I get the desire to strengthen the eastern edge of NATO countries like Poland and Lithuania... But I think Russia/Wagner have bigger priorities at the moment. I don't think they went to Belarus just to ignore Ukraine and launch a hopeless attack on the entirety of NATO.
this post was submitted on 28 Jun 2023
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No, they went to Belarus so that Lukashenka can feel more secure in his tyranny there and therefore spare more resources for supporting the attempt by Russia to conquer Ukraine
Yeah i doubt priggy gives a fuck about anyone but himself. It's more likely that they are positioning in Belarus to zerg kyiv. Putin's last try at taking the capital.
Which went so well last time.
When you look at the terrain and roads that lead into Ukraine from Belarus it's quite clear why their shitty attack failed. Two lane everything, which becomes one lane when a tank's on it, everything files right past ditches and outcroppings and through forests and towns that all provide some level of cover and/or shelter... it's a fucking nightmare run you'd have to be an absolute idiot to try. looks at Putin
Thing is, given the ideological bent of the Wagner forces and the apparent lack of discipline in the Russian forces, there is a reasonable concern that there would be unofficial violence on the borders.
Unofficial Violence is my new band name
What if it was all a plot to move nuclear weapons to Belarus?
Prigozhin declares mutiny and starts marching towards Moscow. Enroute, they pickup the goods.
Then they declare "we're going to exile in Belarus" and use the exiting convoy as cover/protection.
They've already moved nuclear weapons to Belarus with their regular forces.
This is fucking stupid.
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They already moved nukes to Belarus months ago.
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They're not going to fake a fucking mutiny when they could just MOVE THE FUCKING NUKES like they have done and will do again.
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If all they wanted to do was move troops or gear they could have just MOVED THE FUCKING TROOPS AND GEAR like they have done and will do again.
And even if they wanted to put on a show, for whatever reason, they wouldn't take it so far that they shoot down their own planes.
No kidding. That's what makes this even more fucking stupiderer. "Hey, I know, let's shoot down several planes and helicopters so we can move troops from territory we control to territory we control in the most obvious and nonsensical way possible! There's nothing wrong with this plan!"
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