this post was submitted on 14 Oct 2023
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Україна Ukraine
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Could be a small provocation or test to see what they get away with, a show of force ("remember, you're vulnerable") and as you said, plausible deniability.
They can't do any damage that would seriously disrupt the EU without making it extremely likely that Article 5 would be invoked and Russia would now be fighting an open kinetic war on many fronts.