this post was submitted on 15 Jun 2025
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Woah, that's nuts. I feel like most missiles don't reach target in Israel. Maybe that's cause most are aimed at Jerusalem and the Iron Dome though?
I don't know if anyone has any real information but I'd think Iran would be shooting air bases and such. Targets that hurt Israel's ability to hurt Iran. Israel's command probably cares less about a residential building (full of people or empty) than a hangar with F35s.
Iran has spent decades building an arsenal of cheap drones that aren't really designed to hit targets, they are designed to financially cripple Israel by expending expensive iron dome charges.
From I've seen they certainly used that initially with mostly older, cheaper, and slower drones in the initial waves intentionally to bleed out the iron dome but have been changing their strategy as the "Iron Dome" is weakened and/or gaps are discovered.
With each wave they adjust their strategy. Interspersing more Hypersonics and layering the drones in different patterns/locations to more readily distract/avoid the iron dome.
From estimated ratios of 9 impacts out of/150 launched in the first few waves vs 9/50 in the more recent waves.
Though obviously Israel hides the damage/strikes through media blackouts on military sites so we can't know for sure how accurate these estimates are and we mainly only get reporting on impacts in Tel-Aviv or other militarized "civilian" zones.
Oh for sure, I'm just saying they don't even need to hit any targets and they'd still be winning long term. They are capable of much more, and Israel can't fight Iran without US.
Satanyahu is betting on forcing Trump to agree to war with Iran on his watch. Avoiding that is thankfully one of Trump's main priorities, hopefully they don't succeed in changing his calculus on it.
And they aren't able to and won't be able to maintain media blackout much longer, Iran has stated that they will keep going and will go harder, and we've already seen some seriously damaged neighborhoods. As long as Iran keeps it reasonable (and what is reasonable has changed tremendously in the last two years of genocide and western media going hard to defend and justify Israeli war crimes), I think Trump can tolerate way more destruction of Tel Aviv than netanyahu thought he would.