this post was submitted on 14 Jun 2025
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[–] [email protected] 71 points 1 week ago (9 children)

“There weren’t any campaigns that had failed after they had achieved 3.5% participation during a peak event,” says Chenoweth – a phenomenon she has called the “3.5% rule”.

Me scatching my head thinking,"10% of Hong Kong protested and still got stomped by China's boot." I suppose it could be argued that it's not the same thing.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (4 children)

I think the research was done prior to that event. It's a bit dated at this point.

Also, it's a bit ambiguous how to count Hong Kong as a semi-autonomous region in China. Should you measure by percentage of Hong Kongers or percentage of Chinese? I might think the latter, since they're subject to the force of that nation.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 week ago (2 children)

I don't think we can accept your argument, because in point in fact Hong Kong was an independent country. Certainly trying to disagree but now we're getting into a definition question, but if that's going to stop us from applying the proposed principle, then we can do that in every situation.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

HK has literally never been independent, it went from being a Qing fishing village to a British concession, to a British overseas territory and then to a PRC special autonomous region.

It came close to full autonomy during the end of British rule and the start of PRC rule (before Xi), but it never has been independent.

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