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The original was posted on /r/thedeprogram by /u/airplane3579 on 2025-06-17 17:25:23+00:00.
With tensions escalating rapidly between Isn'treal and Iran and the increasingly likelihood of direct U.S. involvement, it's becoming increasingly clear that a regional war or even wider conflict could act as a catalyst for a hyperinflationary spiral, particularly for the US. This wouldn't just be a geopolitical crisis, it would rip through the global capitalist economy at a moment of profound internal fragility due to its own internal/external contadiction.
The United States is no longer the industrial powerhouse it was in 1941. It's a hyper-financialized, debt-addicted empire reliant on imports, asset/debt bubbles, and an increasingly brittle dollar hegemon status. If war erupts and Iran responds by closing off trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz where ~20% of the world's oil alone passes through, we’re looking at a shock that will push oil to $150–$300/barrel or higher. That spike won’t just hit gas stations, it will reverberate through agriculture, shipping, manufacturing, and everything downstream. Supply chains will convulse, prices will explode, and capital will panic.
But it won’t stop there.
We’re already witnessing record interest payments on U.S. debt, waning foreign appetite for treasuries, and the potential of monetizing debt via the Fed in the form of secondary market interventions. This is where capitalist contradictions hit critical mass: the state must spend more on war and interest, while the money printer goes brrr to finance war industries and the military industrial complex monopolist capital via state military contracts which would amplify inflation, drive up treasury service rates, resulting in a situation that demands even more intervention.
This is a feedback loop, not a policy tool. It’s not the 1940s anymore. The U.S. doesn’t have the industrial base to absorb the cost of imperialist war and has no New Deal social cohesion to draw on. The reserve currency status of the dollar now requires global trust, and nothing shatters that trust faster than geopolitical overreach on top of internal economic instability and contradictions.
If hyperinflation emerges, it won’t be from scarcity alone, but from collapsing confidence in a capitalist system that can no longer manage its contradictions. People will spend money faster and faster to outrun price increases and treasuries would need massive injections of liquidity that it would make 2020 look like a joke, and ordinary proletarians will bear the brunt.
As Lenin noted, imperialism is the highest stage of capitalism and this may be the point where its contradictions implode simultaneously: endless war, falling profit rates, internal decay, social atomization, and the failure of the dollar as global money.
Basically, a war with Iran could be the spark that lights the whole powder keg.