this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2025
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I'm going to be bold. The internal combustion engine car.
There will be a tipping point where nobody wants to maintain the highly intricate manufacturing for them, and they will stop very quickly. Electric motors are the future and the transition is accelerating. We're currently around 20% of new sales and I expect after 60-70% ICEs will just disappear from sale.
Most countries will be raising taxes on fuel even more and in general it will become less available fast: gas stations, mechanics who know how to fix the ICE old timers etc. it will become a hobby thing (like old timers today already). Certain niches will keep ICE way longer (heavy construction vehicles etc) but it will suddenly become quite rare in 20 or 30 years to see a regular old ICE driven by a regular person doing regular things like commuting or so.
For heavy construction vehicles only three main factors need to align: normal replacement schedule, enough capacity for the heaviest day (which is quite predictable in many industries,) and the charging infrastructure.
The last one is a major hurdle and is holding back EVs on all levels already. In the US it is also the least likely to see improvement anytime soon