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The original was posted on /r/nostupidquestions by /u/Maleficent-Shock7242 on 2023-09-15 12:54:58.
A quick google search shows that somewhere around 5-7 percent of trials end in a hung jury. Why is this so rare?
I feel like in today’s world getting 2 randomly selected people to agree on something is a flip of the coin. So getting 12 people to agree on something would be like flipping a coin eleven times and getting heads every time, roughly a .04% chance. So by that logic 99.96% of trials should end in a hung jury.
Obviously this percentage would change a little when you factor in that a certain amount of cases have so much evidence on one side or the other that it’s almost impossible for there not to be a unanimous decision, but to get from a 99.96% chance all the way down to the 5-7% hung jury rate would mean an astronomical amount of cases would need to be like that. I don’t know the exact math but it seems like well over 90% of all cases would have to be that way to get that drastic of a decrease.
This seems illogical because if it was that obvious given the evidence then the defense or prosecution should realize this beforehand and take a plea deal over going to a trial they know they’ll lose.
I know my math might not be completely accurate, and I’m not accounting for every variable, but it still seems like the hung jury rate should be way higher than 6.2%.