this post was submitted on 14 Jul 2025
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Image is from this article, of a Chilean copper quarry.

Title is a reference to Trump's social media post about copper, which was, as usual, mostly deranged.


Trying to follow Trump's administration is pretty difficult, but as of right now, he is threatening 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU starting on August 1st, as well as new tariff announcements on a bunch of other countries (including, bizarrely, a 50% tariff on Brazil), and also apparently a 50% tariff on copper, which the US imports half its supply of and is, of course, a very important metal in many applications.

I'm not sure what the plan is to bring back domestic copper production beyond hoping that it just sorta works out, but prominent copper producers, such as Chile and Canada, seem both concerned and confused. Reuters had a line that made me chuckle:

Boric said he was awaiting official communication from the U.S. government, including whether the tariffs would include copper cathodes, and questioned "whether this will actually be implemented or not."

Big mood, Boric.


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https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
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https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
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https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

I see I've upset you.

Frankly I feel this site and others needs a bit of (non-liberal-brained) dissent against the circlejerk so readily adopted in the vein of "oh Russia is going to crush the west, NATO stands no chance, Ukraine is going to be fucked up, Russia will win handily and is just going slow as a brilliant strategy of grinding down which has no downsides even as the west is scrambling to build capacity because they can't do that despite recent history showing they can" and that plus the "any month now their lines will break" which I have been seeing from hopium parties I won't name since the start of this conflict with persistent predictions that oh 2024 would be the end, the wrap-up, and now it's 2025. Or the China hoperism which gets to the point of blindness in seeing any weaknesses or problems in the grand chessboard they're going to be playing on given the plays the US/NATO is making. I'm still broadly hopeful but the chessboard for China and our side is definitely not as rosy as it was only 3 years ago. Some sobriety is helpful.

Sometimes I just post kind of thoughts, not all are terribly well thought out as in I've sat down and really thought about it. In fact I welcome reasoned or well sourced rebuttals as those help me sharpen my own thinking and I think that kind of interaction leads to real growth.

As someone else said if you want an echo-chamber of nothing but positive spin and propaganda this site isn't that.

Anyways I just noticed the old mega is locked so I'm going to post a reply I wrote up to someone else who objected to my post there before noticing the post was locked.

spoiler

Russian intelligence and air power is still very inadequate (in absolute terms and compared to NATO) as they're unable to both locate the factories for Ukrainian production of drones/weapons and/or deliver the high power munitions necessary to put them out of commission such as glide bombs because of inability to suppress Ukrainian air defenses properly

Sounds like you uncritically swallowed the NATO propaganda line and actually believe the ridiculous 95% interception rate claims from the AFU. Russia is still attacking with huge drone swarms and missile barrages, and successfully striking positions deep within Ukraine.

Don't read it so have no idea how I could swallow it. I consume next to zero western press beyond headlines and scoff every time I see something about Ukraine in the headline, promptly mentally discarding whatever it is I just read.

I said nothing about interception. Fact is Russia does not have air dominance over Ukraine. Ukraine has a lot of western supplied anti-air assets which make it dangerous or impossible for bombing raids with Russia's limited force of heavy bombers. They hit the front lines where they've softened up the anti-air with glide-bombs sure but they don't strike Kiev with bombers or the middle of the country because they can't get close enough. They're relegated to using very expensive and limited production hypersonics and drone swarms. The latter of which cannot take out hardened targets and can't deliver enough payload to take out large targets (like manufacturing) either and is mostly used for clearing trenches, taking out vehicles, hitting anti-air units in forward operating areas. Russia is not the USSR, Ukraine is still operating F-16s and other fighters deeper within their country as well. Despite Russia bravado about how they'd "burn" Russia has taken out only a portion of those delivered. Frankly this is down to intelligence capabilities.

I notice you didn't even address my point about intelligence which is a real problem because you need intelligence for targeting. Look at the zionists, they have excellent intelligence and were able to assassinate Nasrallah and attempt to kill Iran's leadership because they know exactly where their command bunkers are. The US is part of that and has excellent intelligence. A massive satellite spy network much larger than what Russia runs and more modern with more capabilities to watch more places at once. They also have more funding, more people working on analysis. They have deep penetration via hacking, human-int assets (Russia's CIA network was never rolled up like China's because they used an older system that wasn't compromised and even without that there are so many west-brained, west-loving, liberalism and west as absolute saviors on a shining city on a hill types in Russia that they can get a decent amount of cooperation from that angle alone). And massive signals surveillance of course as well. Most of Russia's big hits on say officer gatherings have been luck, things like some fool posting about it online and Russian intelligence noticing as I don't think Russia is even able to remain embedded via hacking in Ukrainian networks as the NSA is successfully repelling them and maybe Russia is reluctant to burn cyber-weapons on it.