Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Operation Barbarossa lasted 5 months 13 days, the Battle of Stalingard began seven months after Barbarossa ended and itself lasted 6 months 2 weeks 2 days
Just some historical facts for the 'Everything has to happen NOW, NOW, NOW gang'
Iran Yesterday: We will never surrender! We are preparing for a two year war.
Iran today: Just kidding, we’ll stop attacking whenever you want us to.
I never saw Stalin signing a bunch of ceasefires and letting the Nazis salami slice the USSR up. Once the war began the USSR fought until they were in Berlin. They didn’t stop fighting as soon as the Germans retreated the first time to regroup
Maybe the non-aggresion pact was not a ceasefire but it served the same purpose of delaying the inevitable. That one turned out to be a wise decision, I really hope this ceasefire will do so as well although I also fear it could go the other way.
Yeah that was a one-time action, and the USSR needed the time to prepare. How many times has Iran fallen for it? Like seven at this point? JCPOA, Soleimani, Axis of Resistance getting dismantled piece by piece, JCPOA 2.0, "2 weeks" until we strike, killing negotiators, Friday the 13th (anti-air systems weren't even loaded or ready to go, destroyed totally afk). What has the stalling bought them? Why do they keep trying it over and over and over and over?
Would Stalin not have accepted more chances to take that action? Stop the invasion again and get another couple months? Stalin was convinced, rightly, that the more days they had the more their industrial capacity would make up for the lacking "current" status, and that at a faster rate than the Axis. For Iran and China, it's the exact same at the moment. Every day breathing and able to continue producing is a day of winning a larger war. Is that exactly what Iranian leaders are saying? I doubt it. But it's why the hardliners are going to accept this if possible
Iran could have fought on October 8th with Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria, Yemen, Iraqi groups and themselves.
Instead they waited and now they are cornered, alone, getting bombed from Syria.
It is objectively a failure that they did not act. Israel destroyed their embassy in Syria and assassinated Haniyeh in Tehran and gave them the perfect opportunity, but instead they did de-escalatory telegraphed attacks. They let Beirut, Damascus and Gaza be blown to smithereens and did nothing - so nobody could help them when they came for Tehran. They let Nasrallah and Hezbollah fall. Now they have to pay for their negligence to their allies because they have none.
They would have gotten nuked. That’s the problem tho. Israel has a deterrence that prevents the axis from winning a solid military victory. Instead you have to beat them a different way.
The pact makes sense because the Soviet Union was already at war with fascist Japan and didn't want to fight a two-front war against the fascists. After stomping on Japanese fascists, the Soviet Union would sign a non-aggression pact with Japan right before Operation Barbarossa, thereby guaranteeing that the Soviet Union would continue to fight the fascists only on a single front instead of two. And after stomping on German fascists, the Soviet Union broke their non-aggression pact with Japan and liberated Manchuria because only libs keep their promises to fascists.