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By many metrics and anecdotal evidence it already is.
It's hard to argue given their trajectory
The reality is that if China stops supplying the world with stuff, we're fucked
The entire world relies on China's cheap and available "stuff", and it encompasses everything
They have economic power, they have soft political power and have been pumping money into Africa and the pacific
They have harder political power in Asia
The have enormous military power
They have abundant resources
They already have the world by the balls, but it's unpleasant for most people to acknowledge it
Honestly modern China in my lifetime has been a more benevolent world player than the US by orders of magnitude. Not perfect, obviously, but at least they haven’t been starting wars or electing fascists. I’m excited for this shift.
The biggest issue I have with China is their suppression of freedom of speech.
Mostly agree, but;
The reality is that if China stops supplying the world with stuff, we're fucked
The entire world relies on China's cheap and available "stuff", and it encompasses everything
I think is more their engineering expertise than cheap manufacturing. Cheap manufacturing can be easily moved to other countries as is already happening in India and Vietnam among others. However China has big expertise in high tech/large scale manufacturing in many areas like electronics, batteries, EV’s,… that doesn’t move easily.
However for those engineering domains China also strongly relies on other countries. In our world you can’t do everything alone.
The have enormous military power
They haven’t fought a war in 4 decades though.
Global power doesn't tend to be a peaceful transition though. If China does make a play to become the dominant force by then, it's bad news for everyone living right now.
There are benefits China has that will go away as they transition, which could also cause them to stumble. No longer being considered a developing nation, any poverty will be 100% on them to fix, international agreements will expect them to contribute instead of receiving, emissions will be more heavily scrutinized. Other countries will not be a tolerant about the rampant IP theft and extreme protectionism of their domestic markets.
No longer being considered a developing nation, any poverty will be 100% on them to fix, international agreements will expect them to contribute instead of receiving,
I could be wrong, but it seems like they are already to this point.
emissions will be more heavily scrutinized. Other countries will not be a tolerant about the rampant IP theft and extreme protectionism of their domestic markets.
I think this falls into the realm of "what are they going to do about" the only power block that cares about those ip's are the na-eu group, which after the play for global dominance will become a rounding error to them. The emissions may bite them, but it won't be from other nations, I have no doubt they'll keep polluting until the problems actually manifest, basically every unchecked government in history doesn't play proactively when it comes to environmental issues.
China is slowly transitioning from a developing country, but it's a slow process as new agreements are signed and old ones expire.
NA and EU wouldn't be a rounding error, China wouldn't magically be more powerful than everyone else combined. The EU can already make the US and it's companies make concessions, that wouldn't change with China replacing the US.
As far as emissions China already hit the point they couldn't ignore it. That's why they are rolling out so much solar and nuclear, the Internet being flooded with pictures of absurdly bad smog already forced that issue.
Time to learn Mandarin
They're not spilling treasure fighting another country's wars.