this post was submitted on 18 Jun 2025
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[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (13 children)

Iraq, after the Gulf War, was never found by the IAEA to be in possession of or active production of uranium in excess of 20% target enrichment. That's a level consistent with civilian-only use.

The IAEA has repeatedly confirmed Iran has enriched uranium to 60% in increasingly large quantities. Iran has also admitted it, and provides nebulous excuses when pressed about it. There is zero modern civilian purpose for that level of enrichment, and it doesn't take much time to refine from 60% to 85% for high yield weapons grade uranium. Days to months, not years.

Assessments have concluded that Iran does not yet have a functional nuclear weapon, but once they do possess one, now your hands are tied. The only winning move is a pre-emptive strike to prevent nuclear proliferation. Talks are meaningless and not in good faith - Iran sees Israel as a mortal enemy that already has nuclear weapons. Like with North Korea, Iran's nuclear proliferation was used as an indefinite negotiating tool and never intended to be off the table. Iran also does not have a plausible defense purpose for nuclear weapons. If they think the US or Israel would wage war to topple the Iranian state, wouldn't those countries have done it already over the past 50 years? Iran's leadership has, over and over, declared their intent to destroy Israel. They provide weapons and support for proxy groups fighting Israel. Who's to say they wouldn't deliver a nuclear device to a proxy group that sneaks it into Tel Aviv and detonates it, then denies responsibility?

Should have dunked on North Korea before they completed their bomb too, but I guess unlike Iran, their regional partner China wasn't already preoccupied losing another war.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 week ago (9 children)

Days to months, not years.

If Iran is days to months away from a nuclear bomb, then for all intents and purposes they already have a nuclear bomb. The fact they don't have a nuclear bomb already despite having 60% enriched uranium for years can only mean that they simply don't want a nuclear bomb.

The only winning move is a pre-emptive strike to prevent nuclear proliferation.

The only winning move is diplomacy to prevent nuclear proliferation, aka JOCPA. I wonder how that went. Also I find claims that Iran is so close to a nuclear bomb very doubtful given that they've been around for literal decades.

[–] [email protected] -2 points 1 week ago (1 children)

they don't want a bomb

Then why the fuck are they enriching uranium beyond what's necessary for energy purposes?

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 week ago

To point to if and when America wants to invade? There's a difference between "yo we can make a nuclear bomb so play nice" and actually making a nuclear bomb. Also because they have literally no reason to not enrich uranium given that they're already sanctioned to hell and back, so they might as well go the potentially nuclear-powered pariah route.

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