We are definitely not in the 'loss of hegemony' phase yet. We are in the 'decline' phase, but because of nukes and geography, that decline phase may last another century before it actually affects the ruling class and their ideology to any degree.
this post was submitted on 15 Aug 2023
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chapotraphouse
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Unless kaboom
Kaboom is incredibly unlikely, and as Americans we really need to be hyper aware of our tendency towards apocalyptic thinking.
Idk maybe I hope you are correct
Not sure I'd say the US has "lost" hegemony quite yet, more that it is being contested. The cultural export of the US has encircled the globe and continues to dominate. The USD is still the petrol dollar, and the US gov hasn't closed any long term occupation military bases designed to support forward occupations. The former I think will be the nail in the coffin, and the latter will be the beginning of the decline. Wouldn't be surprised if the latter signal is actually started by corporate influence in order to increase shareholder dividends - capitalism has always been a snake eating it's own ass.
I've heard the take that Biden is currently in the process of Hadrian's walling up the american empire as we've hit our terminal growth point and are now contracting. Feels convincing to me
Well... He's not doing a very good job of it lol. Pulling out of Afghanistan was probably the best move of his whole tenure.
This seems not to be too strict about hegemony. For example, they place the UK losing hegemony in 1890, but it still had a vast colonial empire and the strongest currency until WW2. By that logic, it's not so weird to say America has lost hegemony even though its control over money and the world is still very strong.
Yes. The roman empire entered terminal decline 200 years before it formally fell. The british empire was a powerful imperial bloc right up to the world wars and was only stepped down as a major player by the US & USSR during the Suez Canal crisis. It's only just now post-covid that they're truly entering a state of decay after death
These massive institutions of state power have massive amounts of inertia and take a long time to break down. The american empire could be in decline for several more generations before a new hegemon comes into being
2004 seems a bit early for loss of hegemony. Honestly, if the loss of hegemony has already happened, then it would have been in 2022 with the failure of the SWIFT sanctions to cut off Russia from the global economy.
Me, an intellectual, pointing to a date within my lifetime: "This is it! This is where things will change going forward!"
My ancestor, pointing to a date within their own lifetime: "Haha, you dumbass."
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Climate change makes a mockery of all our political machinations.
I dont think decline is over yet tbh.