Futurology

Diamond prices are down 60% since a 2011 high, and they are still falling. It's not all down to lab-grown diamonds, demand is down too, especially in China.

No one can lab-grow gold yet, so its rarity and scarcity protect its value, but that will end too. It's just a question of when. China launched an asteroid touch-down mission this week, which will make it the 4th country/region to do so, after Europe, the US & Japan.

How soon will it be feasible to mine asteroids? Who knows, but a breakthrough in space propulsion might mean the prospect happens quickly when it does. It's possible gold has twenty years or less of being high value left.

The $80 Billion Diamond Market Crash Leaves De Beers Reeling

One of the most persistent biases in commentary on AI is many people's assumption that Silicon Valley VC-funded efforts are its main driver. But all the evidence points to something bigger than them - Open-Source.

Alibaba, the Chinese company that developed QwenLong-L1 isn't making their AI open-source out of the goodness of their heart. They get the benefit of lots of free workers improving it, and they also get to undermine their competitors. Many of the open-source AI are Chinese. It's possible China may be coordinating their efforts on a national scale, as a tit-for-tat retaliation measure responding to the US trying to weaken Chinese AI.

The global effect is the decentralized dispersion of AI technology with no one company or country dominating it - in the long run that will be its biggest outcome.

QwenLong-L1 solves long-context reasoning challenge that stumps current LLMs

Canada is heating up at twice the global average thanks to climate change. The fire seasons of 2023 and 2024 were the worst two years for wildfires in Canadian history - now 2025 looks set to beat their record.

Canadian wildfire smoke carries PM2.5 particles that can travel far into the U.S., worsening air quality in the Midwest, Northeast, and Great Lakes regions. These fine particles penetrate lungs and bloodstream, causing inflammation, lung damage, and higher infection risks. Children, the elderly, pregnant individuals, and those with heart or lung conditions are most vulnerable. Long-term exposure can worsen asthma, heart disease, and increase premature death risk.

Tough luck for Americans that they're living in the age of 'drill baby, drill' when the fossil fuel industry comes first, not them. As Lord Farquaad would say "Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make".

Article - More than 90 wildfires are out of control in Canada

The rocket is quoted as having a cargo capacity of ten tonnes. How much do they think each launch will cost? If it's $1 million, then that is $100 per kg. Is there anyone willing to pay that much money for same day delivery?

There are four other Chinese companies who say they are close to launching reusable rockets too, and expect to launch in 2025/26 - iSpace, LandSpace, Deep Blue Aerospace, Galactic Energy - though the last is only talking about a reusable booster.

Also interesting - the publicly disclosed funding for this company is less than $100 million. I'm assuming they had more they did not disclose. If they managed to do this for $100 million, that seems very impressive.

China completes first sea-based vertical landing of reusable rocket

The startup's wikipedia page

China's Taobao working with startup on deliveries by reusable rocket

Try as we might, we will never escape the limits imposed by Carnot’s logic. The same is true for Newton’s and Einstein’s and that of many others who have worked to describe the universe as it is and not as they want it to be. In that regard, Carnot haunts us. They all haunt us. As our imaginations run wild on fantastical technologies and fantastical futures, the laws of physics will be there to keep us in check.

The sooner we shed our biases about the future, the sooner we face Carnot’s ghost head on, the smarter and sounder our decisions about the future will be. Read more on Substack.

Space looms large in our futurist thinking. It's important to address what we misjudge to be possible in that realm in order to bring our expectations back down to Earth. Read more on Substack

The paradox of Europe's space efforts is that it has the money and technical expertise to be number 1, but is always playing runner-up, and is now third behind the US and China. ESA - Europe's equivalent of NASA & China's CNSA, has 23 member states - most of which have their own national space agencies too.

This fragmentation and diffusion has always been a huge problem, now ESA has another. NASA is abandoning it's biggest joint NASA/ESA project. The ill-fated SLS/Gateway/Artemis Moon landing program is up for the axe in the latest NASA budget. Taking its place (and money) will be plans to pivot to Mars, led by - you guessed it - a certain South African's space company.

Will ESA do something decisive as it readjusts? If past performance is any guide, don't hold your breath. Then again, maybe this time might be different.

This article gives details on the many shortcomings that make the 'golden dome' idea unworkable. These objections have been around since Ronald Reagan proposed the idea in the 1980's, and they are even more true today. The 'golden dome' proposal deals with ICBM-type missiles, but they are already out of date. The 'golden dome' proposal has even less chance against hypersonic missiles that travel at Mach 20.

Ask yourself a question - The $175 billion 'golden dome' idea requires 36,000 satellites. Is there a certain South African at the center of the US government who might be pushing this idea, because he's the man who'll get a lot of that $175 billion to supply & launch them?

Most people have the vague sense that we’ll all be flying around on starships in a hundred years, colonizing the planets and the stars. Or… Or… even if they’re not sure what we’ll be doing, they’re certain that technology will have advanced so much that life will be very different for human beings.

I don’t believe so. And yet, I seem to be one of a very few.

I want to create a discourse about realistic futurism. I think it’s important. That’s why I’m launching Ghost of Carnot, a platform for sharing thoughts and exchanging ideas on realistic futurism.

Read more on Substack.