going to set foot on US soil. Planes are never going to reach US airspace. Missiles will be shot down over the water long before they get close to US territory. The US is in a unique position on the globe that makes any kind of military attack or invasion borderline impossible. I do not fear "WW3" or anything because Iran has no capability of taking action that could spark WW3 independently, or even in a coalition with regional allies.

What I do believe will happen will be terror attacks on the US mainland by suicide bombers and Iran sympathizers. It's the only possible way that Iran can directly attack the US in any meaningful way, as it would be again borderline impossible to stop a lone wolf attacker from landing on US soil, heading to Home Depot to buy some supplies, and pulling a Timothy McVeigh. And Iran isn't on a time schedule here. They can wait a month, 3 months, a year or more if they want, wait for our guard to be down, and launch a retaliatory terror attack in the middle of East Bumfuck, Idaho. Or smack dab in the middle of Chicago. Or at a baseball game. I am infinitely more afraid of them pulling something like that than I am of this turning into WW3.

And if Iran's top advisors have half a brain, they'll allow the US to continue thinking that today's attack on the base in Qatar is the end of it. The "symbolic gesture" of retaliation meant to save face. Let the US think that this is all they're going to do and then spend the next 6 months planning for the real attacks. Heck, play into Trump's ego and let him believe that Iran is too afraid of Trump to do anything else. He'd be dumb enough to fall for it.

Trump doesn't even get that far. He stopped at the words "due process" and said "Nope."

As far as I'm concerned, the next terrorist bombing on US soil is Trump's fault. And the one after that. And the one after that. Because they are going to retaliate. There's no chance that they'll be able to directly attack the US with planes, military troops, or even missiles. So most likely their response is going to come in the form of a WTC-style bombing.

What frustrates me is how we, especially on the left, tend to fumble these moments. Instead of recognizing that some of these people might be waking up, we rush to humiliate them. We waste the opportunity to build something better just so we can rub their faces in it and get our own little high.

I'll give a prime example of this: Liz Cheney.

Now don't get me wrong. I disagree with 99.9% of her policy decisions. And yes, she helped create the beast. But we keep asking when Republicans are going to finally say "I've had enough of this." and stand up to Trump. And she did. Again, say what you will about her policies but in the end, she literally put her career on the line and got excommunicated from her own party in order to expose Trump and attempt to hold him accountable.

And we responded to the courage it must have taken her to be the first prominent member of her party to break ranks with Trump by ostracizing her too. "HAHAHA now teh leopardz r eating ur face". We laughed as she was basically run out of politics at warp speed. Rather than at least try to work with her and use her to build a bipartisan coalition against Trump, we decided to get a few kicks of our own in while she was down. And then we wonder why nobody else from the party has followed in her footsteps.

I'm not saying we should have thrown her a ticker-tape parade or anything like that. But we keep asking what it's going to take for Republicans to break ranks and cross the aisle to stand up to Trump. How can we expect them to do that when that is how they're going to be treated? If the best Democrats have to offer them is to make fun of them and kick them while they're down, it shouldn't be a surprise that they stick to the abusive relationship they're already in. And I'm not saying that we needed to vote her back into office. But there was an opportunity to use the influence she had to at least try to build a bipartisan coalition against Trump and we squandered it because we have also allowed politics to get so tribal that anyone on the other side is always wrong no matter what and is always the enemy forever and ever and ever amen instead of ever admitting that they may actually have a point once in a while.

Let me know when they start doing something about it.

So my guess is that the Republicans who signed on to the "bipartisan" bill preventing Trump from taking action against Iran are suddenly going to have a whole lot of nothing to say......

I want people to realize the outsized amount of leverage that farmers will have on their employees. Employers will literally be able to say that they'll do what they're told and take whatever they're given or the employer can just drop a dime to ICE and have them deported without being able to settle their affairs or contact their families.

Once again, people can say "this is illegal" all they want.

But nobody seems to be willing or able to actually do anything about it. Chuck Schumer can call it a "silly piece of paper" all he wants, but right now he and his colleagues are being held off by that silly piece of paper.

Is anyone going to do anything about it? No. Is anyone going to force their way into these facilities? No. Is anyone in ICE going to face consequences for spinning this policy out of whole cloth? No. Which means, for all intents and purposes, what they're doing is de-facto legal.

Not that anyone will be around to learn about it.....

This goes to show just how far AI speech-to-text recognition has become. It's absolutely amazing. All the assistant on Huckabee's phone heard was "GLARGGGGARGLLLARGGGARGLEGARRRGL" for about 20 or so seconds, and it immediately knew what Huckabee was trying to say while gobbling down Trump's balls.

I wish Kristi Noem the same level of comfort that she enforces upon others.