this post was submitted on 12 Jan 2024
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For anyone wondering, you should absolutely get a heat pump -- the savings are still substantial, even if you need to use an alternate heat source for the coldest days of the year. My annual electric costs are down over 50% since switching about 4 years ago. For the couple days a year when the heat pump doesn't do the job, it supplements with electric heat.
Here's the thing though, 50% reduction in my electrical use is like $30 a month. It's going to take quite a few years of 50% to make a $10k cost difference justifiable.
Don't get me wrong, I'm all for heat pumps in principle. I personally have a heat pump heating my pool. I put in central air conditioning a couple years ago, and took a serious look at it for the house, but it was going to be more than double the cost. My electrical bill isn't the problem either, it's all the damn fees and riders that drive it into the stratosphere, not usage.
So that + the fact I live in Southern Alberta and it might not be very useful 4 or 5 months of the year, I just can't make it make sense. The government is going to need to give out more grant $$ before I'll consider it.
You might be surprised. I pulled 10 years of data for Lucky Lake, SK from environment Canada and the average number of days below -15C is 62. Our personal heating season is about 220 days (first use to last use, no matter how minimal). That works out to about 72% coverage for one of the less capable heat pumps.
Others have suggested a minimum of -20 for long-term reliability. I didn't do that analysis, but I did for below -25 and the average number of days is more like 21. IIRC, below -30 was no more than a dozen, on average.
Obviously, every household's calculations are different. Yours sound like it's not worthwhile from a strictly personal finance perspective.
Precisely. You might pay more for heat on a couple days a year, but overall the advantage is huge.
I definitely should look at the details closer for our area. My big concern is with the big negatives, is mainly are these units going to last? Even though the ratings go to -15 or -20, the facts are that efficiency falls off a cliff even before you start getting into negative temps. At -15 you are using more energy than you would otherwise be with conventional heating sources. Now does that offset with more efficient days, I mean it probably does, it has to. But that doesn't factor wear and tear. I mean that might be concern that's all for naught too, but I just want to sit back a bit and see, personally.