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OK guys, put on your maths brains as mine is going π΅
I watched the movie 21 yesterday and one of the opening scenes is a seemingly simple probability question.
"It's a game show and there are 3 doors. Behind 2 of the doors are goats, behind 1 is a car. A lecturer acting as a game show host asks a student to choose from 3 doors. They choose door number 1. The host opens door 3 , reveals a goat, then asks the contestant if they want to keep door 1 as their choice. The student , acting as contestant says he will go with door 2 as his odds just went from 33% to 66%.
Here's where my brain went π΅.
Aren't the choosing of doors two separate events? And don't the odds go from 33% to 50%? How is it 66%?
The reason is that the door that gets opened is not random, so they are not two independent events.
There is a 66% chance that one of the doors you have not chosen has the car behind it. By showing you which one of the doors does not have the car the host effectively transfers all of that 66% chance to the one door.
Edit: that means the choice should be to switch, not stay, doesn't it? Either the student was wrong to stay or I have it completely arse about.
Edit 2 - yeah, Googled to confirm, you should switch.
The student just wanted the goat
Fair enough, goats are cool.
Oo oo oo! I just watched this recently! The Simple Question that Stumped Everyone Except Marilyn vos Savant
Are the GPs/doctors at MyHealth Carlton any good?
Our previous one disappeared.
So we're looking for a new GP near Carlton, for my wife and I but mostly for my wife, so some emphasis on women's health.
If you can travel, the doctors at Royal Park Medical in North Melbourne are the best Iβve ever seen.
Went to the doctor to get my xray results but they haven't been sent yet, so the doctor is going to chase it up and then give me a call. I attempted to ask about what precautions I should take with my elbow if it isn't a fracture but he said he'd be guided by me, but there's that part of me that is inherently stuck in work culture (feels guilty for missing work) and also has a very high pain tolerance that just needs the doctor make some form a call if that makes sense?
Vacuuming was brought to a halt as the handle of the vacuum came off. It looks like a couple of rivets or similar have broken on the piece that should hold it clipped in. I have repaired it with some superglue and stickytape, but will now have to wait until it dries. Miss Meow is no doubt relieved as the vacuuming stopped before reaching the lounge room. I decided to also give the brushes a good clean, it is alarming just how much hair manages to wrap itself around them.
oh wow, these old Melodya LPs are always amazing.
This one is a Khachaturian ballet played by some orchestra which I can't even read let alone pronounce.
Currently in Japan, and I wonder what the site inspection guy would think of the fact that nearly everything waterproofing related here is pre-fab.
It would send him out of business, but you do lose customizability.
It's also changed a lot since I have last visited in 2019. Family Mart now has Self Serve, and 7/11 here has a lot more migrant workers.
Fuel price in Osaka is 174 yen per a liter. Given the the AUD to Yen is almost at parity, I think we're being ripped off at the pump.