Climate Change

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Cmon Japan, get it together.

Meeting climate targets now requires the carbon intensity of GDP to decline 3 times faster than the global best 30-year historical rate (–2.25 % per year), which has not improved over the past five decades. Failing such an unprecedented technological change or a substantial contraction of the global economy, by 2050 global mean surface temperatures will rise more than 3 °C above pre-industrial levels.

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Most of these emissions were from fossil fuels and industry.

This statement is extremely misleading, but also not surprising.

The animal exploitation industry is the leading cause of climate change.

A Critical Look at UN IPCC's Emissions Accounting

From the above:

Mainstream climate spokespeople are now promoting this “green growth” story and recommending the rapid phaseout of fossil fuels. This is dangerous because the world can expect a 50% increase in global warming ERF in the short term if such rapid phaseout recommendations are actually implemented without addressing the Cow in the Room as most government policies are currently configured. This is suicidal.

If and when Hansen et al.’s calculation that the cooling impact of SO2 has been underestimated by 1 W/m2 in IPCC AR6 is validated, then the cooling gases co-emitted with fossil fuel combustion would result in 2.3 W/m2 of cooling ERF from fossil fuel sources alone. Then, phasing down fossil fuel use rapidly would cause anthropogenic global warming ERF to rapidly increase from 2.6 W/m2 to 4.9 W/m2, an 87% increase in a matter of a few weeks.

related: Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed? (Hansen et al, 2025)

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• ScienceDaily article
• research cited

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• Recent data from the University of Maryland show the tropics lost 6.7 million hectares (16.6 million acres) of primary rainforest in 2024 — nearly double the loss of 2023 and the highest on record.
• Six Latin American countries were in the top 10 nations for primary tropical forest loss.
• In the Amazon, forest loss more than doubled from 2023 to 2024, with more than half the result of wildfires. Other key drivers include agricultural expansion and criminal networks that increasingly threaten the region through gold mining, drug trafficking and other illicit activities.
• Fire was the leading driver of forest loss (49.5%), destroying 2.84 million hectares (7 million acres) of forest cover in Brazil, Bolivia and Mexico alone.

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• CNN article
• PNAS article cited

Archived copies of the article:

• archive.today - should eventually load, but hasn't as of posting time
• web.archive.org - has text but key diagrams don't load

The key thing here is that the less overshoot the better, and the amount of overshoot we can afford is small.

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• National Observer article
• research cited

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cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/67063993

Highlights

Global & regional analysis of all GHG drivers (1820–2050)

Economic growth (+81Gt) overwhelmed efficiency gains (−31Gt)

Carbon intensity must immediately fall 3 × faster (−2.25 %/yr) to 2050.

Regional drivers: population vs affluence patterns vary sharply.

Reveals unprecedented gap between trends and climate needs.

Abstract

Identifying the socio-economic drivers behind greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to design mitigation policies. Existing studies predominantly analyze short-term CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, neglecting long-term trends and other GHGs. We examine the drivers of all greenhouse gas emissions between 1820–2050 globally and regionally. The Industrial Revolution triggered sustained emission growth worldwide—initially through fossil fuel use in industrialized economies but also as a result of agricultural expansion and deforestation. Globally, technological innovation and energy mix changes prevented 31 (17–42) Gt CO2e emissions over two centuries. Yet these gains were dwarfed by 81 (64–97) Gt CO2e resulting from economic expansion, with regional drivers diverging sharply: population growth dominated in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, while rising affluence was the main driver of emissions elsewhere. Meeting climate targets now requires the carbon intensity of GDP to decline 3 times faster than the global best 30-year historical rate (–2.25 % per year), which has not improved over the past five decades. Failing such an unprecedented technological change or a substantial contraction of the global economy, by 2050 global mean surface temperatures will rise more than 3 °C above pre-industrial levels.

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“All models are wrong” could just mean that all models include some idealizations or abstractions. And just as Box says, models that employ such idealizations and abstractions can still be advantageous. Indeed, a highly idealized model that leaves out tons of real-world processes will be much easier to understand than a model that tries to capture, say, every gust of wind and every drop of rain.

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