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Hacking group RedJuliett compromised two dozen organisations in Taiwan and elsewhere, report says.

A suspected China-backed hacking outfit has intensified attacks on organisations in Taiwan as part of Beijing’s intelligence-gathering activities on the self-governing island, a cybersecurity firm has said.

The hacking group, RedJuliett, compromised two dozen organisations between November 2023 and April of this year, likely in support of intelligence collection on Taiwan’s diplomatic relations and technological development, Recorded Future said in a report released on Monday.

RedJuliett exploited vulnerabilities in internet-facing appliances, such as firewalls and virtual private networks (VPNs), to compromise its targets, which included tech firms, government agencies and universities, the United States-based cybersecurity firm said.

RedJuliett also conducted “network reconnaissance or attempted exploitation” against more than 70 Taiwanese organisations, including multiple de facto embassies, according to the firm.

“Within Taiwan, we observed RedJuliett heavily target the technology industry, including organisations in critical technology fields. RedJuliett conducted vulnerability scanning or attempted exploitation against a semiconductor company and two Taiwanese aerospace companies that have contracts with the Taiwanese military,” Recorded Future said in its report.

“The group also targeted eight electronics manufacturers, two universities focused on technology, an industrial embedded systems company, a technology-focused research and development institute, and seven computing industry associations.”

While nearly two-thirds of the targets were in Taiwan, the group also compromised organisations elsewhere, including religious organisations in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea and a university in Djibouti.

Recorded Future said it expected Chinese state-sponsored hackers to continue targeting Taiwan for intelligence-gathering activities.

"We also anticipate that Chinese state-sponsored groups will continue to focus on conducting reconnaissance against and exploiting public-facing devices, as this has proved a successful tactic in scaling initial access against a wide range of global targets,” the cybersecurity firm said.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its embassy in Washington, DC did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Beijing has previously denied engaging in cyber-espionage – a practice carried out by governments worldwide – instead casting itself as a regular victim of cyberattacks.

China claims democratically ruled Taiwan as part of its territory, although the Chinese Communist Party has never exerted control over the island.

Relations between Beijing and Taipei have deteriorated as Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party has sought to boost the island’s profile on the international stage.

On Monday, Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te hit out at Beijing after it issued legal guidelines threatening the death penalty for those who advocate Taiwanese independence.

“I want to stress, democracy is not a crime; it’s autocracy that is the real evil,” Lai told reporters.

Lai, whom Beijing has branded a “separatist”, has said there is no need to formally declare independence for Taiwan because it is already an independent sovereign state.

Hacking group RedJuliett compromised two dozen organisations in Taiwan and elsewhere, report says.

A suspected China-backed hacking outfit has intensified attacks on organisations in Taiwan as part of Beijing’s intelligence-gathering activities on the self-governing island, a cybersecurity firm has said.

The hacking group, RedJuliett, compromised two dozen organisations between November 2023 and April of this year, likely in support of intelligence collection on Taiwan’s diplomatic relations and technological development, Recorded Future said in a report released on Monday.

RedJuliett exploited vulnerabilities in internet-facing appliances, such as firewalls and virtual private networks (VPNs), to compromise its targets, which included tech firms, government agencies and universities, the United States-based cybersecurity firm said.

RedJuliett also conducted “network reconnaissance or attempted exploitation” against more than 70 Taiwanese organisations, including multiple de facto embassies, according to the firm.

“Within Taiwan, we observed RedJuliett heavily target the technology industry, including organisations in critical technology fields. RedJuliett conducted vulnerability scanning or attempted exploitation against a semiconductor company and two Taiwanese aerospace companies that have contracts with the Taiwanese military,” Recorded Future said in its report.

“The group also targeted eight electronics manufacturers, two universities focused on technology, an industrial embedded systems company, a technology-focused research and development institute, and seven computing industry associations.”

While nearly two-thirds of the targets were in Taiwan, the group also compromised organisations elsewhere, including religious organisations in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea and a university in Djibouti.

Recorded Future said it expected Chinese state-sponsored hackers to continue targeting Taiwan for intelligence-gathering activities.

"We also anticipate that Chinese state-sponsored groups will continue to focus on conducting reconnaissance against and exploiting public-facing devices, as this has proved a successful tactic in scaling initial access against a wide range of global targets,” the cybersecurity firm said.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its embassy in Washington, DC did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Beijing has previously denied engaging in cyber-espionage – a practice carried out by governments worldwide – instead casting itself as a regular victim of cyberattacks.

China claims democratically ruled Taiwan as part of its territory, although the Chinese Communist Party has never exerted control over the island.

Relations between Beijing and Taipei have deteriorated as Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party has sought to boost the island’s profile on the international stage.

On Monday, Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te hit out at Beijing after it issued legal guidelines threatening the death penalty for those who advocate Taiwanese independence.

“I want to stress, democracy is not a crime; it’s autocracy that is the real evil,” Lai told reporters.

Lai, whom Beijing has branded a “separatist”, has said there is no need to formally declare independence for Taiwan because it is already an independent sovereign state.

Hacking group RedJuliett compromised two dozen organisations in Taiwan and elsewhere, report says.

A suspected China-backed hacking outfit has intensified attacks on organisations in Taiwan as part of Beijing’s intelligence-gathering activities on the self-governing island, a cybersecurity firm has said.

The hacking group, RedJuliett, compromised two dozen organisations between November 2023 and April of this year, likely in support of intelligence collection on Taiwan’s diplomatic relations and technological development, Recorded Future said in a report released on Monday.

RedJuliett exploited vulnerabilities in internet-facing appliances, such as firewalls and virtual private networks (VPNs), to compromise its targets, which included tech firms, government agencies and universities, the United States-based cybersecurity firm said.

RedJuliett also conducted “network reconnaissance or attempted exploitation” against more than 70 Taiwanese organisations, including multiple de facto embassies, according to the firm.

“Within Taiwan, we observed RedJuliett heavily target the technology industry, including organisations in critical technology fields. RedJuliett conducted vulnerability scanning or attempted exploitation against a semiconductor company and two Taiwanese aerospace companies that have contracts with the Taiwanese military,” Recorded Future said in its report.

“The group also targeted eight electronics manufacturers, two universities focused on technology, an industrial embedded systems company, a technology-focused research and development institute, and seven computing industry associations.”

While nearly two-thirds of the targets were in Taiwan, the group also compromised organisations elsewhere, including religious organisations in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea and a university in Djibouti.

Recorded Future said it expected Chinese state-sponsored hackers to continue targeting Taiwan for intelligence-gathering activities.

"We also anticipate that Chinese state-sponsored groups will continue to focus on conducting reconnaissance against and exploiting public-facing devices, as this has proved a successful tactic in scaling initial access against a wide range of global targets,” the cybersecurity firm said.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its embassy in Washington, DC did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Beijing has previously denied engaging in cyber-espionage – a practice carried out by governments worldwide – instead casting itself as a regular victim of cyberattacks.

China claims democratically ruled Taiwan as part of its territory, although the Chinese Communist Party has never exerted control over the island.

Relations between Beijing and Taipei have deteriorated as Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party has sought to boost the island’s profile on the international stage.

On Monday, Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te hit out at Beijing after it issued legal guidelines threatening the death penalty for those who advocate Taiwanese independence.

“I want to stress, democracy is not a crime; it’s autocracy that is the real evil,” Lai told reporters.

Lai, whom Beijing has branded a “separatist”, has said there is no need to formally declare independence for Taiwan because it is already an independent sovereign state.

Canada's ambassador to Beijing visited the region of Xinjiang last week and expressed concerns about human rights violations directly to local leaders, the Canadian foreign ministry said in a statement on Sunday.

A 2022 report by the then U.N. human rights chief said China's treatment of Uyghurs, a mainly Muslim ethnic minority in Xinjiang, in the country's far west, could constitute crimes against humanity. Beijing denies the allegations.

Ambassador Jennifer May visited Xinjiang from June 19-22, the first such visit by a Canadian envoy in a decade. "(This) served as an opportunity to communicate Canadian concerns about the human rights situation directly to the leadership of Xinjiang," the ministry statement said.

"Ambassador May raised concerns over credible reports of systematic violations of human rights occurring in Xinjiang affecting Uyghurs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, including those raised by U.N. experts," it continued.

The Chinese embassy in Ottawa was not immediately available for comment. May visited Xinjiang a few weeks after Canada said it had warned China against meddling in its elections. In April, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Beijing had tried to interfere in the last two national votes, a charge China dismissed.

Campaign groups on Saturday urged U.N. human rights chief Volker Turk to take more action over what they said were documented abuses against Uyghurs and other Muslims.

May also reiterated Canada's calls for China to allow U.N. independent experts unfettered access to all regions of China, the statement said. Canada, like the United States, has imposed sanctions on individuals and entities over alleged rights abuses in Xinjiang.

Canada's ambassador to Beijing visited the region of Xinjiang last week and expressed concerns about human rights violations directly to local leaders, the Canadian foreign ministry said in a statement on Sunday.

A 2022 report by the then U.N. human rights chief said China's treatment of Uyghurs, a mainly Muslim ethnic minority in Xinjiang, in the country's far west, could constitute crimes against humanity. Beijing denies the allegations.

Ambassador Jennifer May visited Xinjiang from June 19-22, the first such visit by a Canadian envoy in a decade. "(This) served as an opportunity to communicate Canadian concerns about the human rights situation directly to the leadership of Xinjiang," the ministry statement said.

"Ambassador May raised concerns over credible reports of systematic violations of human rights occurring in Xinjiang affecting Uyghurs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, including those raised by U.N. experts," it continued.

The Chinese embassy in Ottawa was not immediately available for comment. May visited Xinjiang a few weeks after Canada said it had warned China against meddling in its elections. In April, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Beijing had tried to interfere in the last two national votes, a charge China dismissed.

Campaign groups on Saturday urged U.N. human rights chief Volker Turk to take more action over what they said were documented abuses against Uyghurs and other Muslims.

May also reiterated Canada's calls for China to allow U.N. independent experts unfettered access to all regions of China, the statement said. Canada, like the United States, has imposed sanctions on individuals and entities over alleged rights abuses in Xinjiang.

Canada's ambassador to Beijing visited the region of Xinjiang last week and expressed concerns about human rights violations directly to local leaders, the Canadian foreign ministry said in a statement on Sunday.

A 2022 report by the then U.N. human rights chief said China's treatment of Uyghurs, a mainly Muslim ethnic minority in Xinjiang, in the country's far west, could constitute crimes against humanity. Beijing denies the allegations.

Ambassador Jennifer May visited Xinjiang from June 19-22, the first such visit by a Canadian envoy in a decade. "(This) served as an opportunity to communicate Canadian concerns about the human rights situation directly to the leadership of Xinjiang," the ministry statement said.

"Ambassador May raised concerns over credible reports of systematic violations of human rights occurring in Xinjiang affecting Uyghurs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, including those raised by U.N. experts," it continued.

The Chinese embassy in Ottawa was not immediately available for comment. May visited Xinjiang a few weeks after Canada said it had warned China against meddling in its elections. In April, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Beijing had tried to interfere in the last two national votes, a charge China dismissed.

Campaign groups on Saturday urged U.N. human rights chief Volker Turk to take more action over what they said were documented abuses against Uyghurs and other Muslims.

May also reiterated Canada's calls for China to allow U.N. independent experts unfettered access to all regions of China, the statement said. Canada, like the United States, has imposed sanctions on individuals and entities over alleged rights abuses in Xinjiang.

Canada's ambassador to Beijing visited the region of Xinjiang last week and expressed concerns about human rights violations directly to local leaders, the Canadian foreign ministry said in a statement on Sunday.

A 2022 report by the then U.N. human rights chief said China's treatment of Uyghurs, a mainly Muslim ethnic minority in Xinjiang, in the country's far west, could constitute crimes against humanity. Beijing denies the allegations.

Ambassador Jennifer May visited Xinjiang from June 19-22, the first such visit by a Canadian envoy in a decade. "(This) served as an opportunity to communicate Canadian concerns about the human rights situation directly to the leadership of Xinjiang," the ministry statement said.

"Ambassador May raised concerns over credible reports of systematic violations of human rights occurring in Xinjiang affecting Uyghurs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, including those raised by U.N. experts," it continued.

The Chinese embassy in Ottawa was not immediately available for comment. May visited Xinjiang a few weeks after Canada said it had warned China against meddling in its elections. In April, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Beijing had tried to interfere in the last two national votes, a charge China dismissed.

Campaign groups on Saturday urged U.N. human rights chief Volker Turk to take more action over what they said were documented abuses against Uyghurs and other Muslims.

May also reiterated Canada's calls for China to allow U.N. independent experts unfettered access to all regions of China, the statement said. Canada, like the United States, has imposed sanctions on individuals and entities over alleged rights abuses in Xinjiang.

Canada's ambassador to Beijing visited the region of Xinjiang last week and expressed concerns about human rights violations directly to local leaders, the Canadian foreign ministry said in a statement on Sunday.

A 2022 report by the then U.N. human rights chief said China's treatment of Uyghurs, a mainly Muslim ethnic minority in Xinjiang, in the country's far west, could constitute crimes against humanity. Beijing denies the allegations.

Ambassador Jennifer May visited Xinjiang from June 19-22, the first such visit by a Canadian envoy in a decade. "(This) served as an opportunity to communicate Canadian concerns about the human rights situation directly to the leadership of Xinjiang," the ministry statement said.

"Ambassador May raised concerns over credible reports of systematic violations of human rights occurring in Xinjiang affecting Uyghurs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, including those raised by U.N. experts," it continued.

The Chinese embassy in Ottawa was not immediately available for comment. May visited Xinjiang a few weeks after Canada said it had warned China against meddling in its elections. In April, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Beijing had tried to interfere in the last two national votes, a charge China dismissed.

Campaign groups on Saturday urged U.N. human rights chief Volker Turk to take more action over what they said were documented abuses against Uyghurs and other Muslims.

May also reiterated Canada's calls for China to allow U.N. independent experts unfettered access to all regions of China, the statement said. Canada, like the United States, has imposed sanctions on individuals and entities over alleged rights abuses in Xinjiang.

Archived version

- Bad developments for Gazprom are predicted even in optimistic scenarios. The study authors expect Gazprom’s natural gas exports to Europe to continue at an annual rate of 50 to 75 bcm until 2035. As the Europeans intend to reduce their imports of Russian pipeline gas to zero by 2027, this premise may seem unrealistic.

- What’s more, Gazprom can’t really hope to pivot towards LNG as many assume, according to the report: it doesn’t have the skills and technologies required to carry out large-scale projects in that area, especially in a very difficult environment marked by US sanctions.

- Chinese market will only be able to compensate for the major loss of income from the European market (compared to the period before 2022 and the war in Ukraine) with great difficulty. In addition, Moscow's talks with Beijing about the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline are moving forward only slowly makinv an agreement in 2024 unlikely.--

Bad news is piling up for Gazprom. Already hit hard by a historic loss in 2023, the Russian company is also facing Chinese intransigence: talks between Moscow and Beijing about the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project are moving forward only with great difficulty, and a firm and final agreement this year looks unlikely at this stage. More recently, on June 12, it was revealed that the company’s gas production had fallen sharply last year to 359 bcm, as compared to 413 bcm in 2022 and 515 bcm in 2021. Gazprom’s only consolation is the fact that its total production (both oil and gas) rose by 6.6% last year to 72.4 MMtoe.

Above all, a recently published report commissioned by Gazprom’s management has poured cold water on the Russian group’s hopes for possible improvement within the next few years.

According to the 150-page document, the entire decade of the 2020s promises to be difficult for Gazprom. Yet the report’s authors haven’t adopted any catastrophic assumptions: they expect Gazprom’s natural gas exports to Europe to continue at an annual rate of 50 to 75 bcm until 2035.

As the Europeans intend to reduce their imports of Russian pipeline gas to zero by 2027, this premise may seem unrealistic.

But to continue exporting natural gas discreetly to the EU, the Russians are planning to rely on Turkey (which dreams of becoming a gas hub for the entire region). Gas transiting through Turkey would officially no longer be Russian but Turkish, or of indeterminate origin (Ankara could facilitate this system by importing gas from other countries, especially in the form of LNG). While such a situation hasn‘t materialized yet, this hypothesis isn’t totally far-fetched. And there’s even more good news for Gazprom: its exports to China (via the Power of Siberia 1 gas pipeline) will continue to grow, and the plan to supply the country via a new gas pipeline (Power of Siberia 2) is officially still on the table. So the export market (which is far more lucrative than the domestic market) isn’t a dead loss, mainly thanks to China.

However, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago, experts studying Gazprom’s “case” have run their calculations and come to the obvious conclusion: the Chinese market will only be able to compensate for the major loss of income from the European market (compared to the period before 2022 and the war in Ukraine) with great difficulty. The report mainly focuses on the most pessimistic forecasts, starting with Gazprom’s market share of Russian gas exports, which can be expected to decline substantially in favor of LNG, and therefore of Novatek, which is (and will remain) the main player in this area.

What’s more, Gazprom can’t really hope to pivot towards LNG: it doesn’t have the skills and technologies required to carry out large-scale projects in that area, especially in a very difficult environment marked by US sanctions (although Novatek is well positioned technologically, its Arctic LNG 2 project, which the United States is trying to torpedo, is in difficulty).

The report commissioned by Gazprom is based on the assumption that US sanctions against Russia are set to last, in line with the policy that Washington has pursued against its other adversaries (namely Iran, North Korea, and to a lesser extent, Venezuela) for many years.

The 150-page report assumes that the Power of Siberia 2 project will probably be built eventually, increasing Russia’s export capacity to China by another 50 bcm. But even in that case, Gazprom won’t be out of the woods: first of all, the figure of 50 bcm isn’t very big when compared to the volumes that the Russian group was exporting to Europe before the war.

Furthermore, it’s by no means certain that Beijing will pledge to buy 50 bcm. Finally, everyone knows that the Chinese will probably negotiate very competitive prices from Gazprom for their future gas imports via Power of Siberia 2. As a result, Gazprom can’t expect this gas pipeline project to earn sky-high profits. Furthermore, the study commissioned by the Russian group expects Russian LNG exports (which would mainly benefit Novatek) to lie somewhere between 99 and 126 bcm in 2035, as compared to 41 bcm in 2020.

This sharp increase is certainly good news for the finances of the Russian government (and of course for Novatek), but not for Gazprom, which even in the best-case scenario would have only a minority slice of this pie. In the end, LNG will probably account for half of Russia’s natural gas exports by 2035. Unsurprisingly, the report’s authors believe that the Russian government will probably adopt a pragmatic stance, supporting and largely favoring its LNG sector rather than Gazprom and its gas pipelines.

Archived version

- Bad developments for Gazprom are predicted even in optimistic scenarios. The study authors expect Gazprom’s natural gas exports to Europe to continue at an annual rate of 50 to 75 bcm until 2035. As the Europeans intend to reduce their imports of Russian pipeline gas to zero by 2027, this premise may seem unrealistic.

- What’s more, Gazprom can’t really hope to pivot towards LNG as many assume, according to the report: it doesn’t have the skills and technologies required to carry out large-scale projects in that area, especially in a very difficult environment marked by US sanctions.

- Chinese market will only be able to compensate for the major loss of income from the European market (compared to the period before 2022 and the war in Ukraine) with great difficulty. In addition, Moscow's talks with Beijing about the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline are moving forward only slowly makinv an agreement in 2024 unlikely.--

Bad news is piling up for Gazprom. Already hit hard by a historic loss in 2023, the Russian company is also facing Chinese intransigence: talks between Moscow and Beijing about the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project are moving forward only with great difficulty, and a firm and final agreement this year looks unlikely at this stage. More recently, on June 12, it was revealed that the company’s gas production had fallen sharply last year to 359 bcm, as compared to 413 bcm in 2022 and 515 bcm in 2021. Gazprom’s only consolation is the fact that its total production (both oil and gas) rose by 6.6% last year to 72.4 MMtoe.

Above all, a recently published report commissioned by Gazprom’s management has poured cold water on the Russian group’s hopes for possible improvement within the next few years.

According to the 150-page document, the entire decade of the 2020s promises to be difficult for Gazprom. Yet the report’s authors haven’t adopted any catastrophic assumptions: they expect Gazprom’s natural gas exports to Europe to continue at an annual rate of 50 to 75 bcm until 2035.

As the Europeans intend to reduce their imports of Russian pipeline gas to zero by 2027, this premise may seem unrealistic.

But to continue exporting natural gas discreetly to the EU, the Russians are planning to rely on Turkey (which dreams of becoming a gas hub for the entire region). Gas transiting through Turkey would officially no longer be Russian but Turkish, or of indeterminate origin (Ankara could facilitate this system by importing gas from other countries, especially in the form of LNG). While such a situation hasn‘t materialized yet, this hypothesis isn’t totally far-fetched. And there’s even more good news for Gazprom: its exports to China (via the Power of Siberia 1 gas pipeline) will continue to grow, and the plan to supply the country via a new gas pipeline (Power of Siberia 2) is officially still on the table. So the export market (which is far more lucrative than the domestic market) isn’t a dead loss, mainly thanks to China.

However, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago, experts studying Gazprom’s “case” have run their calculations and come to the obvious conclusion: the Chinese market will only be able to compensate for the major loss of income from the European market (compared to the period before 2022 and the war in Ukraine) with great difficulty. The report mainly focuses on the most pessimistic forecasts, starting with Gazprom’s market share of Russian gas exports, which can be expected to decline substantially in favor of LNG, and therefore of Novatek, which is (and will remain) the main player in this area.

What’s more, Gazprom can’t really hope to pivot towards LNG: it doesn’t have the skills and technologies required to carry out large-scale projects in that area, especially in a very difficult environment marked by US sanctions (although Novatek is well positioned technologically, its Arctic LNG 2 project, which the United States is trying to torpedo, is in difficulty).

The report commissioned by Gazprom is based on the assumption that US sanctions against Russia are set to last, in line with the policy that Washington has pursued against its other adversaries (namely Iran, North Korea, and to a lesser extent, Venezuela) for many years.

The 150-page report assumes that the Power of Siberia 2 project will probably be built eventually, increasing Russia’s export capacity to China by another 50 bcm. But even in that case, Gazprom won’t be out of the woods: first of all, the figure of 50 bcm isn’t very big when compared to the volumes that the Russian group was exporting to Europe before the war.

Furthermore, it’s by no means certain that Beijing will pledge to buy 50 bcm. Finally, everyone knows that the Chinese will probably negotiate very competitive prices from Gazprom for their future gas imports via Power of Siberia 2. As a result, Gazprom can’t expect this gas pipeline project to earn sky-high profits. Furthermore, the study commissioned by the Russian group expects Russian LNG exports (which would mainly benefit Novatek) to lie somewhere between 99 and 126 bcm in 2035, as compared to 41 bcm in 2020.

This sharp increase is certainly good news for the finances of the Russian government (and of course for Novatek), but not for Gazprom, which even in the best-case scenario would have only a minority slice of this pie. In the end, LNG will probably account for half of Russia’s natural gas exports by 2035. Unsurprisingly, the report’s authors believe that the Russian government will probably adopt a pragmatic stance, supporting and largely favoring its LNG sector rather than Gazprom and its gas pipelines.

Archived version

- Bad developments for Gazprom are predicted even in optimistic scenarios. The study authors expect Gazprom’s natural gas exports to Europe to continue at an annual rate of 50 to 75 bcm until 2035. As the Europeans intend to reduce their imports of Russian pipeline gas to zero by 2027, this premise may seem unrealistic.

- What’s more, Gazprom can’t really hope to pivot towards LNG as many assume, according to the report: it doesn’t have the skills and technologies required to carry out large-scale projects in that area, especially in a very difficult environment marked by US sanctions.

- Chinese market will only be able to compensate for the major loss of income from the European market (compared to the period before 2022 and the war in Ukraine) with great difficulty. In addition, Moscow's talks with Beijing about the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline are moving forward only slowly makinv an agreement in 2024 unlikely.--

Bad news is piling up for Gazprom. Already hit hard by a historic loss in 2023, the Russian company is also facing Chinese intransigence: talks between Moscow and Beijing about the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project are moving forward only with great difficulty, and a firm and final agreement this year looks unlikely at this stage. More recently, on June 12, it was revealed that the company’s gas production had fallen sharply last year to 359 bcm, as compared to 413 bcm in 2022 and 515 bcm in 2021. Gazprom’s only consolation is the fact that its total production (both oil and gas) rose by 6.6% last year to 72.4 MMtoe.

Above all, a recently published report commissioned by Gazprom’s management has poured cold water on the Russian group’s hopes for possible improvement within the next few years.

According to the 150-page document, the entire decade of the 2020s promises to be difficult for Gazprom. Yet the report’s authors haven’t adopted any catastrophic assumptions: they expect Gazprom’s natural gas exports to Europe to continue at an annual rate of 50 to 75 bcm until 2035.

As the Europeans intend to reduce their imports of Russian pipeline gas to zero by 2027, this premise may seem unrealistic.

But to continue exporting natural gas discreetly to the EU, the Russians are planning to rely on Turkey (which dreams of becoming a gas hub for the entire region). Gas transiting through Turkey would officially no longer be Russian but Turkish, or of indeterminate origin (Ankara could facilitate this system by importing gas from other countries, especially in the form of LNG). While such a situation hasn‘t materialized yet, this hypothesis isn’t totally far-fetched. And there’s even more good news for Gazprom: its exports to China (via the Power of Siberia 1 gas pipeline) will continue to grow, and the plan to supply the country via a new gas pipeline (Power of Siberia 2) is officially still on the table. So the export market (which is far more lucrative than the domestic market) isn’t a dead loss, mainly thanks to China.

However, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago, experts studying Gazprom’s “case” have run their calculations and come to the obvious conclusion: the Chinese market will only be able to compensate for the major loss of income from the European market (compared to the period before 2022 and the war in Ukraine) with great difficulty. The report mainly focuses on the most pessimistic forecasts, starting with Gazprom’s market share of Russian gas exports, which can be expected to decline substantially in favor of LNG, and therefore of Novatek, which is (and will remain) the main player in this area.

What’s more, Gazprom can’t really hope to pivot towards LNG: it doesn’t have the skills and technologies required to carry out large-scale projects in that area, especially in a very difficult environment marked by US sanctions (although Novatek is well positioned technologically, its Arctic LNG 2 project, which the United States is trying to torpedo, is in difficulty).

The report commissioned by Gazprom is based on the assumption that US sanctions against Russia are set to last, in line with the policy that Washington has pursued against its other adversaries (namely Iran, North Korea, and to a lesser extent, Venezuela) for many years.

The 150-page report assumes that the Power of Siberia 2 project will probably be built eventually, increasing Russia’s export capacity to China by another 50 bcm. But even in that case, Gazprom won’t be out of the woods: first of all, the figure of 50 bcm isn’t very big when compared to the volumes that the Russian group was exporting to Europe before the war.

Furthermore, it’s by no means certain that Beijing will pledge to buy 50 bcm. Finally, everyone knows that the Chinese will probably negotiate very competitive prices from Gazprom for their future gas imports via Power of Siberia 2. As a result, Gazprom can’t expect this gas pipeline project to earn sky-high profits. Furthermore, the study commissioned by the Russian group expects Russian LNG exports (which would mainly benefit Novatek) to lie somewhere between 99 and 126 bcm in 2035, as compared to 41 bcm in 2020.

This sharp increase is certainly good news for the finances of the Russian government (and of course for Novatek), but not for Gazprom, which even in the best-case scenario would have only a minority slice of this pie. In the end, LNG will probably account for half of Russia’s natural gas exports by 2035. Unsurprisingly, the report’s authors believe that the Russian government will probably adopt a pragmatic stance, supporting and largely favoring its LNG sector rather than Gazprom and its gas pipelines.

In China will sich Robert Habeck für bessere Wirtschaftsbeziehungen mit Peking starkmachen. Der Vizekanzler nimmt dabei kein Blatt vor den Mund, vor allem Chinas Verhältnis zu Russland ist der Bundesregierung ein Dorn im Auge. Auch bei Themen wie Autozöllen und CO2-Emissionen knirscht es.

Habeck pocht zudem auf Reziprozität: Europäische Unternehmen sollten in China die gleichen Möglichkeiten haben wie chinesische Firmen in Europa. Tatsächlich hat sich diese Ungleichbehandlung in den vergangenen Jahren aber deutlich vergrößert.

Bundeswirtschaftsminister Robert Habeck hat zum Auftakt seiner Regierungsgespräche in Peking deutliche Kritik an der Unterstützung des russischen Angriffskrieges sowie an chinesischen Subventionspraktiken geübt. "Es ist wichtig auch für China, zu verstehen, China, das ja Russland in diesem Krieg mit unterstützt, dass es die deutschen und europäischen Sicherheitsinteressen jetzt schon sind, die direkt berührt sind durch diesen Krieg", sagte Habeck während eines Treffens mit dem Vorsitzenden der Staatlichen Entwicklungs- und Reformkommission (NDRC), Zheng Shanjie. "Unser direktes Verhältnis ist jetzt schon negativ beeinflusst", so Habeck.

Die NDRC ist eine höchst einflussreiche Regierungsbehörde, die die soziale und wirtschaftliche Entwicklung Chinas vorgibt. Zheng und Habeck hatten sich zunächst zu zweit ausgetauscht, bevor sie presse-öffentlich im Rahmen eines neu aufgesetzten Klimadialogs beider Staaten miteinander redeten. Der chinesische Gastgeber ging in seiner Eröffnungsrede nicht auf die europäischen Vorwürfe an Chinas direkter Unterstützung des russischen Angriffskrieges auf die Ukraine ein.

Zheng kritisierte seinerseits die von der EU-Kommission angekündigten Sonderzölle auf chinesische Elektroautos scharf. "Ich denke, dass diese Aussage absurd ist", sagte er über den Vorwurf, China subventioniere massiv die nach Europa exportierten Elektroautos. "Strafzölle" nannte Zheng die von Brüssel als Ausgleichszölle bezeichneten Sondertarife. "Eine solche Vorgehensweise ist nicht akzeptabel", sagte Zheng. Zölle würden einer "langfristigen, gesunden Entwicklung der Automobilindustrie in Europa schaden", warnte Zheng.

Anders als Habeck hatte der Kommissionsvorsitzende auch viele freundliche Worte für seinen Gast. Peking habe "wahrgenommen, dass die deutsche Seite diese Vorgehensweise verneint", sagte Zheng über die eigentlich ablehnende Haltung der Bundesregierung gegenüber Subventionen. "Das bewundern wir."

Habeck: Zölle keine Strafe, sondern Ausgleich

Habeck widersprach dieser Darstellung und stellte sich hinter das Vorgehen der EU-Kommission. Er hatte im Vorfeld mehrfach betont, dass er zwar nicht für die EU-Kommission mit China verhandeln könne. Allerdings hatte sich der Bundeswirtschaftsminister mit Handelskommissar Valdis Dombrovskis vor seinem Abflug nach China abgestimmt.

Peking müsse "verstehen, dass es sich nicht um Strafzölle handelt", wie sie andere Nationen gegen chinesische Produkte verhängt haben, erwiderte Habeck in seiner Ansprache. Es gehe um einen "Ausgleich gewährter Vorteile". Damit widersprach der Gast aus Berlin dem chinesischen Gastgeber in der Frage, ob es die staatlichen Subventionen für Elektroautohersteller überhaupt gibt.

Habeck warnte zudem ganz grundsätzlich vor der "falschen und gefährlichen Tendenz" zu mehr Protektionismus. Der Grünen-Politiker und Vizekanzler ist mit einer Delegation von Unternehmensvertretern aus dem deutschen Mittelstand angereist. Viele von ihnen beklagen einen immer schwierigeren Marktzugang in China. Die Bundesregierung pocht zudem auf Reziprozität: Europäische Unternehmen sollten in China die gleichen Möglichkeiten haben wie chinesische Firmen in Europa. Tatsächlich hat sich diese Ungleichbehandlung in den vergangenen Jahren aber deutlich vergrößert.

Offen vorgetragene Uneinigkeit bestand auch bei der Frage nach dem Abbau von CO2-Emissionen durch China. Offenbar in Reaktion auf zuvor geäußerte deutsche Kritik an den vielen neu entstehenden Kohlekraftwerke in China, sagte Zheng: "Ich möchte beteuern, dass der Neuzubau ausschließlich dem Lastmanagement dient." Demnach sollen die Kohlekraftwerke lediglich aushelfen, wenn Erneuerbare Energien mangels Wind und Sonne keinen Strom produzieren können. "Der Abbau von Kohle kann nicht über Nacht erfolgen", sagte Zheng unter Verweis auf eine sichere Energieversorgung und auf "unterschiedliche Entwicklungsstadien" Deutschlands und China.

Der Bundeswirtschaftsminister zog die Notwendigkeit der Kohlekraftwerke in Zweifel. Es sei "ineffizient" gleichzeitig Erneuerbare Energien und fossile Energieträger zu fördern. Habeck sagte: "Deutschland und Europa müssen sich ihrer historischen Verantwortung für Emissionen, die in der Vergangenheit produziert wurden, stellen." Es sei ihm wichtig, dass die chinesische Seite wisse, "dass wir uns da nicht aus dem Staub machen wollen", so Habeck. "Allerdings kann man sich hinter der historischen Verantwortung von anderen auch nicht verstecken oder zurücknehmen." Die CO2-Emissionen müssten "auch in China möglichst schnell gesenkt werden."