this post was submitted on 09 Jan 2025
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chapotraphouse
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we're 4 and a half years away from the next election. many MANY more stupid things can happen between now and then
You think Kier Stormfront will hold on to power the whole time?
no, I really do not. his polling is so far in the negatives; but more importantly, the labour right are a bunch of back stabbing freaks who have many times in the history of the party absolutely eaten one another alive, and will do so again. remember, britain is not a presidential republic, all you need to be PM is leader of the largest party; you can absolutely launch a coup from whin your own party and assume PMship without an election of any kind, the tories did this so many times in the past few years. so no, I do not see Starmer as PM in August 2029 come the next GE
Polling doesn't matter when you have such a large majority. Labour could lose a Theresa May level of seats every year through by-elections and still not have to call an election until 2029.
Without Brexit as a dividing issue or an organisation like the ERG, we're not going to see a mirror of the Tory's leadership contests, and the mechanism for changing party leader is completely different as well.
A lot can happen in five years, but I'll buy a hat and subsequently eat it if Kier isn't PM in 2029.