According to the latest rumor, some Asian darknet overlords are responsible.
They have billions in non-fungible digital money, and they are moving it into Monero because the Alphabet boys came down on them.
Haowang Guarantee was larger than the Silk Road, larger than Hydra, just the "largest illicit online marketplace to have ever operated", with $27 Billion of transactions since launching in 2021.
That's possible. I happened to see these weird/questionable theories elsewhere, not really convincing:
https://u.today/xmr-explodes-past-350-is-monero-finally-back
[This may be right.]
https://u.today/monero-xmr-surges-with-3900-volume-skyrocketing
Ah, AI-generated "cheap" text. That'd explain a lot!
In addition to what you've pointed out (which perhaps many Monero users agree with) such as the paper Monero issue, I'd say that fundamentally CEXes have this conflict of interest: they're supposed to help investors or whatever, help them become rich (as if that's the point). But reality is, often customers' losses are their profits - that's their (casino-like) business. In short, they essentially want you to lose your money. And in the first place, this investment aspect is not even the point of cryptocurrencies.
EU bans in 2027? - that's old news. Already in 2022: there were anonymous accounts ban in Lithuania for example (and the remarks by US Deputy Secretary of the Treasury about "unhosted wallets" too). Basically central entities have always wanted to regulate things centrally, but that's not how cryptos are supposed to work. I think XMR is one of the only few coins, still having this fundamental (admittedly, a bit idealistic) philosophy. Either way XMR is only a few "true" cryptos, actually being used (as opposed to just being traded as investment aka gambling). Because of that, some people, including myself, may tend to feel that Monero is essentially valuable and that the recent price movements are something that could have always happened (though, this unconscious assumption could be misleading too). So maybe... even though what's happening now might have been triggered by some criminals, that may have been just catalysts; the cause of these price actions may be intrinsic - because Monero is valuable, it's being valued. Perhpas a bit too optimistic view, but perhaps not entirely untrue either?
Cryptographically it'd be absurd to share your sec key with CEX ("hosted" wallet). Like 30-year-old PGP/GPG key-escrow debates yet again; or worse, not even escrow, CEX users don't even have their keys. Which feels so absurd. I've never once used CEXes, except I tried no-KYC web swaps a few times (but they too are CEXes, having the same fundamental problems). Obviously pure P2P DEX solutions feel much better and safer, where Alice and Bob are mathematically / trustlessly safe as in atomic swaps or via multisigs. DEXes (e.g. Bisq, Haveno) may be for-profict business too (no free lunch), but that's beside the point. Nevertheless, it's important to realize that everything, including "no-KYC" or "DEX" solutions, may become "sneaky" if not scammy.