Leegh

joined 3 years ago
[–] [email protected] 40 points 2 months ago

Fedposting is cancelled today

[–] [email protected] 17 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

My theory: tech CEOs threatened Trump to back off the tariffs and he initially caved in, BUT, then made a counter demand that tech CEOs bring all manufacturing back to America to which they immediately said bugs-no so now Trump is threatening to bring tariffs back.

There's probably a fuck load of infighting going on in the administration too, and ofc Trump's insider trading buddies who want this flip flopping to continue so they can keep doing market manipulation.

Truly America's Gorbachev era.

[–] [email protected] 50 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Tim Cook was not gonna let Trump cook his shiny fruit products

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

There are a couple of key differences between Taiwan and Ukraine which may not allow them to pan out the same way in a potential war scenario.

The first is geography: Taiwan is a tiny island that has to rely wholly on ship and air transport to bring goods into the country, including military hardware. A Chinese blockade on the island would absolutely cripple their economy and fighting capacity, and would make a war of attrition very easy to win. Only a US intervention through sea and air supremacy could break this (something China is aware of and has been developing their missile tech for this reason).

On the other hand, Russia’s war of attrition dragging out for so long and Ukraine still not folding is due to Ukraine sharing a massive land border with the rest of Europe and can still easily receive military hardware and economic aid through land trade. Russia also cannot completely blockade the country due to NATO encirclement, which is why choosing to not rapidly take over the country but instead just park their troops outside Kyiv back in 2022 to pressure the government was a massive strategic mistake.

The second difference is the politics itself: Taiwanese politics is not the typical left-right continuum and is more about Reunification vs Independence. This is represented by the KMT-led pan-blue coalition, and the DPP-led Pan-green coalition. While the Pro-independence DPP is currently in power (largely due to public perceptions of KMT corruption and being more socially conservative), the idea of independence is still not popular in Taiwan based on 2024 census. Most Taiwanese are just waiting out to see how the US-China Cold War plays out while still officially being the Republic of China.

Furthermore, a Chinese invasion would likely greatly embolden the KMT and push the public towards them (they could say something like “see? This is what you get for allowing the DPP separatists to move away from Chinese reunification, we will end this war by offering a quick peace with the PRC”). It also doesn’t help that America already signalled that they are more than willing to throw Taiwan under the bus if China forces their hand by bombing their semiconductor facilities. They didn’t do the same for Ukraine (at least until this year) because muh White Western civilization being attacked by evil eastern hordes.

Finally, Zelenskyy was able to stay in power by suspending elections and banning all opposition parties that challenged his pro-war/ pro-west narrative. The DPP is in no position to do that given much of the military is still loyal to the KMT thanks to the Chiang Kai-Shek military dictatorship-era, and trying to ban the KMT (which has a different foreign policy to the DPP) would very likely cause the KMT to seize power and declare marshal law with the backing of the military instead.

[–] [email protected] 28 points 2 months ago (2 children)

What's the point of continually raising tariffs with China when the US can still get Chinese goods from intermediary countries like Vietnam?

Didn't the White House just LAST WEEK refuse to do any trade deals with Vietnam for this exact reason??

And even if this reduces the US trade deficit somehow (it won't because of China's counter tariffs), Trump just paused all other tariffs which signals to the US market to just keep doing what it's always been doing!

WTF is this administration doing???

[–] [email protected] 14 points 2 months ago

Give it a week, they'll negotiate a de-escalation or pause on their tariffs too once Trump figures out how much they still need China (yes I'm quietly seething here).

[–] [email protected] 30 points 2 months ago

angry-place It's not about the money, it's about sending a message: nothing ever happens.

[–] [email protected] 24 points 3 months ago

I was thinking more Iran. As someone on the current megathread pointed out, there is currently a quiet mass buildup of US military assets in the ME while the media is wholly distracted by the tariffs and stocks imploding.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Is it me or does Tokugawa's hat look a bit sus?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago

Fascists are surprised that the Fascists they invited to their Fascist conference think they are racially superior to them. Shocker.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago

China opens its first wholly foreign-owned Hospital

Personally I don’t see anything good coming out of a private hospital firm that according to the company CEO is going to “serve high-end customers”.

I hope the CPC will seize the business when it goes under.

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