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Photo-Illustration: Intelligencer; Photos: Getty Images

As early voting begins this weekend in New York City’s mayoral race, new polling shows that the race is likely to come down to two candidates: former governor Andrew Cuomo and Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani.

Politico reports that an internal poll conducted by Data for Progress for New Yorkers for Lower Costs, a super-PAC supporting Mamdani, showed the Queens assemblymember trailing Cuomo by single digits in a ranked-choice simulation. The survey has the former governor winning the election after eight rounds of voting by 51 percent to Mamdani’s 49 percent, the closest a poll has showed the race all year. An internal poll for the Cuomo campaign, meanwhile, showed a different shape to the race. Per Politico, the survey from Expedition Strategies has the former governor winning in the eighth round, but by 56 percent to Mamdani’s 44 percent, a 12 point margin.

One commonality of the two polls is that they both showed the race’s other challengers — like past and current comptrollers Scott Stringer and Brad Lander, State Senators Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos, and others — with single digits through numerous rounds of voting, a sign that the race is narrowing around the leading candidates in the waning weeks of the race.

As the June 24 primary draws nearer, more prominent names are making their preferences known. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez officially endorsed Mamdani as her No. 1 choice following the first debate last week and publicized her full ranked ballot, which included City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, Lander, Stringer, and Myrie. Ocasio-Cortez made her first appearance with Mamdani on Sunday during the city’s annual National Puerto Rican Day Parade where the two shared a float in the procession. The two later met up with Representative Nydia Velázquez, who voiced her support for the assemblymember as her first choice on her ranked-choice ballot.

Cuomo also took to the streets on Sunday where he walked in the parade side by side with two of his supporters: Representative Adriano Espaillat and Ramos, who notably endorsed the former governor late last week despite her extensive past criticisms of his tenure in Albany as well as his character. Cuomo also paired his attendance at the Puerto Rican Day Parade with an endorsement from Marc Anthony, the singer.

Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsement has prompted speculation as to whether Mamdani could receive some last-minute support from another prominent progressive: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders. When asked about potentially backing the assemblymember, he told HuffPost on Tuesday, “We’ll have more to say about that.”

The candidates will have one more opportunity to make their case to New Yorkers, as well as a lasting impression, during a second debate hosted by NY1 scheduled for Thursday evening.


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Photo-Illustration: YouTube/ Josh Gottheimer for Congress

Only two states will hold gubernatorial elections in 2025: Virginia and New Jersey. The former will not have gubernatorial primaries as the major-party candidates, Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, were unopposed. But New Jersey’s primaries to determine which candidates will compete to succeed term-limited incumbent Phil Murphy have become very expensive slugfests, particularly among Murphy’s fellow Democrats. The relative dearth of public polling on the June 10 races has made the outcome a bit more mysterious than usual. But the races will undoubtedly be studied closely as an early indicator of where voters stand five months into the second Trump administration. Here, what to watch in Tuesday’s races.

Republicans: Trump bulldozed the field

What might have been a robust Republican gubernatorial primary in the Garden State lost most of its drama when President Donald Trump endorsed 2021 nominee and front-runner Jack Ciattarelli. The longtime central New Jersey politician (a former state legislator and local elected official) is a familiar figure after finishing second in the 2017 gubernatorial primary and then running much better than expected against Murphy four years later. The Trump endorsement undercut MAGA talk-radio host Bill Spadea’s candidacy and made Ciattarelli’s past criticism of the 47th president largely moot. A third candidate, anti-Trump state senator Jon Bramnick, picked the wrong year to run. Ciattarelli has led comfortably in every public poll.

Democrats: Money to burn

The most striking thing about the Democratic gubernatorial race is how much money multiple candidates are raising and spending. Part of the reason is that New Jersey has one of the oldest and most generous public campaign-financing systems in the country, offering up to two-to-one matches of privately raised funds over $580,000. But lots of money is spent outside the system as well. As of May 27, official numbers showed that five of the Democrats (congresspeople Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill, mayors Ras Baraka of Newark and Steven Fulop of Jersey City, and former state legislative leader Steve Sweeney) had already spent over $6 million in private contributions and matching funds. But that doesn’t count PAC spending, particularly the incredible $37 million the state teachers-union PAC has made available to the campaign of its president, Sean Spiller, who hasn’t bothered to raise much money at all (and who did not, as a by-product, qualify for participation in the two state-sponsored candidate debates held last month). Spiller aside, the other candidates are reasonably competitive with one another in funds, with Gottheimer having held back the most for a final ad blitz.

Strategies and issues for Democrats

A recent overview of the Democratic race by Politico concludes that “each of the Democrats do have a conceivable path to victory on June 10.” Sherrill, a military veteran who flipped a U.S. House seat in 2018 and has a vaguely centrist image, is generally regarded as the front-runner (leading substantially in a couple of mid-May polls), in part because of her support from New Jersey’s usually powerful county party organizations. But that advantage may not be what it used to be since New Jersey recently abolished the so-called county line, a ballot design that gave party-endorsed candidates enormously greater visibility in primaries. A lot will depend on turnout patterns, which are also quite unpredictable since this is the first competitive New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial primary in a while. But early voting (mostly by mail, but, in the past week, in person as well) has been high, and all that spending should boost turnout as well. Baraka (who got a raft of publicity after being arrested during a protest at an ICE detention facility) and Fulop (who has stressed an anti-Establishment reputation), the most self-consciously progressive candidates, are counting on grassroots mobilization. Sweeney is the only candidate from the southern part of the state. Spiller is obviously very dependent on get-out-the-vote efforts from his union’s members. The large field of viable candidates and the fact that anyone can win with a simple plurality make this race hard to call.

As for issues, there are basically two: affordability and electability. All the Democrats claim they will lower New Jersey’s notably high cost of living. Baraka and Fulop are pushing for more progressive income-tax rates. Sweeney is heavily emphasizing tax breaks for seniors. Gottheimer has a comprehensive tax-reform scheme and is emphasizing “lower taxes” in a way that rivals Republicans.

But echoing the concerns of Democrats nationally, probably the top issue for Democrats is electability and who will most effectively defy the state’s most famous part-time resident, Donald Trump. Sherrill was something of a poster child for the Democratic resistance during Trump’s first term, knocking off a Republican incumbent in the 2018 midterms. Baraka was obviously willing to get himself handcuffed to show his opposition to Trump’s mass-deportation policies. Though all Democrats these days call themselves “fighters,” Gottheimer (despite the bipartisan reputation he developed as one of the founders of the House Problem Solvers Caucus) reached new highs (or, depending on how you look at it, lows) with a campaign ad that showed an AI-generated image of the congressman in boxing shorts duking it out with the president of the United States:

General-election stakes

Whoever emerges from the Democratic scrum and (presumably) Jack Ciattarelli will engage in a likely quite competitive general-election contest. Republican optimism is based on a general disgruntlement with the way in which Democrats have governed New Jersey (they’ve held a trifecta since 2017) and two recent trends: Ciattarelli’s surprisingly strong finish in 2021 and that Trump cut his margin of defeat in the state from 15.9 percent in 2020 to 5.9 percent in 2024. There’s also the fact that neither party has won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in New Jersey since 1961, so the GOP is due for a win.

On the other hand, as in Virginia, New Jersey gubernatorial elections usually (e.g., in seven of the past eight elections) tilt in the direction of the party that does not control the White House. And New Jersey remains a blue state overall, albeit by a recently diminishing margin. You can expect whoever wins this year to herald the results as an unmistakable omen of the political future, while the loser spins and makes excuses.

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Photo: Roy Rochlin/Getty Images for (BAM) Brooklyn

Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado’s abrupt announcement that he will challenge Governor Kathy Hochul in next year’s Democratic primary defies all the usual rules of political timing and calculation. Normally, politicians wait for a relatively quiet news cycle to announce their campaigns in order to gain maximum public attention. Instead, Delgado is asking us to think about the 2026 primary when most of the state’s donors, strategists, party leaders, and voters are focused on hotly contested races for mayor happening less than three weeks from now in Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester — and the main event here in New York City.

By trying to displace the same governor he ran with on a ticket, Delgado is planning a rare, exceedingly difficult maneuver that has been attempted only twice in the past half-century and never with success. “Antonio, you are a talented guy, with a great future. Based upon my experience this may not be the most well-thought out idea!” Representative Tom Suozzi, the veteran Long Island pol who made two unsuccessful runs for governor, wrote on X.

But Delgado says the situation facing New Yorkers is too dire for normal politics.

“The status quo is broken. It’s just broken. People are hurting a lot. One in four folks right now in New York and New York City cannot afford basic needs. Where’s the vision for that?” he told me. “Where’s the decision-making around that to make sure we have a clear path forward? I’m not seeing it, and I haven’t seen it since I’ve been lieutenant governor. I wanted to be a part of the decision-making process. Unfortunately, I didn’t see a decision-making process.”

Delgado’s lament is a familiar one. The state Constitution assigns New York lieutenant governors little formal power and only two official duties: stepping up if the governor dies or resigns, and ceremonially presiding over the state senate. In practice, lieutenants have only as much staff, office space and input as the governor allows. Most end up criss-crossing the state every week, cutting ribbons, chairing committees and giving speeches promoting the governor’s policies, often in remote reaches of the state.

While the position is well-compensated – Delgado’s salary of $210,000 makes him the highest-paid lieutenant governor in America – more than one occupant of the office has simply quit, complaining that they got tired of being ignored, or sent out to promote policies in which they had no input.

“It’s easy to get suckered into pretending you’re important. I wasn’t about to pretend,” explained Alfred del Bello, who in 1984 quit as Mario Cuomo’s lieutenant after only two years.  Another lieutenant, Betsy McCaughey, went months without ever speaking to Gov. George Pataki. In 2014, Bob Duffy, a former mayor and police chief, cited the grind as a reason not to run for re-election as Andrew Cuomo’s lieutenant.  “While the consistent travel is vitally important to this position, the thousands of miles per week in the car have resulted in the residual effects of constant back and leg pain,”  he wrote to Cuomo in a 2014 letter explaining his withdrawal from the ticket.

Hochul stepped in as Duffy’s successor and hit the road, logging thousands of miles over the next seven years. Delgado, a Rhodes Scholar who resigned from an upstate congressional seat to take the job, told me he’s traveled 60,000 miles and attended more than 1,000 events, but never intended to simply be a cheerleader and grew tired of learning about administration positions by reading news reports. After some public spats with Hochul – Delgado independently called for President Biden to step aside and for Mayor Eric Adams to resign, positions contrary to the governor’s – he has become a full-blown critic who says Democrats in general need a fresh approach to politics and policy.

“You can’t tax credit your way out of housing. That is a model that we have tried over and over again, and every single time public funds get leveraged by the private sector and ultimately leave the community behind,” Delgado said. “Who’s gonna say, let’s figure out a new way to overhaul this system? Let’s figure out how to build state capacity and invest, maybe in something like a statewide rental assistance program? Seven out of 10 people right now in New York are eligible for federal rental assistance. And yet, right now, the governor proposes a $50 million pilot program – a pilot program in the middle of a housing crisis!  We need bolder, more aggressive, transformational leadership, and simply just tinkering around the edges, simply managing the status quo is not going to get us there.”

Delgado’s upstart campaign is a reminder that he first entered politics in 2018 as a maverick, unseating a Republican incumbent to represent a sprawling, conservative upstate rural district. “My district was 90% white, the eighth most rural congressional seat in the country, and Trump had won it by seven points just two years prior,” he told me. “People want folks who give a damn about them, who show up, who listen, who care, and who hold themselves and the system accountable. It shouldn’t just be about holding on to power. Power is not self-legitimating. If anything, it could be self-corrupting.”

That street organizer’s attitude – hold the system accountable – is a reminder that 2018 was a year that saw the arrival of a lot of young, left-leaning political disruptors.   Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the Bronx and Max Rose in Staten Island beat incumbents, as did four first-time progressive state senate candidates – Julia Salazar and Zellnor Myrie in Brooklyn, Jessica Ramos in Queens and Alessandra Biaggi in the Bronx – whose victories flipped control of the chamber to the Democrats. This new generation has seen the value of throwing out traditional political playbooks, which is why two members of the Class of 2018, Myrie and Ramos, are making long-shot runs for mayor and Delgado is taking on his own governor.

“I think what we were doing back in 2018, the vast majority of us who ran were outside of the machinery of politics,” Delgado said. “I certainly voted, but I wasn’t somebody who made my way through any type of gatekeeper or power centers or hierarchy or seniority or just pure partisan driven politics. And when you don’t make your way through that, you don’t owe anybody anything. You’re not beholden to any specific actors or leaders within the party; who you are beholden to are the people. And that has always been my outlook through this process.”

If Delgado is right, New York is ready for another spate of political activism comparable to the upheavals of 2018. We shall see.


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Photo: Rebecca Blackwell/AP Photo

Five months into Donald Trump’s push to round up millions of immigrants, multiple U.S. citizens have been caught in the dragnet. In April, José Hermosillo, a 19-year-old from Albuquerque, spent ten days in detention before the government acknowledged he was a citizen and dismissed his deportation case. In Florida, highway-patrol cops enforcing the state’s new anti-immigration laws arrested a 20-year-old and tried to transfer him to ICE custody — even after his mother provided his birth certificate. A Puerto Rican U.S.-military veteran was detained during a workplace raid in Newark, New Jersey, in January. Some citizens have even been deported, all of them children deported along with their parents, including a 2-year-old American-born girl deported to Brazil, who is now effectively stateless.

If Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests you for an immigration-related offense, and you tell the agency you are a citizen, it might not release you. Citizenship isn’t something that you wear on your body. Maybe you pull an ID, passport, or even a birth certificate, but agents frequently assume these are fake. In that case, you will be taken to a detention center, run by a private prison company. You can tell the guards there that you’re a citizen, but they’ll likely respond with some version of “tell it to the judge.” Your immigration-court appearance could be weeks, or even months, away. You will wait behind bars. There’s no right to counsel in immigration court — if you can’t afford a lawyer, you’ll have to represent yourself. When you finally see the inside of a courtroom, it could be what ICE calls a “mass removal” hearing with dozens of other defendants. You won’t have a chance to talk to a judge.

The U.S. citizens I’ve spoken to who have spent time in immigration jail describe fighting against a feeling of resignation — not just the temptation to give up on their legal case, but to give up on their belief that they are actually a citizen. Their sense of citizenship, with all its protections, dematerializes as soon as the government begins insisting they were in the country illegally. Peter Brown, a Philadelphia-born resident who spent three weeks in a local jail after ICE targeted him for deportation in 2019, told me he got whiplash: One day he was a free citizen, the next the government could keep him behind bars indefinitely. In his case, the agency’s error was simple — it had confused him with another Peter Brown, a Jamaican fugitive. In jail, he was staring down a deportation to a country he had only visited once, for a day trip on a cruise. “I really went into a state of panic,” Brown says. He repeated to his jailers that he was a citizen, and he offered to provide his birth certificate. He signed every document with, “Peter Sean Brown, United States Citizen.” It didn’t make a difference. Brown says that the last guard he saw before he was placed into the transport van ahead of deportation to Jamaica smirked at him and said, in a fake Jamaican accent, “Yeah, whatever, mon, everything’s gonna be all right.” After he was transferred to a detention center in Miami, an agent finally agreed to look at his birth certificate, and ICE released him.

Though immigration enforcement gets more attention under Trump, ICE, since its modern creation after 9/11, has mistakenly detained, and sometimes deported, thousands of U.S. citizens under presidents of both parties. What has changed under Trump is the government’s willingness to admit, and correct, its errors. In March, the administration rushed some 278 deportees to CECOT, the supermax hellhole of a prison in El Salvador, in violation of a court order. One of these deportations was, by the government’s own admission in court, a mistake: Kilmer Abrego Garcia should not have been deported. But when a judge demanded the administration return him, it shrugged: He was in El Salvador; it was too late now.

Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of sending citizens to El Salvador, and the government making this sort of “error” with a citizen in ICE custody would be one way to accomplish that before the courts intervene. It’s getting easier to see that day coming. In his pursuit of millions of deportations, Trump and his crew of true believers have argued it’s time to remove the safeguards and put the deportation machine into overdrive. “The right of ‘due process’ is to protect citizens from their government, not to protect foreign trespassers from removal,” White House adviser Stephen Miller posted online in May. “Due process guarantees the rights of a criminal defendant facing prosecution, not an illegal alien facing deportation.” (Last week, the government blamed “a confluence of administrative errors” for deporting another man in violation of a court order.) Miller’s reading of the Constitution wasn’t particularly impressive — the Fifth Amendment says that “no person” shall be deprived of due process, not “no citizen.” His logic, though, was even more suspect: What do the protections of citizenship mean without due process? If you have no chance to argue your case in court, how will you convince anyone you’re a citizen if you’re arrested by mistake?

When I read Miller’s post, and later heard Trump doubt that noncitizens should be afforded due process, there was one man I wanted to call: Davino Watson, who holds the known record for the longest amount of time a U.S. citizen has spent in ICE detention. Today, he lives in Brooklyn and works nights as a security guard in Manhattan. “What people are going through right now, and what happened to me, isn’t going to end anytime soon,” he tells me.

From 2008 to 2011, Watson spent 1,273 days — he counted them — in detention. It started in 2007, when Watson pleaded guilty to selling cocaine in a New York State court. This is how U.S. citizens often end up held by in ICE: Law-enforcement agencies around the country send names and biometric data to the Department of Homeland Security when they have suspects in custody. If a name or fingerprint pings on a database, ICE might request a “detainer” and ask the authorities to hold the person until the feds can come pick them up. This system is prone to errors. Even though he was a citizen, Watson’s name drew a flag; he showed up in the Feds’ database as a “deportable alien.”

There’s no master list of U.S. citizens, no reliable dataset immigration agents can refer to when they want to determine who is a citizen and who isn’t. Citizenship, as it exists on paper, is a conglomeration of documents, of birth certificates, Social Security cards, and naturalization papers. And it’s not simple. Even if you were born in the U.S., clerical errors can get you on record as a noncitizen. It’s even more difficult to prove citizenship for immigrants, like Watson, who was born in Jamaica. He immigrated, with a visa, to New York when he was 13 to live as a legal permanent resident with his father, also a legal permanent resident. A few years later, before Watson’s 18th birthday, his father became a naturalized citizen, which meant that, legally, Watson became a citizen as well.

Photo: Courtesy of the subject

While serving a short sentence for his cocaine charge, Watson learned that, after he finished his prison time, he’d be transferred to ICE custody and deported.From that moment, he maintained vehemently, and correctly, that was a citizen. In his first interview with agents, Watson explained his father was a citizen and he gave them his father’s phone number. In their records, the agents wrote a note to call him and “verify status.” His father could have easily provided his naturalization documents. But the agents never got in touch with him.

They did, however, look up his name, and Watson’s stepmother, in a database. This is where ICE made the mistake that would keep Watson behind bars for over three years: His father’s name was Hopeton Ulando Watson, and his stepmother was Clare Watson; both lived in New York. When searching, however, agents found a different couple: Hopeton Livingston Watson and Calrie Watson, two Jamaican citizens who lived in Connecticut. ICE decided these were Davino’s parents — even though their names were different, they lived in a different state, and Hopeton’s file listed no son named Davino. It didn’t matter. ICE opened deportation proceedings.

In an upstate detention center, Watson struggled to fight his case. “Once you go into a place like that, and you don’t have a good family backing you, or you don’t have an attorney, you’re screwed,” he says. “Because you’re gonna be ignored; because their job is to get you out of there as fast as possible.” With no right to counsel, Watson — who, at that time, didn’t have a GED — represented himself. He made do with the tiny law library in the detention center. In a series of handwritten letters, he appealed to the Board of Immigration Appeals. He spent most days locked up for 23 hours. “I’m still suffering from that stuff,” he says. He had panic attacks. He didn’t sleep. “But I told myself I had two options: give up or fight.”

Watson was able to get in touch with his father to get his naturalization papers, which he sent to the BIA. But there was little his family could do to support him, especially after he was moved far away from New York to a detention center in rural Alabama. Without a lawyer to push the courts to move, they had to wait for a legal process to play out at its own speed. It took years, but eventually the BIA, even with the naturalization papers in front of them, denied his request for a stay, concluding the government could deport him. The court’s argument was arcane: It maintained that Watson couldn’t prove his father had custody of him when he was naturalized.

In a rush, Watson filed an appeal in federal court just in time — that same night, ICE agents came to his cell and told him to pack up. He would have been deported if the district court hadn’t issued a stay. Once he was arguing in federal court, he was finally afforded a lawyer who pushed ICE to conduct its own internal review of his citizenship.

One day, guards came to his room without warning and said he was leaving. Watson made his way through the guts of the jail in a daze; a door opened and he was released into the Alabama sun. No one had told him why he was being released. He had no money and no phone; he was still wearing his prison jumpsuit. He had to cautiously approach strangers and ask if he could make a call, the start of a long journey home.

A court would eventually rule that Watson had been wrongfully imprisoned. But the statute of limitations to sue the government began the day he got locked in ICE detention; it had passed by the time he was released. “I never cared about the money — I just wanted justice,” Watson says. Since his time in jail, he has struggled with addiction and anxiety. Getting straight, he says, meant letting go: giving up on his wrongful imprisonment case and trying to move on. “If I didn’t, it would have destroyed me; I had to shake it off, had to let it go,” he says.

Unlike police, ICE agents almost never have to testify in court. In Watson’s case, the officers who made the mistakes that kept him in jail remained anonymous in all court documents; even the judges who incorrectly ruled that Watson should be deported remained anonymous, thanks to a Department of Justice arrangement that keeps immigration proceedings opaque. While the law is clear — ICE is not to arrest U.S. citizens — agents have such significant discretion, and such little accountability, that, in practice, the first opportunity a citizen will have to meaningfully contest their arrest is at their first court appearance. And that can take a while.

“When U.S. citizens sue for damages for wrongful imprisonment, and the government pays millions of dollars, no one gets fired; no ICE agents lose salaries,” says Jacqueline Stevens, a professor of political science at Northwestern University and director of the school’s Deportation Research Clinic. “It’s the U.S. taxpayers who are on the hook when ICE screws up.”

In 2017, Stevens began studying cases like Watson’s, combing court records for instances of ICE detainees being released after the government acknowledged they were citizens. She connected with dozens, including many who had been deported before the government could correct its error, and who got in touch with her from other countries. “This is happening all the time,” she says. In her study, she found that, on average, U.S. citizens detained by ICE spent 180 days behind bars. Deportation is always a real possibility. At a mass removal hearing she attended, Stevens remembers the judge declaring that all 50 defendants would be deported; as bailiffs cleared the room, a man stood up and shouted “I thought I’d have a chance to speak to a judge!”

Stevens and other legal experts offered the same prescription for the problem: more due process, not less. If he’d been afforded a lawyer from day one, it’s possible Watson wouldn’t have spent any time in jail.

Watson says that, looking back, he’s not confident that the damage long-term imprisonment did to his mind and body was worth it to remain in the country. “As lovely as America sounds, it’s not everything. It’s okay to start back over and live your life, because sometimes you’re gonna sit there for a long time if you’re fighting,” he says. His advice to other citizens in ICE detention is to remain open to giving up, if deportation means getting out of jail. “But if you feel like you were wronged and you feel you have a strong case — you can do it. Fight. Just know it’s gonna be hard.”

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