collapse of the old society

“If this turns out to be a major fire year, it’s going to be a shit show,” said Dr Hugh Safford, a fire ecologist at the University of California, Davis, who spent more than two decades working for the US Forest Service (USFS) before retiring in 2021.

Suely they've been busy raking the forest ?

The study shows that such extreme events are becoming more frequent, longer-lasting and more severe

archived (Wayback Machine)

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/67063993

Highlights

Global & regional analysis of all GHG drivers (1820–2050)

Economic growth (+81Gt) overwhelmed efficiency gains (−31Gt)

Carbon intensity must immediately fall 3 × faster (−2.25 %/yr) to 2050.

Regional drivers: population vs affluence patterns vary sharply.

Reveals unprecedented gap between trends and climate needs.

Abstract

Identifying the socio-economic drivers behind greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to design mitigation policies. Existing studies predominantly analyze short-term CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, neglecting long-term trends and other GHGs. We examine the drivers of all greenhouse gas emissions between 1820–2050 globally and regionally. The Industrial Revolution triggered sustained emission growth worldwide—initially through fossil fuel use in industrialized economies but also as a result of agricultural expansion and deforestation. Globally, technological innovation and energy mix changes prevented 31 (17–42) Gt CO2e emissions over two centuries. Yet these gains were dwarfed by 81 (64–97) Gt CO2e resulting from economic expansion, with regional drivers diverging sharply: population growth dominated in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, while rising affluence was the main driver of emissions elsewhere. Meeting climate targets now requires the carbon intensity of GDP to decline 3 times faster than the global best 30-year historical rate (–2.25 % per year), which has not improved over the past five decades. Failing such an unprecedented technological change or a substantial contraction of the global economy, by 2050 global mean surface temperatures will rise more than 3 °C above pre-industrial levels.

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This is our latest attempt to get to the root of what men are going through—not just what’s happening, but why.

It’s worth noting that the later stages of capitalism, along with corporate greed and an evolving career landscape, affect all of us. But the exploitation of grifters in the manosphere is unique to men.

Think we missed something? Leave a comment and help us fill in the gaps

00:00 - Intro: What Happened to Men? Why are so many men falling apart? This isn’t just about loneliness or school stats—it’s about decades of lies, political betrayal, and a fantasy that was never built to last.

00:55 - Chapter 1: The Golden Era That Never Was The post-WWII American Dream promised men stability and status—but only for a select few. When the economy changed, the myth stayed, and resentment took root.

04:46 - Chapter 2: Reagan and the Great Betrayal Reaganomics didn’t just cut taxes—it gutted the working class. A new gospel was born: hustle harder, blame the poor, and ignore the billionaires laughing all the way to the bank.

07:30 - Chapter 3: The Masculinity Vacuum Once purpose disappeared, the grift moved in. Grievance merchants filled the void with rage, cosplay masculinity, and a monthly subscription box for insecurity.

10:46 - Chapter 4: The Right-Wing Pickup Artist The right didn’t rescue men—they monetized their confusion. Trump & Co. turned pain into politics and sold fascism in flannel.

14:30 - Chapter 5: How to Fix It (No Promo Code Required) No more gimmicks. No more gurus. Rebuilding manhood means ditching the cosplay, owning your choices, and choosing contribution over clout.

19:00 - Outro: Build Something Real The challenge isn’t to reclaim a lost identity—it’s to build something better. For those done chasing nostalgia, the work starts now.

archived (Wayback Machine)

archived (Wayback Machine)

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/66968363

Abstract

In contrast to most integrated assessment models, with limited transparency on damage functions and recursive temporal dynamics, we use a unique large-dimensional computational global climate and trade model, GTAP-DynW, to directly project the possible intertemporal impacts of water and heat stress on global food supply and food security to 2050. The GTAP-DynW model uses GTAP production and trade data for 141 countries and regions, with varying water and heat stress baselines, and results are aggregated into 30 countries/regions and 30 commodity sectors. Blue water stress projections are drawn from WRI source material and a GTAP-Water database to incorporate dynamic changes in water resources and their availability in agricultural production and international trade, thus providing a more general measure for severe food insecurity from water and heat stress damages with global warming. Findings are presented for three representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SPP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 (population growth only for SSPs) and project: (a) substantial declines, as measured by GCal, in global food production of some 6%, 10%, and 14% to 2050 and (b) the number of additional people with severe food insecurity by 2050, correspondingly, increases by 556 million, 935 million, and 1.36 billion compared to the 2020 model baseline.

A new set of detailed clues gleaned from ancient fossil reefs on the Seychelle Islands shows an increasing likelihood that human-caused warming will raise the global average sea level at least 3 feet by 2100, at the high end of the projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Due to regional variations, sea level would rise twice that much in some tropical areas, causing misery for millions of people living in low-lying coastal zones, including islands like the Maldives, in the Indian Ocean, which would be completely swamped by 6 feet of sea level rise.

We live in interesting times (in the Chinese.proverb sense)

Climate models that give a low warming from increases in greenhouse gases do not match satellite measurements. Future warming will likely be worse than thought unless society acts, according to a new study published in Science.

So, worse then thought then, we are after all barely pretending to reduce emissions amd in many cases weve eschewed even that.

I find the verbage of "average sized dead zone" to be an interesting gauge of how normalized environmental destruction is becoming. As if a massive section of hypoxic oceaniss to be expected.

I'm going to highlight this paragraph:

It's worth saying, too, as many headlines point out, that meeting our target temperature of +1.5°C means we still lose the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We should hope for this target, even if it's all but impossible, because it's certainly better than the alternative. But, as I've made clear, I don't think it's gonna happen.

A billion people live in areas 40 ft or less above sea level, areas that will be flooded when - not if, WHEN - the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets go. A billion climate refugees. That's not a "possibility". That's inevitable even in the best case scenario of 1.5 C. The most likely scenario - 3 to 4 C by 2100 - is exponentially worse.

Solarpunk is about radical hope. Plenty of the visions for a solarpunk future are unlikely or improbable. But none of those visions should be impossible.

A future where the seas don't rise? That's impossible.

A future where we slow the rising seas through both individual and collective action, prepare global civilization for the oncoming crisis with love, unity, and respect for every single person's basic humanity, and end capitalism? That's still worth fighting for.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.nz/post/23662164

Global public debt could increase to 100 percent of global gross domestic product by the end of the decade if current trends continue, according to projections in our latest Fiscal Monitor. The rising ratio of public debt to GDP reflects renewed economic pressures as well as the consequences of pandemic-related fiscal support, according to our report. This trend raises fresh concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability as many countries face rising budget challenges.

The Chart of the Week shows that about a third of countries, accounting for 80 percent of global GDP, have public debt that’s both higher than it was before the pandemic and rising at a faster pace. More than two-thirds of the 175 economies in our study now have heavier public debt burdens than before COVID spread in 2020.

https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2025/05/29/debt-is-higher-and-rising-faster-in-80-percent-of-global-economy

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