this post was submitted on 26 Jun 2023
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while pretending like this might be fun for you, reality is it's never going to happen. even if CCP falls apart, the state apparatus in mainland China for whatever fills the void would still be stronger than Taiwan. They're like 2 factors of magnitude larger. and that's assuming CCP falls apart - the momentum doesn't seem to be going in that direction
It's like saying Texas will be independent again one day. It's a larp
differences between west germany / east germany v taiwan / china
1 - population
east germany 1989 - Around 16 million
west germany 1989 - Around 62 million
east germany was about 1/4th the size of west germany in terms of population
taiwan current - Around 23 million
china current - Around 1.4 billion
china has about 61x the population of taiwan in terms of population
2 - gdp
east germany 1989 - around $300 billion
west germany 1989 - around $1.5 trillion
east germany was about 1/5th the size of west germany in terms of GDP
taiwan current - around $760 billion
china current - around $17 trillion
china has about 13x the size of taiwan's GDP
3 - time period separated
germany - around 41 years
china - around 74 years
china and taiwan have been separated nearly double the time as germany - with no reunification in sight
So in the case of East Germany vs West Germany, the West was significantly larger both in terms of GDP and population. West Germany was about 4x~5x bigger and was able to incorporate the East because they were bigger. In addition, they were separated for a shorter amount of time.. the longer it goes on the more complicated it gets.
If we look at Taiwan and China, Chinese economy and population is somewhere between 1 and 2 factors of magnitude larger. Taiwan simply does not have the capacity to incorporate China. The state apparatus in mainland China is absolutely massive - it's hard to fathom how many bureaucrats are needed to effectively run that country.
Having said all that, looking at the future of China, I sincerely doubt there will be a democratic revolution. The approval rating for the CCP is very high (much higher than democratic countries in the West). China has historically been authoritarian. They have taken the capitalist model and effectively used it in an authoritarian state. It works well for them and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
Of course, nobody can tell the future. With the accelerating pace of technology and the inevitable climate change and who knows how much radical change there will be in the coming decades.
there are 10 million bureaucrats in china
that's already half of the population of taiwan alone. the city of shanghai has a bigger population than taiwan
yes, it is. it's logistically impossible. i tried to elaborate on why because to hold a belief like you do someone must not know all of the obvious facts
it's very possible. it's happening right now in Hong Kong. China just takes over and slowly integrates it and removes the democracy bit by bit. I think it's so strange how you make a comment pretending reality is some way when it isn't. I get it - I support Taiwan too. I prefer Democracies over authoritarian regimes. But let's be real here
independent organizations have done studies in China. they really do support the CCP. https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/07/long-term-survey-reveals-chinese-government-satisfaction/
it's sort of a side effect from the "heavenly mandate" idea in China. they've always had authoritarian leaders. as long as the economy is doing well the people tolerate anything. and china has been growing fast for decades now
i think you need to disconnect your ideology from the analysis. you will never see beyond your nose if you take ideology too seriously in these types of affairs
there have been many smarter people than you or I doing analysis of CCP approval rating and it's always much much higher than our democratic countries in the west. read the article i sent you from harvard. look up more on google. or put your fingers in your ears, close your eyes, whatever. again - doesn't change the reality of the situation
people are pleased that their economic position is much better than their grandparents. and as long as economic growth keeps happening, that will remain true.
i don't like to put my head in the sand and pretend like ideology trumps reality. no matter how much i prefer a free open society i have read the research. i have seen the news. i know CCP has higher approval rating than any democratic country. this isn't one or two studies. this is the consensus for decades.
chinese people are happy with CCP. same thing with Putin in Russia. just because a country is authoritarian and brutal does not mean they cannot have high approval ratings. the difference is they are contingent on a few very important things
china is economic growth. putin is not appearing weak - making russians feel strong. if CCP cannot guarantee that economic growth for too long a period of time, it will fall apart. they lose the "heavenly mandate"
no it's "obsurd" that you totally ignore the opinions of 1.4 billion people in China. read some chinese history. the emperor had the mandate and everything ran smoothly or he didn't and there was civil war.
government legitimacy means different things for different forms of government
having said all that, you are not truly wanting to discuss geopolitics here. you want to larp and play a game of alt-history and that's fine i guess but at least put a disclaimer