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Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on July 12 cautioned the United States, South Korea, and Japan against forming a security partnership specifically targeting North Korea.

Lavrov delivered the warning during a visit to North Korea, where he held talks with leader Kim Jong Un and conveyed greetings from Russian President Vladimir Putin, signaling further consolidation of their burgeoning military and economic cooperation.

Relations between Russia and North Korea have expanded significantly in recent years. North Korea has been a crucial supplier of troops and ammunition for Russia's war in Ukraine, reportedly in exchange for military and economic assistance.

This deepening cooperation has raised alarms among South Korea, the U.S., and other nations concerned that Russia might transfer sensitive technologies that could enhance North Korea's nuclear and missile programs.

Speaking to reporters after his meeting with North Korean counterpart Choe Son Hui, Lavrov accused the U.S., South Korea, and Japan of military buildups around North Korea. "We warn against exploiting these ties to build alliances directed against anyone, including North Korea and, of course, Russia," Lavrov said, according to the Associated Press.

The U.S., South Korea, and Japan have, in turn, been expanding or restoring their trilateral military exercises in response to North Korea’s advancing nuclear program. On July 11, the three nations conducted a joint air drill involving U.S. nuclear-capable bombers near the Korean Peninsula.

Simultaneously, their top military officers convened in Seoul, urging North Korea to cease all unlawful activities that threaten regional security. North Korea views such major U.S.-led military drills as rehearsals for invasion and has consistently argued that its pursuit of nuclear weapons is a defensive measure against U.S. military threats.

Read also: Moscow presented ‘new approach’ on ending Russia-Ukraine war, Rubio says after talks with Lavrov

Lavrov expressed Russia's understanding of North Korea’s decision to develop nuclear weapons: "The technologies used by North Korea are the result of the work of its own scientists. We respect North Korea’s aspirations and understand the reasons why it is pursuing nuclear development," Lavrov said, according to Russia's state-owned TASS news agency.

During their meeting, Choe Son Hui reiterated North Korea’s "unconditional" support for Russia’s war with Ukraine. Lavrov, in turn, reiterated Russia’s gratitude for North Korean troops who helped repel Ukraine's surprise cross-border incursion in Russia's Kursk border region.

The meeting took place in Wonsan city, known for its recently opened mammoth beach resort, which North Korea claims can accommodate nearly 20,000 people. At the start of his meeting with Choe, Lavrov added that he is "...sure that Russian tourists will be increasingly eager to come here. We will do everything we can to facilitate this, creating conditions for this, including air travel," as per the Russian Foreign Ministry.

The Wonsan-Kalma tourist zone is central to Kim Jong Un’s strategy to boost tourism as a means of improving the country’s struggling economy. However, the future prospects for the complex remain uncertain, as North Korea shows no immediate signs of fully reopening its borders to Western tourists.

Read also: Analysis: Russia is stepping up attacks. Allies are stepping back. What happens to Ukraine next?


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President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Defense Minister Rustem Umerov on July 11, adding afterward that Ukraine requires new steps in managing its defense sector.

Zelensky clarified that his discussions with Umerov focused on "changes in state institutions," emphasizing that Ukraine "requires more positive momentum in relations with the United States, alongside new steps in managing the nation's defense sector." Zelensky announced via his official Telegram channel that corresponding decisions would be made public soon.

The announcement comes amid broader speculation of significant personnel changes within Ukraine's government. Earlier, Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha said that Zelensky plans to replace representatives in all G7 and G20 countries. Bloomberg reported on July 7 that Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova who has held the post since 2021 was slated for dismissal.

On July 10, during a press conference in Rome, Zelensky confirmed he was considering appointing Defense Minister Rustem Umerov as Ukraine’s next ambassador to the U.S.

Among other candidates reportedly considered for the U.S. ambassadorial role were incumbent Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Justice Olha Stefanishyna, and Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko.

Zelensky articulated the need for a strong ambassador to the U.S., one "to be strong and to be in the context of the most important thing, in the context of strengthening Ukraine — through weapons, first of all. Therefore, one of my ideas is that it can be Ukraine's defense minister."

A source familiar with the matter told the Kyiv Independent on July 7 that the possibility of a new ambassador was discussed during a recent phone call between Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump. According to this source, Kyiv raised the topic, suggesting the change could be "useful for both sides," and noted that multiple "strong candidates" were in consideration.

Despite the potential change, Zelensky expressed gratitude for Markarova's service: "I am grateful to Oksana Markarova... I can't tell you what will be the continuation of her work, a lot depends on her... I would like her to continue working in Ukraine."

Umerov was appointed Ukraine’s defense minister in September 2023.

Prior to this role, he served as a member of parliament, headed the State Property Fund, and was a key member of Ukraine’s delegation to negotiations with Russia at the outset of the full-scale invasion in 2022. When direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow resumed in 2025, Umerov led the Ukrainian delegation in two rounds of negotiations.

Read also: Ukraine’s top anti-corruption activist faces charges in case his team calls political vendetta


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Russian President Vladimir Putin has privately signaled support for a nuclear deal that would prevent Iran from enriching uranium, according to sources familiar with discussions who spoke to Axios.

This position, conveyed to both U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian officials, marks a notable shift given Russia's historical public advocacy for Iran's right to enrich.

The change in Moscow's private stance comes in the wake of the recent 12-day war between Israel and Iran. According to three European officials and one Israeli official with knowledge of the issue, Moscow has encouraged Iran to agree to "zero enrichment."

Two sources further indicated that the Russian government briefed the Israeli government on Putin's position regarding Iran's uranium enrichment, with a senior Israeli official confirming, "We know that this is what Putin told the Iranians."

Putin reportedly conveyed this position in calls last week with Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron. President Trump has publicly indicated his desire for a new nuclear deal with Iran, and sources suggest that if negotiations commence in the coming weeks, a demand for zero uranium enrichment on Iranian soil will be a key U.S. requirement. Iran, however, has long maintained that it must retain the ability to enrich uranium under any agreement.

Sources tell Axios that Putin and other Russian officials have communicated their support for a "zero enrichment" deal to the Iranians multiple times over the last few weeks. One European official with direct knowledge of the discussions noted, "Putin would support zero enrichment. He encouraged the Iranians to work towards that in order to make negotiations with the Americans more favorable. The Iranians said they won't consider it."

This private position from Putin is particularly intriguing given the extensive support Iran has provided to Russia during its ongoing war with Ukraine, including hundreds of attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles. During and after the 12-day war with Israel, Iranians reportedly expressed disappointment that Russia did not offer significant support beyond public statements.

Despite the current friction, the Russians have publicly and privately indicated their willingness to remove Iran's highly enriched uranium if a deal is reached. Sources familiar with the matter say Russia has offered to supply Iran with 3.67% uranium for nuclear power and small quantities of 20% enriched uranium for the Tehran research reactor and the production of nuclear isotopes.

Meanwhile, White House envoy Steve Witkoff has been in discussions with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi about resuming nuclear negotiations. While a meeting in Oslo was initially considered for the coming days, sources suggest both Iranian officials and Witkoff have cooled on the idea and are now seeking an alternative venue.

Read also: Analysis: Russia is stepping up attacks. Allies are stepping back. What happens to Ukraine next?


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Ukrainian soldiers successfully destroyed a crew of Russian drone operators with FPV drones, those directly involved in the fatal attack on a child in Kherson Oblast on July 9, Ukraine's General Staff reported on July 11.

The attack which struck the village of Pravdyne in Kherson Oblast killed a one-year-old boy named Dmytro and injured his grandmother. The strike was carried out by a Russian kamikaze drone of the Molniya type, which directly hit the courtyard of a residential building.

The southern Ukrainian city of Kherson and its surrounding region has frequently come under Russian fire since Ukrainian forces liberated the city from occupation in November 2022. Russian troops continue to routinely attack the area with artillery and drones from across the Dnipro River.

Following the attack, intelligence from the Defense Forces of Ukraine established that the drone had been launched from the occupied city of Hola Prystan.

During a subsequent operation, the Ukrainian military identified the Russian drone operating crew's precise location: a five-story non-residential building situated in the center of Hola Prystan. Intelligence determined that the drones had been launched from within this structure.

The Ukrainian military deployed five FPV drones, four of which precisely impacted the target, according to the General Staff. Post-operation monitoring has revealed no further drone launches originating from the facility.

Regional Governor Oleksandr Prokudin responded to the operation on July 11: "Dmytro should never have been a target. I thank our soldiers for their just retribution. No occupier who brought death and destruction to our land will escape punishment."

Read also: Analysis: Russia is stepping up attacks. Allies are stepping back. What happens to Ukraine next?


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A sudden legal action by the authorities against one of Ukraine's most prominent anti-corruption activists has sent shockwaves through the country's civil society.

Vitaliy Shabunin, the chair of the Anti-Corruption Action Center (AntAC) NGO's executive board and current member of the Armed Forces, was charged on July 11 with evading military service and fraud — an accusation his team rejects.

As law enforcement agents raided his military posting in Kharkiv Oblast and his family home in Kyiv, the case fueled concerns over government pressure on civil society and anti-corruption efforts.

"Taking advantage of the war, Volodymyr Zelensky is taking the first but confident steps towards corrupt authoritarianism," Shabunin said on Telegram in his first public message since the charges were pressed.

Daria Kaleniuk, executive director of AntAC, called the accusations raised against Shabunin "absurd."

Talking to the Kyiv Independent, Kaleniuk described the case as a "vendetta" for what "Vitaliy Shabunin and our organization are doing and will keep doing about corruption and wrongdoing of authorities."

The State Bureau of Investigation has denied any connection between the case and Shabunin's work.

"I would like to immediately note that the charges are in no way related to (Shabunin's) public activity," the bureau's spokesperson, Tetiana Sapian, said on air on national television.

What is Shabunin accused of?

The State Bureau of Investigations accused Shabunin of "systematically evading military service," among other related charges.

In its July 11 press release, the agency claimed that after beginning military service in 2022, the activist "did not appear at his post for a long time" and avoided service under the guise of "business trips" and work in civilian institutions.

The investigation has been ongoing since December 2023.

The accusations concern a criminal case involving Viktor Yushko, a serviceman and former commander of the 207th battalion of the territorial defense of Kyiv, where Shabunin served at the beginning of the full-scale war.

Yushko is facing charges that he abused his position to issue orders for fictitious business trips for military personnel in his unit, including Shabunin.

A photo released by the State Bureau of Investigations on July 11, 2025, of searches at Vitaliy Shabunin's military post in Kharkiv Oblast. (State Bureau of Investigations)

According to the bureau, Shabunin also stands accused of fraud for taking a monthly military allowance of Hr 50,000 ($1,200) while absent from his unit.

The investigators further said that Shabunin illegally used an SUV car imported into Ukraine as humanitarian aid for his personal needs without proper registration or relevant legal grounds.

He faces up to 10 years in prison if convicted.

"The State Bureau of Investigation emphasizes: the law should be the same for everyone, regardless of position, public status, or public activity," the bureau said in a statement.

"Patriotic slogans cannot be a cover for abuses, and true service to the state is manifested not in loud statements, but in compliance with the law."

How does AntAC respond?

Speaking to the Kyiv Independent on July 12, Kaleniuk dismissed the charges, highlighting several discrepancies.

AntAC's director said the charges of evading military service stem from Shabunin's 2022 secondment to the National Agency on Corruption Prevention, Ukraine's anti-corruption body.

During this period, she noted, he was actively involved in developing anti-corruption measures related to defense procurement.

On its Telegram channel, AntAC stressed that Shabunin's temporary assignment, which took place between September 2022 and February 2023, was legitimate and given to him as an order that he could not legally ignore.

His team further said that Shabunin participated in the defense of Kyiv in 2022 and subsequently served in the Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts.

AntAC also rejected claims that Shabunin illegally received combat payments, explaining that he was simply earning a regular salary as a soldier.

While the investigators accuse Shabunin of "fraudulently" incurring the state loss of Hr 224,250 (around $5,370), AntAC said the amount is actually his official military salary, with taxes and other fees included.

It is also a common and fully legitimate practice that Ukrainian soldiers receive older cars donated by volunteers, the organization said.

"The interesting fact is that this car was not mentioned in the notice, but was mentioned in public communication of the State Bureau of Investigations," Kaleniuk pointed out.

Read also: Analysis: Ahead of Trump’s ‘major’ Russia announcement, what will happen next to Ukraine?

The AntAC director also highlighted violations during the July 11 raids. The searches at Shabunin's military posting took place without the presence of an attorney and without a court order, she said, adding that the activist's phone was seized to gain access to his personal data.

A day before the raid, Shabunin said he was reassigned from his position in Kharkiv to a front-line brigade — a move that, according to Kaleniuk, made it easier to carry out the search outside of proper procedures.

According to Shabunin, the searches lasted 15 hours from 2 p.m. on July 11 until 5 a.m. on July 12.

A separate raid was carried out at Shabunin's home in Kyiv in the presence of his wife, two children, and a grandfather, once again without the presence of a lawyer, Kaleniuk said.

The officers "have taken away Vitaliy's wife's phone and even the phone and tablets of Vitaliy's young children," said Kaleniuk, who was present at the search.

AntAC's director said Shabunin managed to contact the team only on the morning of July 12. He has not been detained but awaits a hearing at the Pechersk court in Kyiv, which will decide on a preventive measure.

'Vendetta' for exposing government wrongdoings

Shabunin has said he has repeatedly faced pressure from the authorities as a retribution for his work, attributing it to the President's Office and its controversial deputy head, Oleh Tatarov.

Tatarov, a powerful but divisive figure in Ukrainian politics, was charged with bribery before joining the presidential administration, but law enforcement agencies obstructed the corruption case against him and eventually dropped it.

Talking to the Kyiv Independent, Kaleniuk also pointed to a smear campaign by President's Office-linked Telegram channels aimed at Shabunin.

"(The President's Office), through the Tatarov-controlled State Bureau of Investigation and anonymous Telegram channels, seeks to turn Vitaliy Shabunin into a 'tax evader' and 'swindler,'" AntAC said in a column published in the Ukrainian media.

Kaleniuk also believes that it is no coincidence that the charges came shortly after Ruslan Kravchenko — described as a Zelensky loyalist — was appointed as the new Prosecutor General. AntAC has criticized his appointment, as Kravchenko failed to meet ethics and integrity standards during earlier contests for law enforcement jobs.

President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak (R) and his controversial deputy Oleh Tatarov attend a graduation ceremony for police academies in Kyiv on April 12, 2023. (Kaniuka Ruslan / Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images)

The Kyiv Independent has reached out to Shabunin, the President's Office, and the State Bureau of Investigation for comment.

In another recent case seen as a growing executive overreach and interference, the government blocked the appointment of a new head of the Bureau of Economic Security, a controversial agency with ties to Tatarov.

The developments have fueled mounting concerns that Ukraine's anti-graft reforms are being quietly rolled back under the cover of wartime.

In his July 12 post, Shabunin decried several controversial steps taken by Zelensky, the President's Office, and the Servant of the People's party, including a new bill on corruption in defense procurement.

The bill seeks to exempt from criminal liability companies implementing defense contracts with the government and enterprises included in a secret list compiled by the Defense Ministry.

Anti-corruption activists say the bill would jeopardize the rule of law, result in increased corruption and potentially undermine Ukraine's defense capabilities.

Anti-corruption activists claim authorities attempt to stifle critics of the bill.

Read also: Ukraine’s new top prosecutor known for high-profile cases, seen as Zelensky loyalist


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Slovakia hopes to strike a deal with the European Commission and EU partners on securing guarantees related to ending Russian gas imports by July 15, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said on July 12, according to Reuters.

Fico's comments come as the European Union prepares to approve the 18th sanctions package against Russia, hoping to lift Slovakia's veto.

The proposed sanctions, presented on June 10, target Moscow's energy revenues, banks, and military industries in response to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

While Fico said the sanctions package itself is not objectionable, his government has blocked the proposal over concerns about a separate European Commission plan to fully phase out Russian gas imports by 2028.

Unlike the gas phase-out, which can pass with majority support, EU sanctions require unanimous consent. Slovakia has effectively tied the two issues together by blocking the sanctions until its energy concerns are addressed.

"We need to win something in this fight, though it will not be a 100-0 result," Fico said. "We want political commitments, guarantees from partners and the Commission that this problem will not remain only on Slovakia's back."

Fico, who met with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on July 11 and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on July 12, said discussions remain ongoing. Unresolved issues include capping transit fees that Slovakia would have to pay for importing non-Russian gas via alternative routes.

Read also: ‘These were not negotiations’ — Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister on Istanbul talks with Russia in exclusive interview

Slovakia currently receives part of its gas through a long-term contract with Russian energy giant Gazprom, which is valid until 2034 and secures roughly 3.5 billion cubic meters of gas annually, according to Reuters. Since Ukraine halted the transit of Russian gas through its territory at the end of 2024, Slovakia has relied on deliveries via the TurkStream pipeline and Hungary.

If Slovakia lifts its veto, the sanctions could be approved as soon as July 15 during a meeting of EU foreign ministers.

Fico reversed Slovakia's previous pro-Ukraine policies, halted military aid to Kyiv, and repeatedly questioned the effectiveness of sanctions on Russia after winning elections in 2023.

Relations between Slovakia and Ukraine have also deteriorated. On June 28, Fico told Slovak broadcaster STVR that he has no intention of meeting President Volodymyr Zelensky, claiming Zelensky "hates" him and that he prefers to work with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

"My meeting with President Zelensky has no significance," he added.

Fico also cited energy costs, saying: "I'm the prime minister of the Slovak Republic, and my task is to do everything to ensure that gas prices in Slovakia do not rise because of Ukraine."

While Fico has said Ukraine's EU membership could ultimately benefit Slovakia, he has deferred top-level bilateral talks to Slovak President Peter Pellegrini.

Read also: Analysis: Russia is stepping up attacks. Allies are stepping back. What happens to Ukraine next?


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A former fighter with Russia's Wagner mercenary group has requested asylum in Finland after illegally crossing the border near the town of Kitee, Finnish broadcaster Yle reported on July 12.

Wagner Group fighters, including those linked to far-right paramilitary units, have been central to some of Russia's most notorious campaigns in Ukraine. Thousands of former convicts joined Wagner in 2022 after being promised amnesty in exchange for service.

The man, identified only as Yevgeny, reportedly served in a Wagner assault unit and fought in eastern Ukraine, including in Bakhmut and around Selydove. Finnish authorities apprehended him on June 17 shortly after he entered the country near Vaylivaara, a forested area not protected by border fencing, Yle said.

According to the outlet, Finnish border guards detected the man through sensor alarms and detained him immediately after the crossing. He is now in a temporary detention facility and has applied for international protection.

Yevgeny had previously been featured by Russian state media as a model soldier. Since late 2024, he has been publicly criticizing the Russian military leadership.

In a video published on June 30, apparently filmed after his arrival in Finland, he accused Russian commanders of abandoning their soldiers "to rot in the fields" and deceiving the families of the dead.

Though Finnish authorities have not officially confirmed the man's identity, the Central Criminal Police (KRP) said they are conducting a preliminary investigation into a person who reportedly served with Wagner and crossed the border illegally. At this time, Finnish officials have no evidence linking Yevgeny to war crimes.

Yle reported that Yevgeny had previously been convicted of robbing a jewelry store in Omsk in 2023, receiving a 6-year sentence. He was later recruited to fight in Ukraine, part of a broader Russian practice of offering convicts reduced sentences in exchange for military service.

Legal experts say Ukraine could request his extradition, though this would depend on whether Kyiv presents sufficient evidence. If Yevgeny commanded a military unit, he could be held accountable for the actions of his subordinates.

In March, a Finnish court sentenced Russian neo-Nazi mercenary Yan Petrovsky to life in prison for war crimes committed in Luhansk Oblast in 2014. Petrovsky, co-leader of the Rusich paramilitary unit linked to Wagner, was convicted of participating in the execution of Ukrainian soldiers.

Prosecutors presented video evidence of the killings, which the court deemed sufficient despite Petrovsky's denials. Ukraine had requested his extradition, but Finnish courts rejected the request over human rights concerns.

Wagner mercenaries played a critical role in Russia's capture of Bakhmut in May 2023, suffering enormous losses. Estimates suggest as many as 20,000 fighters — many of them former prisoners — died in the battle.

Following a failed rebellion in June 2023, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a suspicious plane crash two months later. After the mutiny, Wagner fighters were folded into official Russian military structures, including the National Guard and Chechen units.

According to Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), Wagner veterans top the Kremlin's wish list during prisoner exchanges. "They have indeed been working hard on their return," HUR spokesperson Andrii Yusov said in April.

Read also: ‘These were not negotiations’ — Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister on Istanbul talks with Russia in exclusive interview


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Amid ever-escalating aerial assaults, accelerating Russian advances in the east, and the weariness that comes with nearly 3.5 years of war, all eyes in Ukraine are once again focused upon one man — U.S. President Donald Trump.

"I think I'll have a major statement to make on Russia on Monday," Trump said in an interview with NBC News on July 10, the latest development in a tortuously long and so far wholly ineffective U.S.-led peace process.

Short of a massive injection of military aid, or crushing sanctions on Moscow, there's little that Trump could announce that could help Ukraine bring Russia's full-scale invasion to a swift end on terms favorable to Kyiv.

Yet Ukraine has no choice but to play along, a delicate dance with its biggest backer requiring just enough coercion to get Trump to play ball, but not so much that he walks away entirely.

The stakes for Ukraine are existential, and the turbulence of Kyiv-Washington relations since Trump took office means the country — and the rest of Europe — has had to imagine and plan for a life without the U.S., but next door to a newly-emboldened and increasingly militarized Russia.

Key Points

Ukraine adapts to shifting U.S. stance — Despite signs that the U.S. could disengage from the defense of Ukraine entirely, Kyiv has gone to great lengths to keep Washington on board. Relations with the Trump administration are currently at a relative high but questions remain about the extent of support for Ukraine, and the willingness to apply pressure on Russia.Russia's escalating aggression — Russia isn't pretending to placate the U.S.-led peace process anymore and has openly declared its intention to continue the war and believes it can win. This has been accompanied by a dramatic escalation of the aerial war.The battlefield — Russia's grinding offensive in eastern Ukraine is gathering pace despite ever-mounting losses. The prospect of reduced or halted U.S. military aid puts a spotlight on Ukraine's domestic weapons production and asymmetric warfare. There are many positive signs, but significant gaps remain.Europe's response — Rushing to fill the gap being left by a retreating U.S., Europe is racing to ramp up defense production but critics argue the pace is too slow, and the continent is simply not capable of defending itself.Ukraine's people — Despite the bleak outlook, Ukrainian resistance movements continue their work in occupied territories, and polls indicate a large majority believe the country must continue fighting against Russia's full-scale invasion regardless of U.S. support.

Trump bored and stepping away

After Kyiv’s relations with the Trump administration hit rock bottom with the Oval Office argument on Feb. 28 and the subsequent cutting off of military aid and intelligence to Ukraine, developments over spring gave cause for faint hope that Washington would change track.

The key moments came relatively quickly.

In mid-March, a cooler, more calculated Kyiv arrived at a common position with Washington when the foreign ministers of both countries agreed on a joint call for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire to be observed by both sides.

The move broke many of the taboos in Ukraine around a ceasefire without U.S. security guarantees, seen as the basis for a lasting peace. But in return, it aligned Washington with the clear understanding that in rejecting this simple demand, Russia was clearly the main obstacle to stopping the fighting.

"Zelensky has done a good job of managing the personality and the individual that is President Trump," Tom Brewer, a former U.S. Army officer and Nebraska State Senator who has consistently lobbied for more support for Ukraine in the Republican Party, told the Kyiv Independent.

"My concern is that if you surround yourself with people that are anti-Ukraine, they tend to influence that way also."

U.S. President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky meet during the NATO Heads of State and Government Summit in The Hague, Netherlands on June 25, 2025. (Anadolu via Getty Images)

Since then, Kyiv has done nearly everything possible to reinforce this position — signing the one-sided minerals deal with the U.S., regular flattering of Trump in public statements, and the readiness to engage in theatrical peace talks in Istanbul where the Russian delegation simply repeated demands for Ukraine to essentially capitulate.

Through all this, the only thing that mattered was Trump’s final decision — whether to either put hard pressure on Russia and compel it to stop its war in Ukraine, or disengage from the process entirely.

From new military aid packages and tightened sanctions to secondary tariffs, potential U.S. leverage on Russia is well-documented, but the willingness to employ it is something else.

"They (the Trump administration) have got two courses of action here," Brewer said, adding: "They either embrace Ukraine, give them the resources they need to be able to sustain the fight and be in a position to eventually put an end to the war, or they walk away." As spring passed, despite sporadic public statements indicating Trump’s patience with Putin was wearing thin — like the president’s "Vladimir, STOP!" Truth Social post after another deadly attack on Kyiv in April — no moves akin to real action were made.

While media, pro-Ukraine Republicans, and supporters of Ukraine across the world grasped at every moment Trump criticized Putin, the U.S. leader, echoed by Vice-President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, started saying the quiet part out loud — that Washington could step away from active peace efforts if it seemed the sides’ demands were too far apart.

"I think in a sense, the decision has already been made by Trump not to apply pressure," Eric Ciaramella, senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Kyiv Independent.

"He's communicated that in just about every different possible way, that he doesn't see it as productive."

For months, Trump instead chose a third path — to continue in circles, ignoring Ukraine bar the occasional comment, and avoiding any responsibility for bringing peace to the war he originally said he could end in 24 hours.

In June, as focus shifted to the Middle East and Trump’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, key summits came and went at the G7 and NATO.

The meetings brought varying optics but the same end result: little interest in progress — let alone progress itself — towards a tougher U.S. position on Russia.

"This administration is extremely performative," Ciamarella said. "And I think there's an extreme lack of expertise on the region, on the war, but also on how to create policy.

After the Pentagon announced the cancellation of ammunition for artillery and air defense deliveries to Ukraine — those already planned and funded under the President Joe Biden administration — the question looked to be resolved beyond doubt.

The aid freeze ultimately proved to be a false alarm, and in the weeks following, Trump’s rhetoric towards Putin has soured further, but still, no signs of a hard policy shift are evident.

One last possible test will be the Congressional bill on anti-Russia sanctions proposed by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, which calls for aggressive U.S. tariffs on countries like China and India if they continue buying Russian oil.

But with the Iran-Israel conflict pushing up world oil prices already, and Trump pushing Graham to water down the bill and add a presidential waiver, the chances of it translating into action are slim.

President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to the media during a press briefing after his phone talks with the U.S. President Donald Trump on May 19, 2025. (Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images)

Ultimately, increased pressure on Moscow requires pro-active, calculated decisions from a U.S. president who has not only repeated Russian propaganda narratives on the war, but has shown little interest in the basic rules-based world order that the defense of Ukraine is paramount to upholding.

"He will answer things in a roundabout way and kind of try to keep people guessing," Ciamarella said. "But I think Trump's made his position pretty clear — he doesn’t care."

"Russia is bombing the hell out of Ukrainian cities every day, and he doesn't have anything to say about it."

Russia's position

After months of paying lip service to the U.S.-led peace process, Russia is now saying the quiet part out loud — it has no intention of stopping its war or agreeing to a ceasefire and believes it can win.

"We do not see any necessity to stop," Russia's ambassador to the United Kingdom, Andrei Kelin, said in a June 18 interview with CNN.

"We continue to acquire more and more (territory). For Ukraine there is a choice — either they will take our conditions right now… or we will continue this drive and Ukraine will have to surrender under much worse conditions."

Just two days later in a speech in St. Petersburg, Russian President Vladimir Putin went one step further, declaring that "all of Ukraine" belonged to Russia.

"Wherever the foot of a Russian soldier steps is Russian land," Putin said, directly implying Russia's intention to continue occupying more than just the five Ukrainian regions that Moscow has illegally laid claim to — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, as well as the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.

Across Ukraine, the increasingly aggressive official statements about Moscow's final territorial ambitions have been accompanied by a dramatic escalation in Russia's aerial war, with cities far from the front lines facing unprecedented levels of drone and missile bombardment.

Number of Russian drones launched against Ukraine in May 2024 — June 2025. (Nizar al-Rifai/The Kyiv Independent)

"You lie down, look into the abyss of night, and hear the loudest attack, and you think the end has already come," Hryhorii Matsebok, a 47-year-old artist, told the Kyiv Independent after the latest strike on the capital on July 10.

Ukraine's position

For Ukraine's president, keeping Trump onside and effectively conveying what is at stake for his country remains paramount.

"For us, it’s a priority to maintain U.S. support," President Volodymyr Zelensky said last month during a closed-door meeting with journalists attended by the Kyiv Independent.

After a noticeable pause when asked what would happen if Trump disengaged from Ukraine's defense against Russia's full-scale invasion, he voiced hope that Trump would make "the historically correct choice" to stand with Kyiv.

"Of course, there are European countries that have already signaled they will stand with Ukraine even in the most difficult situation — and the most difficult situation, in my opinion, would be one without America's involvement," he added.

During the two weeks since, there have been some positive signs — Trump's public statements recently have softened towards Ukraine and hardened against Russia and its president.

At the same time as announcing his "major statement" on Russia next week, Trump also said he was "disappointed in Russia," but added that "we'll see what happens over the next couple of weeks."

Trump also announced a new arrangement whereby NATO would collectively pay for new weapons to be sent to Ukraine.

But the discussions currently are centered on relatively tiny amounts of military aid — like the promised 10 Patriot interceptor missiles, a far cry from the multi-billion dollar packages sent during President Biden's time in office.

"It’s not enough to defeat Russia and to return the occupied territories," Oleksandr Merezhko, a Ukrainian lawmaker and chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, told the Kyiv Independent.

"I’m not even sure that this aid is enough to compel Putin to start serious negotiations about a ceasefire. The key issue is how to create at least parity between Russia and Ukraine in terms of weaponry."

A map of Ukraine and its Russian-occupied territory. (Lisa Kukharska / The Kyiv Independent)

For any hope of this happening, Ukraine has no choice but to keep the U.S. onside. But if Kyiv has learned one thing this year, it's that a positive relationship with the U.S. president can change in a second, and nothing can be taken for granted.

Speaking of current Kyiv-Washington relations, some observers still point to the 2019 impeachment scandal, believing it laid the groundwork for rocky relations between Trump and Zelensky, fueled by the U.S. president’s lingering resentment.

"It’s almost impossible to change Trump’s bias against Ukraine," Merezhko said.

"Still, Zelensky has no choice but to try to build at least some kind of constructive relationship with Trump. The Americans have the weapons we need, ones that the Europeans simply don’t have."

The battlefield

Amongst a sea of falsehoods and propaganda narratives, one statement made consistently by Moscow on their vision for the end of the war is coldly honest — that any peace plan must reflect the "realities on the ground."

Translated, there is ultimately no factor more crucial for the end of Russia’s war than the dynamic on the battlefield.As illusions of negotiated peace and a change of heart in the White House fade, Russia’s summer offensive campaign has stepped up a gear on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine.

Evacuation of civilians from the city by the forces of the National Police of Ukraine "White Angels" unit on June 19, 2025, in Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images)

After winter conditions and the exhaustion of Russian offensive momentum saw Ukrainian lines largely stabilize in March, Russian advances have picked up again sharply over May and June.

According to figures published by Ukrainian open-source mapping project Deep State, Russian territorial gains amounted to approximately 449 square kilometers in May, up 253% from the April figure.

Russian territorial gains in Ukraine in 2024-2025. (Nizar al-Rifai/The Kyiv Independent)

In the grinding positional fight of Russia’s war in Ukraine, these numbers reflect a certain level of disorder, if not collapse, in given sectors of the front line.

Fueled by a steady stream of contract recruits and backed by the deadly choke hold of drones on Ukrainian infantry and logistics, Russian forces have been able to push hard on the weak points in Ukrainian lines, defended by less combat-effective, more poorly-coordinated brigades.

As of July, the hotspots of the front line remain in Donetsk Oblast.

In the most dramatic push of the spring/summer campaign, Russian forces have flooded forward between the key cities of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, threatening both with gradual, partial encirclements that could make their defense untenable. Meanwhile, gains in the south of the oblast have brought Russia’s ground war to a new Ukrainian region — Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

After gains sped up in June, Russia’s cross-border offensive on Sumy Oblast has slowed, but pressure there continues to create dilemmas for the overstretched Ukrainian defense, military analyst Rob Lee, Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program, told the Kyiv Independent.

Though a shortage of U.S.-made equipment like the Patriot air defense systems raises alarms for the defense of cities and critical infrastructure from Russian missiles, the looming end of U.S. military aid deliveries is now less critical for Ukraine on the battlefield itself.

"If Russia can keep pushing closer to the city of Sumy and place it at greater risk, it could give them greater leverage during negotiations and force Ukraine to divert more forces from Donetsk," Lee said.

Spurred by the shell shortage brought on by the Republican blockade of the last U.S. aid package last year, Ukraine invested heavily in domestic production of strike drones of all shapes and sizes, while putting their best drone units on a path of constant expansion.

The result — a consistent, mobile source of home-grown firepower which can be deployed to stop Russian offensives in their tracks, and which greatly reduces Ukraine’s dependence on artillery ammunition.

"Some of the key metrics for assessing combat power from 2022-2023 are less significant today," Lee said."Artillery is no longer the greatest casualty-producing weapon in the war, so the relative artillery fire rate is not as significant a metric as it once was."

Burnt cars lie in the street on June 19, 2025 in Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images)

Since the beginning of 2024, Ukraine’s main battlefield challenge has been not a lack of weapons and ammunition, but the ability to field enough combat-effective manpower to cover an active front line of over 1,200 kilometers.

Meanwhile, going forward, lacking the ability to conduct large-scale maneuver breakthroughs, Russia’s prospects of continuing its advance will rest on the continued ability to feed new recruits into seemingly endless infantry-based assaults.

Over 2025, despite Russian casualties surging past one million as per Ukrainian figures, tens of thousands of Russian men continue to enlist, with Zelensky putting the figure at 45-50,000 in late May.

Without the luxury of such flows of fresh expendable infantry and Moscow showing no signs of stopping, Kyiv must do everything it can to wage the most efficient attritional war possible.

Over the rest of the summer and autumn campaign, which side that attrition equation favors could well be the difference between war and peace.

"If, by the winter, Russia struggles to improve its position on the battlefield, it may decide that the costs of continuing the war are not worth future likely marginal gains," Lee said.

"Conversely, if Russia achieves greater battlefield successes this summer or it appears Ukraine is struggling to sustain the war, then Russia’s leadership may decide the situation still favors them and keep pressing."

The weaponry

Ukraine’s domestic arms industry is in a tough spot, but it’s not an unprecedented tough spot.

The pullback in U.S. political support for Ukraine under the Trump administration has been tough on Ukrainian morale, but has belied the fact that material aid had already slowed to a crawl by the time he took office.

An unfortunate and undeniable truth is that Russia has successfully scaled its military-industrial complex into a behemoth — at the expense of Russian society, but, unlike Ukraine’s Western allies, with an unambiguous commitment to fueling the war machine on the other side of the line.

Russian monthly production of the various types of missiles according to data obtained by HUR and shown to the Kyiv Independent in June 2025. (Nizar al-Rifai/The Kyiv Independent)

Ukraine’s key advantage remains flexibility and adaptability. Ukraine keeps the details of many parts of productive capacity a closely held secret, for obvious reasons. Major factories face constant bombardment. Much new production happens in small, unmarked and, if Ukraine’s defense forces have their way, unidentifiable locations.

Distributed production may not match post-Soviet megafactories out in Siberia for scale, but it keeps producers running.

Raw materials for defense of the type that absolutely require economies of scale continue to come from outside of Ukraine itself, but they do keep coming.

Production of domestic defense darlings like drones and electronic warfare devices is, those involved say, higher than ever. The problem remains funding established production lines.

Ammunition remains a sticking point. Supplies of gunpowder and explosives with which to fill ordnance depend on chemical imports that are limited. Absent artillery, Ukraine’s ability to blow up Russian entrenchments and make major assaults remains limited.

"It’s collectively important for us to have more options for production of explosives," said Kateryna Mykhalko, the director general at Tech Force in UA, a trade association for Ukrainian defense companies, adding that while there are "hundreds" of drone production facilities in Ukraine, there are only "dozens" of explosives manufacturers.

Nonetheless, Ukraine’s method of defense remains remarkably resilient. FPV pilots hold their ground against a mass of Russian soldiers testing the line, thanks to that same remarkable homegrown supply of drones

Despite Russia’s relative success in industrializing electronic-warfare-proof fiber-optic drones, many of their offensive pushes to seize land rely on throwing under equipped soldiers out for the slaughter.

In Sumy Oblast, for example, this includes rag-tag gangs of recent recruits thrown on quad bikes, electric scooters, or sometimes just hobbling on foot into the remnants of Ukrainian villages to secure any sort of position they can. This typically means a march to their deaths by FPV.

Another video of Russian soldiers using electric scooters. https://t.co/iJBUo2Iafc pic.twitter.com/yg6irsVOTS

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 30, 2024

An underreported area of development is Ukrainian mid-range strikes. With Ukrainian FPVs clearing out Russian equipment for miles behind the front line, Russia has moved its most valuable kit — including armored vehicles, large electronic warfare equipment, and air defense units like the S-300, S-400s, or Buk systems — further to the rear.

Ukrainian drone producers are hastening to extend their range beyond the radio horizon, the point at which direct signals communication fails due to the simple geometry of the earth, around 40 kilometers.

Deep-strike drones rely on more boutique means of steering and control, including the pirating of Russian SIM cards and subtle jacking of civilian cellular networks.

For the more immediate needs behind the radio horizon, they are experimenting with signal-repeating drones that go into the sky and can act as midway points to control cheaper strike drones beyond the radio horizon. Scalable success in the production of such drones would force Russian vehicles ever further away from being useful to support troops in the frontline.

In good news for Ukrainian kit, the Americans were showing more in the way of support for Ukraine at the recent NATO summit than they have since the very public falling out with Zelensky in the Oval Office.

"He couldn’t have been nicer," Trump said of a meeting with Zelensky. "He is fighting a brave battle, it's a tough battle."

Air defense is a critical area for Ukraine, which is bootstrapping some faculty at shooting down Russian drones and cruise missiles, but isn’t yet capable of mounting a reliable defense against Russian ballistic missiles.

A fire breaks out over the city during Russian air attack on July 10, 2025 in Kyiv, Ukraine. (Ivan Antypenko/Suspilne Ukraine/JSC UA:PB via Getty Images)

Trump — after a brief and unsettling pause — has teased earlier this week a renewed supply of Patriot missiles that would be a small but vital boost to Ukraine’s ability to protect itself from the Russian aerial threat.

The new generation of Ukrainian defense producers are well accustomed to setting up shop in short-term facilities with limited machining tools, thanks to repeated Russian attacks on factories and workshops within Ukraine.

Given the resources, space, and legal authorization, they are likely to get production rolling off the line quicker than their larger but bulkier European partners would necessarily believe possible.

The asymmetric war

During the David and Goliath battle against Russia's military and manpower superiority, there's no denying that Ukraine has honed the art of asymmetric warfare.

Nearly every part of Moscow's war machine has come under attack, even if located deep inside Russian territory — fighter jets, military helicopters, large vessels of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Russian military production facilities such as the Shahed-style drone factory in Yelabuga, infrastructure facilities for the delivery of military cargo such as the Crimean bridge, and oil refineries.

Not to mention the audacious June Operation Spiderweb targeting Russia's strategic bombers and surveillance aircraft deep inside Russian territory.

Targets in Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb in June 2025. (Nizar al-Rifai/The Kyiv Independent)

Some of the results have been strategically spectacular — Ukraine has managed to put Russia's Black Sea Fleet out of action, a third of it destroyed, the rest now contained in the southeastern part of the Black Sea.

Relatively cheap Ukrainian weapons have effectively disabled — and in some cases sunk — multi-million dollar ships.

"The Russian naval forces are locked in harbors. Seven-meter-long Ukrainian (attack) boats have driven warships into ports and cleared the field for the merchant fleet in the Black Sea," a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told Kyiv Independent.

To do this Ukraine has developed the Magura and SeaBabу' sea drones, operated by Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) and the SBU, respectively.

"All the HUR's and SBU boats combined and multiplied by 10 still cost less than construction of a full-fledged combat vessel from scratch. And this is how we 'turned off' the Russian fleet. Not completely destroyed, but almost took it out of the game," the source in the SBU added.

Operation Spiderweb used even cheaper FPV drones — 117 of them carrying explosives attacked Russia's strategic bombers and surveillance aircraft, reportedly causing $7 billion in damage and disabling one third of Russia's cruise missile bombers, and at least one of approximately seven remaining Russian A-50 early warning aircraft.

But experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent said there's only so much Ukraine can achieve with asymmetric drone strikes, no matter how elaborate and spectacular these are.

Particularly in a future without U.S. support, Ukraine needs to focus on another weapon — missiles.

"Drones do cause damage — they can fly into windows at defense factories deep in Russia's rear," Ivan Stupak, a former SBU officer and a former Ukrainian lawmaker, told the Kyiv Independent.

"But let's be honest, 50 kilograms of explosives are just 50 kilograms — 500 kilograms in a missile can make a difference".

President Volodymyr Zelensky (R) and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky in front of the first batch of Ukrainian-made drone missiles Peklo (Ukrainian for "hell"). (Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty Images)

Stupak hopes that a recently-announced initiative with Germany to joint purchase "long-range missiles" made by Ukrainian producers could be a key part of Ukraine's future attack capability.

"I am not saying that it will immediately stop Russia's offensive, but imagine if Ukrainian missiles were fired at the locations of Russian troops in the occupied territories," he said.

"This could seriously affect the course of hostilities," he added.

Until then, Ukraine has no intention of halting the asymmetric tactics it has already honed.

"As long as Russia's criminal genocidal war against Ukraine continues, there is no question of any end to the naval and other campaigns," Andrii Yusov, HUR's spokesperson, told the Kyiv Independent.

"HUR fighters continue their work, including in the Black Sea, to maintain and scale the advantage gained in naval combat over Russia."

Europe starts to think about war

Europe's leaders are scrambling to ready the continent for a potential war with Russia — but critics say the pace is still far too slow to meet not only the scale of the threat, but the grim reality of the situation facing Ukraine.

There are significant positives — at the NATO summit in The Hague last month alliance leaders endorsed a new target of 5% of GDP on defense spending, a level not seen since the last century.

But there are also glaring negatives — a European defense industry simply not capable of filling the gap left by a retreating U.S., and political and military plans completely reliant on the belief that Russia will just stop its war and agree to a ceasefire.

Lithuania's ex-Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said that even the thawing Washington-Kyiv relationship and Trump's hardening stance against Putin are not signs of progress.

"We are still in the same paradigm as before, unfortunately," he told the Kyiv Independent. "And Putin understands and plays the game — if Trump is unhappy there is a statement from the Kremlin and then there is a new two-week deadline."

"And so it goes. The question is — how long can Ukraine hold on like this and how long until Europe understands that it’s Europe’s war?"

President Volodymyr Zelensky, France's President Emmanuel Macron and Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer attend a meeting during the European Political Community (EPC) summit, in Tirana on May 16, 2025. (Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images)

On the defense production front, there is also little to look forward to that is positive.“There's not enough supply to answer the demand,” a senior NATO official told the Kyiv Independent on condition of anonymity, warning that Europe’s defense industry just isn’t up to the task of defending the continent.

And yet, the threat is there.

“If you listen to different sources and intelligence, they are saying that the threat is very real, it is clear that Russia is posing a great threat”, Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, told the Kyiv Independent.

Kallas also warned that Europe still hasn't shaken its peacetime mindset.

"The problem with defense spending is that you need to explain this to people at the time of peace, when it is very hard to understand why we need this," she said.

"But if you need this, it’s already too late."

Europe’s sense of urgency in repelling that threat has been at best confused, at worst complacent.Poland, seen as a "model ally" by top U.S. officials, is at the spearhead of Europe rearmament efforts. Radoslaw Sikorski, Poland’s foreign minister, issued a sharp rebuke to those still dragging their feet.

"Putin has increased his attacks particularly on civilians in Ukraine since President Trump’s peace efforts — and doubled again since the start of the latest hot period of the Middle East crisis," he told the Kyiv Independent.

Poland, along with the Baltic states, have been banging the drum about the Russian threat for years. Having woken up to the threat, Scandinavian countries have also started to rally.

But a collective European response to the scenario no one seems willing to discuss — Russia refusing to stop its war and continuing to take more and more Ukrainian territory — remains frustratingly elusive.

Plans like those announced by Europe's leading countries such as France and the U.K. rely entirely on Russia agreeing to a ceasefire.

With Putin publicly declaring that "all of Ukraine is ours," and only escalating attacks on Ukraine, this appears to be a fantasy and Europe is not in a position to stop it.

"The Russian bet is that they will keep winning slowly at high cost, but they'll keep winning," General Sir Richard Barrons, the U.K.’s former Commander of the Joint Forces Command who oversaw the U.K.’s recent Strategic Defense Review, told the Kyiv Independent.

"And Ukraine will keep losing slowly with a reduced flow of material, and that will lead to an outcome that is more favorable to Russia. I think that's the Russian bet."

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Belgorod Region Governor in Moscow on July 11, 2025. (Mikhail Metzel/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

Without crushing sanctions on Russia or a surge in U.S. weaponry, Kyiv's only remaining hope could be European troops on the ground in Ukraine providing a deterrence force against further Russian aggression — something Barrons said is completely off the table.

"The discussion, which I think is completely naive, is any thought of European or indeed anybody else's forces being in Ukraine without there being a settlement that is based on the consent of both parties," he said.

"It is pointless to talk about putting troops in advance of knowing what those terms are, because nobody will do it. Nobody will do it," he said.

Ukraine’s occupied territories

No matter what happens in capitals across the globe, life under Russian occupation goes on – and so does the resistance.

Russia continues to entrench its control over the occupied territories, persecuting those who are overtly pro-Ukrainian, flooding all Ukrainians with Russian propaganda, and forcing them to obtain Russian passports just to access basic services like medical care.

But regardless of the uncertainty emanating from the outside world, a multitude of Ukrainian resistance movements continue their work — Atesh, Zla Mavka, the Yellow Ribbon movement, and the Crimean Combat Seagulls, to name just a few.

"The U.S. withdrawal of assistance to Ukraine has no impact on our activities. Our movement has never been dependent on external support — we follow solely the position of the Ukrainian government and act in the interests of liberating our lands," an Atesh representative told the Kyiv Independent.

"Our agents will continue to resist the occupation, regardless of the international situation. Resistance to the Russian occupiers existed before foreign aid and will continue even if this aid is completely stopped," they added.

🔥 On Ukraine’s Constitution Day, an Atesh agent sabotaged a rail relay near Yasynuvata. Fuel train delayed — enemy logistics disrupted. Donbas is Ukraine! Contact: @ruslan_atesh_ua #RussianUkrainianWar pic.twitter.com/Dbr0D2AEpS

— ATESH_eng (@atesh_eng) June 28, 2025

Russia currently occupies roughly 20% of Ukraine's territory. This includes the whole of Crimea occupied in 2014 and large parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts.

Moscow illegally declared the annexation of the latter four regions in 2022 and insists on Ukraine's full withdrawal from them as part of a peace deal, even though it does not control them completely.

Despite the bleak outlook, Ukraine's resistance movements have no choice but to fight on or submit to Russia.

"No matter what kind of support Ukraine receives, Zla Mavka will continue to resist. The realities may change, but the fight will persist. Recent news impacts many people morally, but it doesn’t stop them from doing everything they can," an activist from the female resistance movement Zla Mavka told the Kyiv Independent.

"We also understand that this could significantly prolong our liberation. Under the so-called 'ceasefire,' the Russians will feel much more 'at ease' here, so mentally we are already preparing for possible hardships," she added.

"The world may tremble, but we’ll keep doing our part…"

Ukrainian soldiers

Hundreds of miles from Kyiv, and thousands of miles from Washington, Ukraine's soldiers on the front lines are those who bear the brunt of decisions taken in the two capitals.

After nearly 3.5 years of fighting, compounded by manpower and equipment shortages, most are exhausted — but far from beaten.

"I don't want to live by Putin's imperial rules, living like you’re in a prison," Artem, a soldier  from a mechanized brigade, told the Kyiv Independent. Following the security protocols of Ukrainian military, Artem isn't identified by his full name.

"The desire to win and return all the territories taken by Russia is much stronger than fatigue."

Aganiok from the Special Purpose Battalion 'Shkval,' part of Ukraine's 59th Assault Brigade, takes part in a training exercise near Donbas, Ukraine on March 20, 2025 (Thomas Krych/Anadolu via Getty Images)

But there's no denying the front-line situation is currently bleak for Ukraine.

Russia is intensifying its offensive, enduring heavy losses, but still slowly grinding forward. The Ukrainians are just trying to survive and hold onto their positions.

And while lengthy and complex conversations about U.S. military aid play out at the highest diplomatic levels halfway around the world, the motivation of a Ukrainian soldier is often far simpler — to keep themselves and their comrades alive.

Another soldier, also named Artem, a machine gunner in the 80th Air Assault Brigade until he received a service-ending injury in 2024 and has fought since his hometown of Luhansk was occupied in 2014, said it was important for him to pass down the knowledge he learned while in service.

"When the war began, we had a fully equipped, trained contract army," he told the Kyiv Independent.

"Unfortunately, it is the case that a war goes on and people die and die."

The Ukrainian people

A poll conducted in March revealed more than 80% of Ukrainians believe the country must continue fighting no matter what, even if Washington ends all support for Kyiv, and Russian attacks continue to escalate.

War veteran and former prisoner of war (POW) Maksym Kolesnikov said the survey shows "Ukrainians are prepared to hold on despite the intensifying terror against the civilian population."

"Most Ukrainians understand that the consequences of capitulation would be far worse than the attacks," he says.

[Content truncated due to length...]


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Polish President-elect Karol Nawrocki called upon President Volodymyr Zelensky on July 11 to allow full-scale exhumations of Polish victims of the Volyn massacres, according to RMF24, even as the long-stalled process had already resumed in April.

The Volyn (Volhynian) massacres of 1943-1944 took place in the Nazi-occupied territory of what is now western Ukraine during World War II. Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) members killed at least tens of thousands of Poles, while thousands of Ukrainians were killed in retaliation.

Speaking at a ceremony in the eastern Polish city of Chelm marking the 82nd anniversary of the massacres, Nawrocki said the victims "do not cry out for revenge, but for a cross, a grave, and memory," and urged Ukraine to authorize further work across multiple sites.

"Poles are waiting for this truth," Nawrocki said, according to Polish news outlet RMF24.

Nawrocki's remarks follow the restart of exhumations in April at the destroyed village of Puzhnyky in Ukraine's Ternopil Oblast. It was the first such effort since 2017, when Ukraine imposed a moratorium after a wave of vandalism targeting Ukrainian memorials in Poland.

Ukrainian and Polish officials have since announced additional exhumations of Polish soldiers killed during World War II in Zboiska and the nearby district of Pid Holoskom in Lviv Oblast in June.

Nawrocki emphasized his moral obligation to speak for the victims. A historian by profession, the Polish president-elect has long argued that Ukraine should not be allowed into the EU before the Volyn issue is resolved, a view shared by other Polish politicians across the political spectrum.

"As the future president of Poland, I am obliged to speak with their voice. No one will release me from this," he said. The ceremony in Chelm also marked the planned construction of a new museum to commemorate those killed.

Read also: Volhynian Massacre — the Achilles heel of Ukrainian-Polish relations

Ukrainian Ambassador to Poland Vasyl Bodnar, who attended the event, reportedly voiced support for further dialogue and acknowledged the importance of honoring victims on both sides of the historical divide.

"We need to talk about this history openly," he said. "Of course, to call the crime a crime. Apologize and apologize, but also honor the memory of those victims who need it, on both sides of the border."

Current Polish President Andrzej Duda recently signed legislation establishing July 11 as the National Day of Remembrance for Polish victims of the Volyn massacres. The law was passed with near-unanimous parliamentary support and declares that the "atrocities committed between 1939 and 1946" must remain in Poland's national memory.

Poland's Institute of National Remembrance estimates that some 100,000 Poles were killed in the Volyn region, now part of western Ukraine. Ukrainian historians argue that thousands of Ukrainians were also killed in retaliatory actions and insist that the conflict be viewed as mutual ethnic violence rather than genocide.

The first exhumation since 2017, at Puzhnyky, where 50 to 120 Poles were killed, was seen as a breakthrough, with both governments pledging to expand joint efforts.

Read also: ‘Russia’s tactic is obvious’ — Shahed drone ‘terror’ now reaches all of Ukraine


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As Russian missiles rained down on Kyiv on July 11, doctors at Ukraine's largest children's hospital performed a "historic" lifesaving organ transplant from a deceased 4-year-old girl, saving the lives of three critically ill children, according to an official statement.

The National Specialized Children's Hospital Okhmatdyt announced that the girl, brought in from the Zhytomyr Oblast, was declared brain-dead overnight on July 10. With her parents' consent, her heart, liver, and kidneys were donated, the first time in the hospital's history that such a posthumous transplant was carried out.

"This is a story about humanity, the incredible power of a parent's decision, and the chance for life even in the most difficult times," the hospital said in a statement.

The process involved a coordinated effort between Okhmatdyt, the Ukrainian Transplant Coordination Center, and other specialists, all conducted under the threat of ongoing air raids and missile strikes.

Among the recipients was a 16-year-old girl with Wilson's disease, in critical condition and given the highest emergency status. She received a liver transplant. A 14-year-old boy who had been on dialysis for over seven months at Okhmatdyt received the kidneys.

The third recipient, a 12-year-old girl, was given the heart at the Health Ministry's Heart Institute, also under urgent conditions. The operations lasted over 13 hours.

Dr. Oleh Hodyk, a transplant surgeon at Okhmatdyt, said that this was the hospital's first full cycle of brain death diagnosis, organ retrieval, and transplantation.

Okhmatdyt is Ukraine's largest children's medical center, which was struck directly by a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile during one of Russia's deadliest assaults on Kyiv on July 8, 2024, killing 33 people and injuring 121 others.

The attack, which damaged residential buildings and medical facilities, caused international outrage, especially as video evidence and missile fragments confirmed that the hospital was intentionally targeted.


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11
 
 

A 21-year-old Hungarian citizen, Benjamin Aser, was killed in Ukraine on May 24 while fighting as a volunteer against Russia, Hungarian news outlet Telex reported on July 11, citing Ukrainian and Hungarian sources as well as Benjamin's father.

Aser, originally from Hungary, was previously a contracted soldier in the Hungarian Defence Forces. According to Telex, he went missing from his post in March 2023, prompting criminal proceedings. He reportedly told a superior at the time that he intended to go fight in Ukraine.

An undisclosed Ukrainian source told Telex that Aser served in the elite 3rd Separate Assault Brigade. He was reportedly killed while serving with that unit, shortly after his 21st birthday.

The Kyiv Independent has reached out to the 3rd Assault Brigade for comment.

His father, Natan Aser, who now lives in Canada and has received political asylum there, confirmed to Telex that Benjamin is a Hungarian citizen who lived in Canada from 2019 to 2021 before returning to Hungary.

Natan Aser added that his son had autism and "should never have been accepted into the Hungarian army," though he had long dreamed of becoming a soldier.

"He loved military technology and strategy — he was already drawing tanks at the age of eight," his father said.

Natan expressed a desire to have his son buried in Kyiv or Toronto, as he cannot return to Hungary and wishes to be able to visit the grave.

He said his son's commitment to Ukraine was deep and personal: "Benjamin's heart and soul belonged to Ukraine and the Ukrainian people," he told Telex, adding that his son had "clearly taken a stand for Ukraine with his actions and decisions" and would never have returned to Hungary.

Hungary's Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry have not yet responded to Telex's request for comment.

Thousands of foreign nationals have joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces as volunteers since the beginning of the Russian large-scale invasion, with many killed in combat in the past three and a half years.

Hungary's government is broadly seen as the most Russian-friendly among EU and NATO members, with its Prime Minister Viktor Orban repeatedly blocking military support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.

Read also: ‘These were not negotiations’ — Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister on Istanbul talks with Russia in exclusive interview


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Russian attacks killed at least 13 civilians and injured 46 more across Ukraine over the last 24 hours, Ukrainian officials said on July 12.

According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia launched 623 aerial weapons overnight, including 339 Shahed-type drones, various decoy UAVs (unmanned aerial weapons), and 26 Kh-101 cruise missiles.

Ukrainian defenses reportedly downed 344 of them, including 319 Shahed drones and 25 missiles. Additionally, 258 decoy drones disappeared from radars or were intercepted by electronic warfare, according to the statement.

In Chernivtsi Oblast, Governor Ruslan Zaparanyuk said two people were killed in the city of Chernivtsi. Four others were seriously wounded, one of them in critical condition. Ten more sustained minor injuries.

Multiple residential buildings and administrative buildings, shops, and cars were damaged in the city, as well as one house and a vehicle in the Storozhynets community.

In Kharkiv Oblast, four people were injured in strikes across Kharkiv city and nearby towns, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said. Russian forces used glide bombs and various drones, damaging a university building, apartment blocks, cars, and critical infrastructure in several districts, including Kupiansk and Izium.

In Sumy Oblast, four civilians were wounded in drone and artillery attacks on multiple communities, according to regional authorities. Over 60 attacks hit 35 settlements. Damage was reported to houses, vehicles, and utility infrastructure in the Sumy, Seredyna-Buda, and Bilopillia communities.

In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Governor Serhii Lysak reported three deaths. Two people were killed in a morning air strike on the Synelnykove district, and a third man died from injuries sustained in an earlier artillery attack on Nikopol.

In Lviv Oblast, six people were injured in Russian strikes on the city of Lviv, Governor Maksym Kozytsky said. Among the wounded was an 11-year-old boy. Two industrial sites caught fire, and damage was reported to residential buildings, including partial structural collapse and shattered windows.

In Kherson Oblast, Russian forces shelled and used drones against more than 30 towns and villages, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said. Two civilians were killed, and eight were injured. Damage included apartment blocks, houses, an agricultural enterprise, warehouses, vehicles, and farm machinery.

In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, two civilians were killed in Russian attacks, Governor Ivan Fedorov said. Russian forces launched 566 strikes across 16 settlements, including seven air strikes and nearly 400 drone attacks, mostly FPV (first-person-view) drones. Houses, apartments, and vehicles were damaged or destroyed in at least 10 locations.

In Donetsk Oblast, four people were killed and 10 injured in Russian attacks, according to Governor Vadym Filashkin.

President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the attacks and reiterated calls for increased international support for air defense systems.

"The pace of Russia’s aerial strikes demands swift decisions – and it can be curbed through sanctions right now," Zelensky wrote. "More air defense systems are needed, along with investments in interceptor drones, which are already delivering good results."

Read also: ‘Russia’s tactic is obvious’ — Shahed drone ‘terror’ now reaches all of Ukraine


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Norway will provide Ukraine with 25 million Norwegian krone ($2.5 million) to support the country's cybersecurity defenses by the end of 2025, Ukraine's Digital Transformation Ministry announced on July 11.

Norway's new commitment for Ukraine comes as Oslo announced it has become the 12th country to join the Tallinn Mechanism on cybersecurity to help protect Ukraine against cyber threats.

"The Tallinn Mechanism is a key instrument of international support that helps Ukraine resist these attacks while building long-term digital resilience," Norway's Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide said in a statement, as Oslo announced it's participation in the international mechanism during the final day of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome.

Ukraine and 10 partner countries establishedthe Tallinn mechanism in December 2023, with the aim of coordinating civilian cyber capacities to strengthen Ukraine's defense in cyberspace and long-term resilience.

"Norway's accession to the Tallinn Mechanism is a powerful political gesture of support for Ukraine and a signal of the democratic world's readiness to further consolidate efforts to counter cyber threats and strengthen the global cybersecurity architecture," Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs for Digital Development Anton Demyokhin said in a statement.

Having previously joined the Tallinn mechanism as an observer, Norway joins Canada, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Poland, Sweden, the U.K., and the U.S., as a permanent member of the international mechanism.

Since the start of Russia's full-scale war in February 2022, Russia has launched thousands of [cyberattacks](https://kyivindependent.com/massive-hacker-attack-reported-on-ukrainian-bank-monobank/) on Ukraine's critical infrastructure, including power grids, telecom networks, the financial system, in an attempt to disrupt the country's abilities to sustain its defenses.

In addition to coordinating cyberattacks against Ukraine, the Kremlin continues to target Ukraine's Western allies as it attempts to disrupt military supplies for the embattled country and damage Western resolve.

Norway's cybersecurity support comes following its announcement on July 10 that Oslo will commit $200 million aimed at restoring and transforming Ukraine's energy sector. Norway also separately committed 42 million euros ($49 million) to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund, targeting infrastructure protection against Russian attacks and development of more sustainable energy networks.

Read also: With partner finances, Ukraine ‘will shoot down everything’ amid escalating Russian drone attacks, Zelensky says


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Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) on July 12 published an audio allegedly capturing a company commander from Russia's infamous 155th Marine Brigade issuing an order to "cut off the head" of a Ukrainian soldier.

"Cut off the head, impale it on a pike, throw it the f**k away," says the voice attributed by HUR to the commander of the brigade's 2nd Air Assault Company.

The intelligence agency said the order, intercepted on July 10, concerned a Ukrainian prisoner of war (POW). The Kyiv Independent could not verify the audio's authenticity.

The 155th Marine Brigade, currently deployed in Ukraine's northeast Sumy Oblast, has been accused of numerous war crimes and atrocities during the full-scale war.

Ukrainian forces have repeatedly targeted the unit's command posts with precision strikes, killing its commander, Colonel Sergey Ilyin, in an attack in Kursk Oblast on July 2, HUR said.

Twenty-two people, including Major General Mikhail Gudkov, a deputy head of the Russian Navy, were reportedly killed during the Ukrainian HIMARS strike against the brigade's command post in Korenevo in Kursk Oblast on that day.

Ilyn's death was also confirmed by Russian authorities earlier this week, though the cause and date were not disclosed.

"For inhumane torture and barbaric killings of captured Ukrainian military personnel and civilians, the 155th Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces has become one of Vladimir Putin's favorite units," the Ukrainian intelligence agency said.

HUR recalled a case when the unit's flag was raised behind Putin during his press conference in December 2024.

Service members of the 155th Brigade have also been linked to war crimes committed during the occupation of Bucha, Irpin, and Hostomel in Kyiv Oblast during the early months of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

Other Russian units have been accused of war crimes throughout the full-scale war. Ukrainian prosecutors documented at least 273 Ukrainian POWs summarily executed by their Russian captors.

Kyiv and the U.N. have raised alarm over the rising number of such cases, saying they point to a systematic policy by Russia to murder Ukrainian captives. Half of the document cases were recorded this year alone.

Read also: 2 killed, 20 injured as Russia launches missile, drone attacks striking Ukrainian cities far from front line


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Ukraine will begin receiving hundreds of domestically produced long-range weapon systems by the end of July under a German-financed agreement, German Major General Christian Freuding told the German ZDF news channel on July 11.

The weapons will be supplied in a "high triple-digit quantity," he said, referring to a deal between Ukraine's Defense Ministry and local arms producers that Berlin agreed to fund in late May.

"We need weapons systems that can reach far into the depth of Russian territory — to hit depots, command centers, airfields and aircraft," Freuding said, adding that Germany is "ready to provide such systems."

The general, who heads the Ukraine task force at the German Defense Ministry, did not specify what kind of long-range systems Germany is financing.

Ukraine is developing a number of long-range capabilities, including ballistic missiles, long-range drones, and drone-missile hybrids to strike deep inside the Russian rear amid dwindling stockpiles of Western long-range weapons.

The Ukrainian military has previously received the Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles from the U.K. and France and ATACMS from the U.S., but Germany has so far refused to supply its own Taurus cruise missiles.

Freuding did not confirm whether Berlin plans to greenlight the supply of Taurus missiles when asked by the reporter.

The general, who spoke from Kyiv, acknowledged that the battlefield situation remains "militarily tense," with Russian forces holding the initiative for "several weeks, if not months," and increased pressure on major Ukrainian cities from the air.

The general also said Germany is in ongoing negotiations with the United States over the potential purchase and transfer of one or two Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, describing talks as "ongoing for weeks at all levels."

Ukraine has been calling on its partners to enhance its air defence capabilities, as Russia has escalated its large-scale aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities, including those far from the front line.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on May 28 that Berlin would help finance the production and procurement of Ukrainian-made long-range weapons systems.

Merz made the comments during a joint press conference with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Berlin, where he also announced support for continuing Starlink satellite operations in Ukraine.

"There will be no restrictions on long-range weapons," Merz said at the time. "Ukraine will be able to fully defend itself and also strike military targets outside the territory of Ukraine."

Merz described the deal as "the beginning of a new form of military-industrial cooperation between our countries."

Read also: As leaders attend Ukraine Recovery Conference, rebuilding is distant dream for Ukrainians who need it most


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Russia has lost around 1,032,690 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on July 12.

The number includes 1,070 casualties Russian forces suffered just over the past day.

According to the report, Russia has also lost 11,013 tanks, 22,980 armored fighting vehicles, 54,822 vehicles and fuel tanks, 30,194 artillery systems, 1,437 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,193 air defense systems, 421 airplanes, 340 helicopters, 45,248 drones, 28 ships and boats, and one submarine.

Read also: ‘Russia’s tactic is obvious’ — Shahed drone ‘terror’ now reaches all of Ukraine


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17
 
 

Germany will provide Ukraine with a grant worth 40.5 million euro ($47.4 million) to support small and medium-sized Ukrainian businesses, Ukraine's Finance Ministry announced on July 11.

The agreement, announced at the tail-end of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome as a means to strengthen Kyiv's country's economic development, will be provided through Germany's state development bank KfW, according to the Finance Ministry. The funding will be distributed through Ukraine's Entrepreneurship Development Fund (EDF).

The combined loan and grants funding for businesses, distributed through Ukrainian banks, will primarily serve businesses in "de-occupied and war-affected territories," with the average distribution totaling 250,000 euros.

The EDF will also provide banks with long-term liquidity to be able to fund small and medium-sized businesses with loans with favorable repayment terms, the ministry said.

The announcement comes as Kyiv secured other key financial commitments from Western allies at the Ukraine Recovery Conference, including a Dutch pledge for $350 million to support Ukraine's reconstruction and economic recovery through 2026 and the World Bank's commitment for $200 million over the next five years to prepare Ukrainian projects for large-scale reconstruction.

In addition to supporting Ukraine's economic development, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a press conference in Rome on July 10 that Germany is also ready to purchase two of three Patriot air defense systems, amid an increase in Russian attacks.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who met Zelensky on the sidelines of the conference, also suggested on July 10 that Russian assets frozen by the West should not be released until Moscow pays back at least 500 billion euros (over $580 billion) in compensation to Ukraine.

Read also: Russia must pay at least 500 billion euros in compensation to Ukraine, Germany’s Merz says


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Editor's note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

Russia continued its attacks on western Ukrainian cities overnight on July 12, striking communities far from the front line with drone swarms and missile attacks for the third straight night.

Multiple explosions were heard in the western cities of Lviv and Chernivtsi between 3 a.m. - 4:45 a.m. local time, according to Kyiv Independent journalists on the ground. Public broadcaster Suspilne also reported explosion in the city of Lutsk around 3:30 a.m.

In Lviv, a fire broke out on the roof of a "non-residential" building in the Zaliznychnyi district of the city, Mayor Andrii Sadovy reported. A residential building was also reportedly struck in the city, as emergency crews work to assess the reported damage.

Local officials also reported drones approaching Lviv, Ternopil, Volyn oblasts in the early morning hours of July 12, with Ukraine's Air Force warning of dozens of attack drones heading towards areas along the country's western border.

Later in the evening, Ukraine's Air Force also warned of dozens of ballistic missile attacks heading towards the western part of the country.

Poland's Air Force said on X that the country scrambled fighter jets to protect Polish airspace amid the attack.

No information was immediately available as to whether any casualties occurred as a result of the attack.

As Russian air attacks have intensified in recent months, its tactics have visibly shifted, with a growing number of missile and drone attacks now targeting western regions once considered relatively safe.

The renewed attack comes just days after Russia carried out its largest air assault yet on July 9, launching a record 741 drones, with the western city of Lutsk experiencing what local officials described as the heaviest bombardment to date.

Just a day later, on July 10, Russian drones struck Chernivtsi, located just north of Ukraine's border with Romania. The wider overnight attack on the country killed at least two people and 28 injured in Kyiv.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 10 that Russia intends to drastically escalate its drone attacks, potentially launching up to 1,000 drones per day.

Zelensky said in an evening address on July 11 that U.S. military aid shipments to Ukraine, including air defense weaponry, have been restored amid a previous pause in weapons deliveries. In recent days, U.S. President Donald Trump has railed against intensified Russian attacks on Ukraine, adding that the United States would provide Ukraine with additional shipments of weapons.

Read also: Russia’s new drone tactic — rolling out mass terror across all of Ukraine


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The World Bank will provide $200 million over the next five years to prepare Ukrainian projects for large-scale reconstruction, the Economy Ministry announced on July 11.

The funding will be available under the five-year PREPARE program, which Ukraine launched by signing an agreement with the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA) during the Ukraine Recovery Conference.

Following three years of destruction caused by Russia's full-scale war, Ukraine needs $524 billion for recovery and reconstruction, according to a U.N. report released in February.

The Economy Ministry said that with World Bank financing, Ukrainian reconstruction projects will be able to move to implementation faster by bringing them up to international investor standards.

"Together with the World Bank, we are creating a systematic 'preparation factory' (for reconstruction projects) that minimizes delays, increases transparency, and opens the path to multi-billion investments in the coming years," Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko said in a press release.

The first grant of $44.3 million will be directed toward collecting and preparing state assets for investment, the Economy Ministry said. The funding will be available starting in August.

The first grant will also partially finance the development of the Public-Private Partnership Agency, which will implement the program.

Read also: Trump’s envoy Kellogg to visit Ukraine on July 14 amid military aid confusion


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U.S. military aid shipments to Ukraine have been restored amid a previous pause in weapons deliveries, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an evening address on July 11.

"We have received political signals at the highest level — good signals — including from the United States and from our European friends. According to all reports, aid shipments have been restored," he said.

The United States halted weapons shipments to Ukraine amid a capability review, the White House and Pentagon previously confirmed, with U.S. President Donald Trump on July 3 denying the pause.

Days later, Trump said that the United States would provide Ukraine with additional shipments of weapons amid intensified Russian attacks.

In his address, Zelensky noted that Kyiv will continue to discuss military aid deliveries with U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg.

"We will continue our work next week with the American side at the military level, in particular, our military will be working with General Kellogg," Zelensky said.

Kellogg is set to arrive in Ukraine on July 14 for a week-long visit. Zelensky and Kellogg met days earlier ahead of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome.

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Kellogg are expected to meet in Kyiv, with Kellogg's spokesperson Morgan Murphy saying the meeting was "set up before news of the arms pause came to light last week."

Trump and Zelensky spoke on July 4, agreeing to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses amid intensified Russian strikes.

Zelensky described his recent phone call with Trump as "the best conversation in all this time" in an evening address on July 5.

"This was probably the best conversation in all this time, it was maximally productive. We discussed the topic of air defenses. I am grateful for the readiness to help," Zelensky said, describing his phone call with Trump.

A day prior to speaking with Zelensky, Trump held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin in an effort to discuss ending Russia's war against Ukraine.

Trump described his July 3 conversation with Putin as disappointing, saying that the call "didn't make any progress" in stopping Russia's war.

The weapons reportedly held back during the U.S. aid halt include two dozen Patriot air defense missiles, over two dozen Stinger air-defense systems, precision artillery rounds, Hellfire missiles, drones, and more than 90 AIM air-to-air missiles launched from F-16 fighter jets.

Read also: Russia’s new drone tactic — rolling out mass terror across all of Ukraine


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21
 
 

As Russia intensifies its air strikes against Ukraine, its tactics have visibly shifted, with a growing number of missile and drone attacks now targeting western regions once considered relatively safe.

Overnight on July 9, cities across Ukraine came under the largest air assault yet, with the western city of Lutsk experiencing what local officials described as the heaviest bombardment to date.

Just a day later, on July 10, Russian drones struck Chernivtsi, another western city, where residents heard the sound of Shahes drones, known for their loud, buzzing engines, for the first time.

"It's truly terrifying. Your heart jumps out of your chest when you hear the sound of a Shahed drone, then gunfire, then an explosion," Anastasiia Yatsenko, a resident of Chernivtsi, told the Kyiv Independent.

"The fear just went through my whole body, everything felt numb, and my head was foggy," said Yeva, another resident. "I grabbed my baby as he was — naked, just in a diaper — and ran barefoot to the (underground) parking lot."

Experts believe that the recent wave of Russian strikes indicates a change in the Kremlin's strategy.

"They've never had a technical problem reaching western Ukraine, whether Lviv or any other region," Israel-based military analyst David Sharp told the Kyiv Independent.

"It has always been a question of priorities."

Read also: ‘These were not negotiations’ — Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister on Istanbul talks with Russia in exclusive interview

Russia's drone doctrine

Russia's widespread use of Shahed drones began in late 2022. Their cost and relatively easy production have made them central to Moscow's air assault strategy.

"Russia has bet on drones as a weapon to strike targets in Ukraine," Sharp said.

"The calculation is that they can inflict military damage while also dealing psychological blows. They've decided that mass drone attacks are worth it."

Between Sept. 13, 2022, and Aug. 30, 2023, Russian forces fired nearly 2,000 Shaheds into Ukraine, according to Airwars, a London-based conflict monitoring organization.

That number has surged in 2025 — in June alone, Moscow launched a record 5,337 Shahed-type drones.

Wreckage of car lies amid debris in the yard of damaged house after Russian drone attack on July 9, 2025 in Nedryhailiv, Ukraine. )Oleksandr Oleksiienko/Kordon.Media/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)

Sharp noted that while Ukraine's air defenses are highly effective against cruise missiles, drones present a different kind of threat.

"Cruise missiles are expensive, and their numbers are limited — both financially and, apparently, due to production capacity," he said. "So when Russia gained the ability to produce a large number of drones, it seized the opportunity."

Attacks on western Ukraine

For much of the war, Shahed drones primarily targeted central and southern Ukraine, hitting cities like Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, and Kyiv. But in recent weeks, these attacks have expanded westward.

On July 9, Russia launched 728 Shahed-type drones and decoys across the country.

Volyn Oblast Governor Ivan Rudnytskyi said that nearly 50 drones and five missiles were in the airspace above the region overnight, with the majority aimed at regional capital Lutsk.

Lutsk Mayor Ihor Polishchuk said the attack damaged an "industrial site" as well as a garage, in what he called the "most massive Russian attack" on the city.

Serhii Bratchuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Army's Southern Division, said the escalation is part of a broader strategy by Russia to instill fear and undermine confidence.

"The tactic is to intensify people's sense of fear, to deepen the feeling that there is no safety and no confidence in the state or in the defense forces all around the country," he told the Kyiv Independent.

"This is pure terror, which means all regions are potentially under threat."

Bratchuk said Russia's tactic is to saturate air defense systems by overwhelming them with Shaheds and decoys — and to make sure no part of Ukraine feels safe.

"Russia's tactic is obvious," he said. "They pick a town — usually large or mid-sized — and then relentlessly terrorize it to the maximum extent."

"Unlike before, when these attacks happened mostly at night, now they can strike throughout the day. This is pure terror — deliberate terror against the entire country."

Stretching Ukraine's defenses

Beyond terrorizing civilians, the drone campaign is designed to erode Ukraine's military capacity, Sharp noted.

"They shouldn't be denied their intent to achieve military goals," he said. "One key objective for Russia is to stretch Ukraine's resources by forcing them to intercept Shahed drones and cruise missiles."

He explained that many air defense units are stuck protecting cities in the rear, rather than being deployed near the front line, where they could pose more direct threats to Russian troops.

A rescuer pours water onto burning cars during a response effort to a Russian drone attack on Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on June 18, 2025. (Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

"If it weren't for this need, those soldiers and commanders from these fire teams could focus on other crucial tasks on or near the front line," he said.

Sharp also noted that Western military aid packages are allocated in financial terms, meaning resources used for air defense could have otherwise been directed to other needs.

"If Ukraine didn't have to intercept Shaheds near Lutsk, that funding might have been used for HIMARS missiles or other weapons."

What comes next?

Both Bratchuk and Sharp warned that Russia is unlikely to scale back its drone production. Instead, they expect an increase in attacks using both Shaheds and decoy drones designed to drain Ukraine's air defense systems and rattle the population.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 10 that Russia intends to drastically escalate its drone attacks, potentially launching up to 1,000 drones per day.

"They're not standing still," Sharp said. "They use cheap decoy drones that drain resources and fray nerves — both among civilians and the military."

Bratchuk noted the need for advanced weaponry to enhance Ukraine's mobile fire teams in intercepting Russian air assaults.

"They need better weapons — heavy machine guns, man-portable air defense systems, and possibly light combat aircraft capable of shooting down drones."

He also highlighted the importance of developing interceptor drones to counter the threat. Ultimately, however, Bratchuk said that the solution must come from striking at the source of the drone threat itself.

"The ideal option is to eliminate the source of all this trouble," Bratchuk said, expressing hope that Ukraine's partners would provide the necessary weapons.

"We can't handle this alone right now."

Anna Fratsyvir contributed to reporting.

Read also: As leaders attend Ukraine Recovery Conference, rebuilding is distant dream for Ukrainians who need it most

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The European Union is considering imposing a new Russian oil price cap as part of its 18th sanctions package against Moscow, Bloomberg reported on July 11.

The proposed price cap would be set at 15% below the market rate based on a 10-week average, lowering the threshold to $50 down from the current cap of $60, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.

The EU has been unable to pass the sanctions due to opposition from Slovakia, whose authorities have increasingly aligned themselves with Moscow and oppose the package.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhna has previously said the Baltic country may also veto the EU's 18th sanctions package against Moscow if the oil price cap is not lowered to increase pressure on Russia.

The sanctions are still in the works as the bloc faces additional disagreements among member states regarding changes to the oil price cap.

Mediterranean members, including Cyprus, Greece, and Malta, have opposed a tougher Russian oil price cap but are open to the proposal, the sources told Bloomberg.

The three countries have been reluctant to impose a new cap without support from the U.S. or the Group of Seven (G7).

The countries have softened their stance as oil prices have fallen again following an initial uptick amid the U.S. bombing of nuclear facilities in Iran, people familiar with the matter said.

Support for a new oil price cap from U.S. President Donald Trump would make a substantial difference, they added.

The new oil price cap would not be set the same way as the current $60 cap per barrel and instead would be revised every three months based on market rates.

A decision has not been made by the EU and requires unanimous support from all of the bloc's members, the people familiar with the matter said.

The EU's executive branch is prepared to offer Slovakia assurances in exchange for its support for the 18th sanctions package, one of the sources added.

EU ambassadors reportedly failed to approve the 18th sanctions package during a July 9 Committee of Permanent Representatives meeting due to opposition from Slovakia.

Unlike Hungary, which has consistently opposed sanctions and military aid for Ukraine, Slovakia has not previously blocked new EU measures.

Tsakhna previously said that the 18th sanctions package was originally meant to include a tougher Russian oil price cap, lowering the maximum cost per barrel from $60 to $45.

Meanwhile, there are signals that the G7 nations are ready to impose an even lower Russian oil price cap, he added.

Tsakhna noted that if a strong 18th EU sanctions package were passed alongside a hard-hitting sanctions bill by the U.S. Senate, Russia would feel serious pressure.

The bloc is set to introduce the "toughest sanctions... imposed (on Russia) in the last three years" in coordination with U.S. senators, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said in a television interview on July 7.

Read also: Ukraine war latest: Kyiv behind new pipeline explosion in Siberia, drone strikes reported at Russian aircraft plant


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23
 
 

Russian troops have been tasked with establishing a buffer zone up to 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) deep into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine's military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov said in an interview with Bloomberg, published on July 11.

Budanov's remarks come as Russian troops continue their offensive in the neighboring Donetsk Oblast, pushing closer to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast — a major industrial region in central Ukraine.

In mid-June, Ukraine's military denied reports that Russian troops had entered the region, with President Volodymyr Zelensky saying that Ukrainian troops had intercepted Russian reconnaissance units attempting to breach Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

"It’s not realistic for Russia to seize all of Donetsk Oblast by the end of the year," Budanov said.

According to Budanov, Russia’s earlier announcement of its entry into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast serves a political goal.

Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nizar al-Rifai/The Kyiv Independent)

The Russian Defense Ministry on July 7 claimed to have seized Dachne, which would mark the first village to be under Russian control in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

The Ukrainian military denied the claimed capture, calling it "disinformation."

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast lies further west and has not seen significant Russian incursions, it is frequently targeted with missile, drone, and aerial bomb strikes.

Russian troops have been escalating their assaults in the area and are attempting to breach into the region.

Read also: Dnipropetrovsk village likely contested despite Russia’s claim of its capture


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Law enforcement agencies are conducting searches at the home and military unit of Vitaliy Shabunin, head of the Anti-Corruption Action Center's (AntAC) executive board, who is currently serving in the army, the center said on July 11.

Ukraine's State Bureau of Investigation also seized Shabunin's phone, the statement said.

According to the center, the searches are taking place without a court order.

The exact reason for the searches remains unclear, but Shabunin's team believes the move may be connected to a criminal case involving Viktor Yushko, a serviceman and former commander of the 207th battalion of the territorial defense of Kyiv, where Shabunin served at the beginning of the full-scale war.

"We consider these searches to be another wave of attack on Vitaliy Shabunin and the AntAC for criticizing the Presidential Office and (Presidential Office head) Andrii Yermak personally," the AntAC's statement read.

Yushko is under investigation for alleged abuse of power, accused of authorizing fictitious business trips for military personnel, including Shabunin.

Yushko is suspected of approving Shabunin's business trip to the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NACP), allegedly allowing him to avoid combat duties.

A day earlier on July 10, Shabunin said he had been reassigned from his post in the city of Kharkiv to a front-line brigade — a move he believes was linked to his anti-corruption efforts and criticism of the government.

In May, Shabunin told the Kyiv Independent that three criminal cases had been opened against him since the start of the full-scale war.

Shabunin, one of Ukraine's most influential anti-corruption crusaders, believes the cases to be politically motivated, linking them to the President's Office and controversial Deputy Chief of Staff Oleh Tatarov.

The activist has regularly criticized Tatarov, who was charged with bribery in 2020. Law enforcement agencies have obstructed and eventually closed the case against Tatarov.

Tatarov allegedly holds considerable influence over law enforcement agencies, according to investigative journalists. President Volodymyr Zelensky has refused to suspend or fire Tatarov despite the controversies.

The Kyiv Independent reached out to the Presidential Office for comment but has not received an immediate response.

Read also: With partner finances, Ukraine ‘will shoot down everything’ amid escalating Russian drone attacks, Zelensky says


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Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, war has become a daily reality for thousands of Ukrainian children. As it drags on three and a half years later, some Ukrainian teenagers are coming to terms with the possibility that their generation might be the next to join the country’s defense against Russian aggression. Some Ukrainian military units, such as the Azov Brigade, offer boot camps for teenagers to teach them the basics of self-defense, first aid, dry firing, and other survival skills — helping them prepare for both the realities of today and the uncertainties of the future.


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