Here in the UK, the new tax year just started. I've sent the order to fill up my ISA for the year. Here's hoping that Trump reverses the tariffs shortly after my buy order gets fulfilled(!)

The tariffs are a bit scary for me. They seem like a way to directly introduce inefficiency and waste into the market. I guess index funds are based on the assumption that over the long term, markets get more efficient and this makes the stock prices go up.

I am still confident that will continue to happen in the long term. But the talk about "dismantling globalism" does make me wonder if any of these underlying assumptions are going to be proven wrong eventually.

I still think common sense will prevail "eventually". These tariffs give a rallying point for the opposition in the US to start kicking in, and rationality to return. But it is funny how, with each downturn, you start to think "maybe this time it's different"!

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 months ago

I think it's going to take months for this tariff situation to stabilize. For us here in the US, economists are already predicting -1% gross domestic product growth, so if that happens, we're halfway into a recession. The tariffs will be enough to push us over the edge.

It's going to turn into a game of chicken to see who comes to the table first asking for a deal. If the European and Asian countries stick together, they can outlast Trump.

Trump is going to be under pressure to get this resolved before the mid-term elections next November. US presidents typically lose a few Senate and House seats in mid-terms, but after tanking the economy for no good reason, this could be a disaster for his party.

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