I want to hear the opinion of the octopus that predicted the world cup results first
this post was submitted on 01 Jul 2024
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Died. Now they are using a turtle but he always votes Nadar
Let him cook, it'll get there eventually
Holy shit this was funny!
I hear there’s a groundhog in Pennsylvania that’s a pretty good meteorologist.
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Meaningless considering he still hasn't predicted whether or not Biden will win this election. He says he needs another month lol.
Edit: As a bonus he can't even apply his own rubric to a new potential candidate. So the real questions are: How could he possibly know they'd be worse, and why the fuck is he even saying anything?
Not meaningless, his prediction system always gives the incumbent an advantage over anyone else in his party.
And yet, he hasn't predicted yet because there are many other "keys". Case-in-point: see how incumbency worked for Trump.
Also should be noted other reputable science-based algorithm designers like Nate Silver advises Biden to step down.
Finally, the unprecedented nature of an open convention also means this guy has nothing to go on for extrapolation.
Also should be noted other reputable science-based algorithm designers like Nate Silver advises Biden to step down.
Nate's algorithm is just a poll of polls. And his reasoning is incredibly short term and superficial.
Nate wasn't suggesting Biden drop out back in January when other candidates could run to replace him. He's only saying it now, because Biden's polling is at an all time low.
If Biden recovers (likely, as the memory of the debate fades behind other current events) the pundits will start singing a different tune quickly enough.
Nate's algorithm is just a poll of polls. And his reasoning is incredibly short term and superficial.
That isn't true. Far more involved than that. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-presidential-forecast-works-and-whats-different-because-of-covid-19/
Nate went further post-debate performance, knowing where Biden stands in a variety of polling and that this was the worst debate perhaps in the history of debates they was a make-or-break moment for the campaign desperate to reach a widespread audience. Biden capturing the attention of 50 million people will not happen again between now and November. For many Americans this debate, which Republicans will never let anyone forget, will be the last thing they remember.
More importantly there will be no major positive event that overrides it. That event, if it existed, already passed with Trump's conviction.
Nobody can provide me a single data-point where Biden isn't performing significantly worse than his 2020 race where he won by merely 40,000 votes across 3 battleground states. Time to face hard truths.
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i bet you i could predict it with 100% accuracy if you give me another 4 months
Yeah you say that and should be right but I'm more worried about January than I am November...
First, he didn't get 2000 wrong, Gore won.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jan/29/uselections2000.usa
2nd though... 2024 is a lose/lose no matter what the Democrats do at this point.
A weakened Biden can't win.
A replaced Biden changes the dialog to "See! Even the Democrats know they can't do the job!" which is a losing strategy.
The only way to pull out a win would be for Biden to die in office and have his successor get the sympathy vote, a la Johnson in '64.
I disagree 100%. Having Biden step down and put his support behind a solid candidate many can agree on (not just corporate Dems) while saying he has given it thought and realizes it is best for Democrats & America means not only does he get to do so gracefully, but people can emphasize with honesty and not having and old man spend his final days being abused by those around him.
The problem is he would never put his support behind anyone other than a corporate approved neoliberal. If he does step down, the person he picks is 110% going to be contentious among base Democrat voters especially among the younger voters. We're not getting Bernie or AOC, full stop.
I also think Democrats are the worst about their purity tests and will turn their noses up at anyone for the slightest reason. When put into that perspective, I'll take the chances with Biden.
If he stepped down and endorsed Bernie, I have ould say there is a chance. Short of that, you guys are heading for a second Trump.
The biggest argument the Republicans have against Biden is his age.
Bernie is older than Biden.
It doesn't matter at this point that he'd be better. The only way to combat the "too old" argument is to nominate someone younger than Trump. And there's plenty of people younger than 78.
Bernie also has a heart condition and I say this with all love for Bernie, but also as someone who has had two heart attacks... you don't want someone with weakened health in that job.
Physically, there are days when I struggle with "walk down a hallway". Forget doing a job.
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And there’s plenty of people younger than 78.
Which one's can beat Trump in the election?
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I wish Jon Stewart would accept endorsement. Bernie isn't the only candidate though. Trump didn't start out cause he was well liked. He got popularity cause he was polarizing. He gets infinite free media coverage. The Democrats could pick AOC and the right would have a meltdown. She'd get consistent media coverage. She is good looking and would do good for pressers.
Trump is (or was) a billionaire, a TV celebrity, who shat on his GOP rivals during the 2016 primaries and was content enough to threaten to run as an independent and allow Clinton to win if he wasn't nominated. That he regarded politicians from both parties with contempt was part of the attraction.
If Canada can't elect a female PM or have a Liberal (or NDP) female PM, what makes you think that the US will elect a woman as President?
While a lot would like her more leftist positions—she might have to reiterate that the US should stop funding Israel and that what's happening in Gaza is a genocide, and her view on a 100% tariff on EVs—the GOP and party centrists would have a field day.
But yeah, it might be a good thing.
content enough to threaten to run as an independent and allow Clinton to win if he wasn't nominated. That he regarded politicians from both parties with contempt was part of the attraction.
Okay guys, I know this sounds crazy but, Jon Stewart could play one from the Trump playbook. AOC flips her position on Gaza, Jon is a Jew against the genocide, locking in the leftists. All the gen z-ers and millennials are in from the get go because perfect nostalgia points, and then Biden steps down and endorses him locking up the dem votes! What a life that would be. A d*sney ending!
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There's still plenty of room for a senile fumbling corporate puppet to be retained in office, assuming mass media and the party continue to back him.
But quite a bit of mass media is owned and operated by ultra-conservative ghouls and wanna-be fascist demagogues.
The real fear is that they cash out Biden and start running an endless train of hit pieces, like they did against Hilary and Bernie. Biden's senility seems to be acceptable to majority of Dem voters, on the grounds that "Trump is worse". It's all the low info Indies who are yet to be swayed. And they're only interested in the news cycle a couple weeks outside the general election.
Hey math people, if they all selected 1 of the 2 main candidates for every election, and they all selected different candidates, how many historians would it take to cover every combination for 10 years? (bonus points to see how many would take before guaranteeing someone could get 9/10)
1024 historians assuming they all pick different combinations at random. Probability of randomly guessing at least 9 of 10 goes up to 1.075% or 93 historians (on average to get one person with 9/10 predictions right) or like the other commenter mentioned 1024-11= 1013 to guarantee a 9/10 but that's a little overkill.
Where does the 93 come from? The percentage is almost correct, but it should be 11 (1.074%)
93 for 1/0.01075
Note that many of those elections were easier to guess than just flipping a coin, so you don't really need to cover every potential combination to cover like 95% of the likely outcomes.
It's Biden all the way. Fortunately unfortunately.
Drop him for who?
They'll not nominate a Justice Democrat as that won't make corporate donors money. I don't see how anyone or anything could recover the resultant shitshow except the Justice Democrat platform.
Kamala seemingly the only one with some name recognition, is the same vague bullshit with some identity politics, which would be inadequate.
Who else is there?
Would love Pete Buttigieg over Newsom but honestly will take anyone that can beat Trump
Anyone they pick from now will get name recognition no matter who they are from media presence alone. Changing candidates at this stage will be significant news.
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the only way another candidate can be successful is if Biden himself drops out and endorses (and indeed continues to campaign for) them.
But Biden's ego won't allow that, so the party's choices are either to forcibly remove him and split the vote or take the flaming, burning ship down into the ocean.
hope people can swim.
the only way another candidate can be successful is if Biden himself drops out and endorses (and indeed continues to campaign for) them.
And he had 4 years to decide on and build up a successor, but chose to not do so. And neither did the democratic party.
His age and the related issues can't be a surprise to anyone, so i really don't see why there should be a sudden change in direction.
I'm calling it. 9 of 11. That's a good number for America.
Thats some broken Windows on the World there.
I'd say that was a lot of broken windows.
Will this election be a tales from the crypt?
Duh
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