Washington (AFP) – Dozens of US military aircraft are no longer on the tarmac at a major US base in Qatar, satellite images show -- a possible move to shield them from eventual Iranian air strikes, as Washington weighs whether to intervene in Tehran's conflict with Israel.
Between June 5 and 19, nearly all of the aircraft visible at the Al Udeid base are no longer anywhere in plain sight, according to images published by Planet Labs PBC and analyzed by AFP.
Nearly 40 military aircraft -- including transport planes like the Hercules C-130 and reconnaissance aircraft -- were parked on the tarmac on June 5. In an image taken on June 19, only three aircraft are visible.
The US embassy in Qatar announced Thursday that access to the base would be limited "out of an abundance of caution and in light of ongoing regional hostilities," and urged personnel to "exercise increased vigilance."
The White House says US President Donald Trump will decide sometime in the next two weeks whether to join ally Israel's strikes on Iran. The Islamic republic could then respond by striking US bases in the region.
Mark Schwartz, a former lieutenant general in the US Army and a defense researcher at the Rand Corporation, said the personnel, aircraft and installations at Al Udeid would be "extremely vulnerable" given its "close proximity" to Iran.
Schwartz, who served in the Middle East, told AFP that even shrapnel could render the aircraft "non-mission capable."
"You want to reduce risk to US forces, both personnel and equipment," he said.
The planes that have left the tarmac since early June could have been moved to hangars or to other bases in the region.
The US military did not immediately respond to an AFP request for comment.
US forces in the Middle East have been mobilized since Israel's first strikes on Iran nearly a week ago, with an additional aircraft carrier en route and significant aircraft movement.
An AFP analysis of open source data tracking aircraft positioning showed that at least 27 military refueling planes -- KC-46A Pegasus and KC-135 Stratotanker planes -- traveled from the United States to Europe from June 15-18.
Twenty-five of them were still in Europe as of late Wednesday, with only two returning to American soil, the data showed.
I really hope Iran doesn’t start lobbing missiles at Al Udeid, that would be a catastrophic escalation. I don’t think they will, despite some people’s attempt to depict the Iranian regime as crazy, they are definitely rational and acting in a way they think is in their best interest. I think they realize that attacking the US directly would not be beneficial to their agenda. Anyway, this is the world’s first good look at war conducted via ballistic missile, aside from the brief exchange last year.
That entirely depends on the US. Iran won't strike first, but like they said, if they are attacked, they will have no choice but to respond.
Question is who will help Iran
I doubt any major power will intervene for Iran unless it looks like a regime change that actually benefits Israel / the USA happens. China and Russia have basically been minimal allies with Iran for the sake of funding an enemy of America, but they've always wanted Iran to remain weaker.
The small pro Iran groups, largely the groups Iran trained will act, but they have been already for the past 3 years.