[...]
Researchers from the Brussels-based Bruegel think tank and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy sought to assess when the European Union and the United Kingdom might be prepared to respond to potential Russian aggression by 2030. Multiple Western intelligence reports suggest that Russia might test Europe’s resolve even earlier.
The think tanks previously concluded in September that it would take the bloc several decades to adequately prepare – and in their latest update, released on Thursday, the researchers found that “the situation today is even more concerning”.
That is partly due to a much-weakened US commitment to European security, following Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
But the researchers also found that Russian industry continues to significantly outproduce European factories, despite substantial increases in investment. Military procurement across the EU remains slow, bureaucratic, and focused on relatively expensive weapons systems.
Russia’s military spending reached €130 billion in 2024, or 7.1% of its GDP. While combined EU and UK expenditures exceed that figure, the study found that Russia’s military purchasing power remains comparable.
To deter – or, if necessary, fight – Russia without relying on US support, European production of various weapon systems “must increase by a factor of around five”, the report states. Air defence systems, in particular, would need to multiply even more to match Russian capabilities.
“Europe thus remains highly vulnerable and dependent on the US,” the report states.
The researchers conducted a detailed analysis of military procurement data from Germany, Poland, the UK, and France to understand broader European trends. They found that production still lags, and the volume of military hardware being acquired “remain low compared to Cold War periods or Russian numbers.”
[...]
The EU’s €800 billion ReArm Europe plan, for instance, “will be too small, if equipment is bought at current high prices,” the authors caution.
Europe as a whole still hasn't gotten the message yet. The message being that if they don't manage to defend the borders, we'll be in for a very long-term conflict with Russia directly. As much as I am principally against military build up and the like, it's the only possible choice if the EU intends to keep its borders intact in the long run.
As you're so keen for war, will you be on the front line sacrificing your life for it? Or will you be leaving that up to others?
This is just scaremongering to normalise the idea of war in people's minds. To push money towards unnecessary military spending instead of healthcare, education, etc.
Russia has less than 140m people. The EU has over 400m.
The EU has a vastly larger economy, more worldwide allies, more advanced technology, blah blah blah.
Russia can't even win in a surprise war against a small neighbour ffs.
@[email protected]
No, there is no alternative as the aggressor here is Russia. It was Russia which started the war, and if the EU isn't willing to upgrade its defense capabilities, Russia will start the wars against other countries. Russia outspends the whole of EU in military built-up, there is much evidence for this as you can also read in this comm in the meantime.
Just to to Ukraine and experience the war yourself to see the alternative.
Addition:
Not long ago Ukrainian heavyweight champion Oleksandr Usyk offered US president Donald Trump the chance to live in his house for a week to experience the reality of the war in Ukraine.
If you think investing in defense is not worthwhile you may call Mr. Usyk, maybe he is willing to extend his offer to you. You can then see yourself what happens in Ukraine every day.
[Edit typo.]
This is blatantly false and it takes a lot of massaging the numbers to reach even parity in spending like the OP article claims (but it uses pre-war PPP figures, which is completely laughable).
Is military spending efficient in the EU? No. Do we spend too much on unreliable US made weapons? Yes!
But Russia is spending a tiny fraction of what the EU+UK does, and its troups are exhausted from a protracted war with Ukraine.
Maybe they will try to poke a sleeping bear to divide us further as a form of asymetric warfare, but in no way (other that nuclear) is Russia an existential threat to Europe right now.
This is just the age old cold war fearmongering back in action. Lots of profits to be made from that...
The EU, and NATO, already invest in defence. It's not like the 1920s where everything has been left to rot. What's changed is the push from 2% to 5% of GDP, by those who are just begging for war.
That's a huge sum of money.
Ukraine is almost alone, they're getting aid from NATO and the EU but they're having to do the dirty work themselves. And they're still holding their own.
Do you honestly believe a war that brings in France, Germany, the UK, (maybe) the USA, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Poland, etc is one that Russia is going to pick? And if they do, have any chance of winning?
Unless China sides with Russia they haven't a chance, and China doesn't seem to have shown any form of intent in that regard. They sell equipment to Russia because there's money to be made, in the same way they sell equipment to NATO countries.
@[email protected]
Oh, no, this is just as China (and Russia) portray things as part of their propaganda. But it's false.
For example, China сuts drone sales to Ukraine and the West but continues supplying Russia.
China is everything but neutral, and it's also not just about money as your comment tries to suggest. The government in Beijing pursues its own agenda (and its own agenda only). It goes far beyond Europe.
According to Chinese state-controlled media outlet South China Morning Post, for example, China's Xi Jinping kicked off his state visit to Russia in May 2025 by thanking Moscow for supporting Taiwan’s reunification with mainland China.
Russia's war in Ukraine and China's aggression against Taiwan are closely linked, at least for China. Beijing wants control over Taiwan (and supposedly over the South China Sea and other neighbouring areas in Asia, including a part of Siberia which is currently Russian territory).
And there are also Chinese mercenaries fighting for Russia, hired by ads on Chinese social media. Unlike any 'pro-Western' content on China's state-controlled internet, these Russian conscription ads aren't get censored.
[Edit typo.]